War....Battle.... between 2 Types of Investors....

Put your hand on your heart and ask yourself till date how much did you earn in stock market and have deposited that profit in your Bank Account and actually used that profit on you and your family or for some other reason best known to you.... hahaha.... anyways jokes apart....

There are 2 Types of Investors...
1.... Wise and Smart Investors
2.... Fool Investors

The Ratio is very dismal betWEen These two types of Investors....

Wise and Smart Investors percentage in Stock Market is only 2%...
Fool Investors percentage in Stock Market is almost 98%...

Well you can argue about the figures but the main point I like to highlight that we all fall in the category of 98% and we are the ones who lose money to the rest 2% of the people who are more wise and Smarter than us.... But because of our over confidence bias we will not accept the fact that we fall in the 98% category of the investors...and believe that we can definitely and easily beat the other 2% of the Investors.... The Battle is between the 98% and the 2% of the Investors.... Because ultimately and Finally Because of our stupid thinking and Strong Emotions our Wealth goes to these 2% Smart Investors....
So be sensible when Investing your hard earned money and try to be on the 2% category of Investors even though your returns are little less because atleast your principal Money is Protected....

I might be wrong about my perspective and understanding so please take the advice of your financial planner....

NTPC...11th Company to hit my Formula Purchasing price...

NTPC...11th Company to hit my Formula Purchasing price...Today only removed My Formula Purchasing Price for NTPC and saw it already had hit my prices in 2016/17....

Year                         First Price                      Second Price                           Actual Price

2016/17                     150                                   135                                125 (8th August 2016)
2017/18                     150                                   133                                153 (2nd June 2017)

There must be many companies touching or going below My Formula Purchasing Price...But have limited my search to very few companies...NTPC was added in my Portfolio just 20 days back and today only i did my Formula Purchasing Price analysis for NTPC....and got the above results...

In 2008...Ntpc made a high of 280 and from there onwards it has been falling continuously till April 2016....and from there onwards today it is at 174....It made a lifetime low of 107....in 2015/16

But note NTPC at Current price is a very long term investment option....Please consult your financial advisor for stock selection and for that purpose for buying recommendation....

Coal India....Contrarian Buy....

today have purchased Coal India @ 241...as a contrarian buy...Totally neglected stock...out of the list of other investors....Zero momentum...Coal india hated by almost everybody...lots of negativity spoken about the company...so makes a good buying bet...Zero Speculation...Almost 47% down from lifetime highs... of @447... From Fancy stock in the year 2015 today it is dying a slow death...It might go down to 175/- also but will still buy more in the downfall for long term investing of say atleast 8 to 10 years....

Sun Pharma Trend Reversal...

I can see a strong trend reversal towards the upside for Sun Pharma from these price levels @468...in the coming few weeks....

ICICI bank....TATA Global Beverages....Correction prediction

Please note the below stock prices are no recommendation and i do not in any circumstances am advising to buy...sell or trade in the below mentioned stocks...

The price target of the below stocks might be achieved when Nifty touches around 8800....9000 in the coming few months from today....

ICICI Bank should correct atleast to the levels of 263....
TATA Beverages should correct to the levels of 175...
SBI Bank should correct to the levels of 252...

Nifty COrrEctIon hAS STArted....

Read 13th July Message on Nifty in my previous blog...So finally the correction has started as per my calculation and gut feeling.... but guessing game is correct only with probability of 50/50... The levels i am looking forward for nifty to make a bottom in these correction is 8800 in the coming few months...also what i think that nifty will correct slowly and by December 2017 or by January 2018 the correction should get over and by February 2018 the Bull trend should resume again its northwards journey...

Please dont take the above article as a recommendation and consult your Financial Advisor before Purcashing or Selling any assets...

How to Evaluate a company.....Part 3

The rogues

We have analysed 7 companies which destroyed shareholder wealth due to promoters' and managements' incompetence and greed. Read what we have learnt

By Vikas Vardhan | Aug 14, 2017

In developed countries, while most businesses are run by professionals, in India, most listed businesses are managed by promoters themselves. At times, there are situations where the business is doing well and the products are good but the promoters' greed proves to be the Achilles' heel. The promoter may try to extract as much as possible from the company by hook or by crook.

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On the brighter side, the interest of the business is aligned with the interest of promoters when the promoters are at helm.

A management with poor skills or mala fide intentions can bring the complete business down to zero in a matter of days whatever the prospects of the industry. On the contrary, a good management can build a strong business, even in adverse times. For example, in the airlines industry, while Kingfisher completely vanished due to an incompetent management, Indigo prospered.

Following are some companies which destroyed shareholder wealth due to promoters' and managements' incompetence and greed.

Bilcare
Bilcare is one of the largest blister-packaging companies in India. Its problems started when it acquired the plastic-film unit of the Swiss-based Ineos for Rs 607 crore in 2010, which was a much bigger firm than itself at that time. The acquisition turned sour and took the consolidated margins down. In FY13 and FY14, the management was quizzed for dubious accounting practices as well. Its working capital requirement kept growing swiftly. In FY14, the company was declared a wilful defaulter.

Birla Power Solution
A part of Yashovardhan Birla group, Birla Power manufactured generators. The company defaulted on the its debt. It also had significant financial transactions with group companies despite having unrelated businesses. The debt taken for a power project was used to provide money to the group companies for different reasons. Apart from this, huge investments were made in foreign assets with little operations. The promoter of the company, Yash Birla, is famous for his flamboyant lifestyle and partying.

Educomp
Educomp markets equipment for educational training. In its greed for high growth, the company changed its business model from an asset-light one to a leveraged one. In this attempt the company took huge loans and started struggling. The management and promoter were questioned for corporate governance when the CFO's resignation was followed by the company secretary's and compliance officer's resignations in 2012. The very same year, a related company Edusmart witnessed four consecutive resignations.

FTIL
Financial Technologies, now called 63 Moons Technologies, was embroiled in a Rs 5,600 crore scandal. Its subsidiary, National Spot Exchange, a commodity exchange, was involved in a Ponzi scheme, along with its founder Jignesh Shah. The company offered paired contracts which were floated without the permission from the commodities regulator. The company also issued fake warehouse receipts to show the underlying commodities. The company also didn't publish its consolidated results on a quarterly basis.

How to Evaluate a company.....Part 2

The Atlases

We have analysed 7 over-leveraged companies. Find out what are problems and how to avoid them

By Vikas Vardhan | Aug 11, 2017

In Greek mythology, Atlas was a Titan who held the sky. In modern times, perhaps his counterparts are companies which are heavily leveraged. Leveraging means borrowing money to improve profitability by investing it, often in some big-ticket avenues. But leverage is also a double-edged sword. If it fails to produce profits, it can even lead to big losses on account of payment of interest and principal. Adverse market conditions and a reversal in the market cycle can further lead to spiralling problems for over-leveraged companies. Since borrowers have a superior claim on a company's profitability and assets, high leverage can create a deficit for equity owners.

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How can you find over-leveraged companies? A simple measure of the level of debt is the debt-to-equity ratio. In this section, we present to you some companies that have a high debt-to-equity ratio, coupled with a low return on capital employed (ROCE). This means that not only are these companies heavily in debt, they aren't making much on their invested capital. Great companies thrive on the soundness of their business, not leverage. Consider the Sensex. Its constituents, barring three, have never had a debt-to-equity ratio of more than two.

Aban Offshore
Aban Offshore is an offshore drilling-services provider. The company had taken loans of Rs 13,000 crore against a net worth of just Rs 506 crore at the market peak of 2008. A debt-to-equity ratio of more than 16 times made it too fragile a company. It had a dismal return on capital of less than 7 per cent. This was a result of a big expansion plan. The company did generate profits, but they remained stagnant. High interest costs left little for the equity holders.

HCC
Hindustan Construction Company operates in the engineering and construction space. Bullish on the future, the company raised huge debt for its projects. But business cyclicality and delays in its landmark project Lavasa hit its revenues and thus profitability. It has been a loss-making company for a long time. Even before the 2008 crisis, when business sentiment was quite bullish, the company had a poor return on its investment, of less than 10 per cent.

Jaiprakash Associates
Jaiprakash Associates is into cement, construction, power, real estate, fertilisers and many more businesses. In the last financial year, the company had around Rs 70,000 crore debt against net worth of Rs 12,891 crore and a market cap of just `3,617 crore. It has remained highly indebted for a very long time. Even when it was witnessing good times till 2008, it had a debt-to-equity ratio of more than three. Its ROCE was 13 per cent, which is not safe for a cyclical business.

Kingfisher Airlines
Kingfisher had been a loss-making entity since the day it started trading on the stock market, in 2006. Yet the company took on more debt, taking its debt-to-equity ratio to over two. As losses mounted, debt kept on accumulating. The business couldn't be revived and instead of changing the business strategy, the promoters kept waiting for good times, which, in their case, never came.

Reliance Communication
Reliance Communication, an Anil Dhirubhai Ambani group company, is the latest entrant to the loan defaulters’ club. The company has sought time till December 2017 to repay its debt. Its debt-to-equity ratio, which is below 1.5, doesn’t look too bad. But its ROCE, which averaged 4 per cent in the past five years, is too low to service debt for a long time. Total consolidated debt stands at Rs45,000 crore as per the latest filings. The business has taken a hit due to the fierce competition in the telecom sector and due to the coming of Reliance Jio.

Videocon
Videocon was mainly into consumer electronics and then it diversified into highly unrelated businesses like power and oil exploration. The management says it wants to be an oil and energy company in the coming times. To fulfil this ambition, the company has also raised huge debt, which currently stands around Rs50,000 crore. But then the company defaulted on its loan due to a slump in the oil sector. Banks are increasingly classifying Videocon’s debt as non-performing.

Suzlon Energy
Suzlon Energy is in the business of wind-power generation and it also manufactures and installs equipment for that. Suzlon was ahead of its time. Looking at the bright future for renewable energy, the company aggressively acquired many companies overseas. It raised debt in the process. But the acquisitions did not work. Suzlon’s debt has soared year on year, except for the last year. Its return on capital has largely remained negative or insufficient to cover debt repayments.

Avoiding Atlases
In general, avoid companies which are highly leveraged and at the same time are not able to earn more than what they have to spend on their borrowings. To be precise, stay away from companies with debt to equity of more than two. Even if it is lesser, make sure the company earns a high ROCE so that it can service the debt on time. If the ROCE is low, then the company will have to take on more debt to service its past loans.

Another measure to assess the degree of leverage is the interest-coverage ratio. It is calculated by dividing the profit before interest and taxes by interest expenses. The higher the interest-coverage ratio the better it is. Go for companies with ratios of more than two times.

One more effective tool is the Altman Z-Score. A score of less than three indicates likelihood of default and should call for a thorough investigation. To know more about the Altman Z-Score and check the score on any stock, log on to www.valueresearchonline.com and search for that company. See the Essential Checks section on the right side.

How to Evaluate a company.....Part 1

From Valueresearchonline.com......

The dinosaurs

We look at 6 companies which were once dominant in their areas but have now succumbed to changing times

By Vikas Vardhan | Aug 9, 2017

There was a time when dinosaurs ruled the planet. Not only were they the largest organisms of their times, they were also most widespread. Yet they are extinct today. No one could have overpowered them, yet they vanished. We use the term 'Dinosaurs' for companies which were once dominant in their areas but have now succumbed to changing times.

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Most of the companies in this category were the first movers in their industries and had monopolistic positions thanks to the licence raj, but they were also arrogant enough to overlook the winds of change. They did not innovate; they did not improve their products; they did not understand the changing dynamics of their markets. They just sat down and watched their market share getting usurped by new, more innovative players. We assess six Dinosaurs to see what led to their collapse.

Aptech
Founded in 1986, Aptech is into computer education, which was a very specialised course at that time. But soon many colleges and schools started to offer computer education. Since people prefer a degree to a diploma, which Aptech offered, the company lost its appeal. Moreover, it lagged behind in terms of quality of curriculum. It missed the opportunity to become a niche player in computer education and became a generalist instead.

Hindustan Motors
Hindustan Motors, a C K Birla group company, started its operation in 1958. Its landmark car was the Ambassador. The Ambassador thrived in India for over four decades and became a status symbol. Since the company was shielded from the entry of foreign carmakers, thanks to a closed Indian market, it garnered about 70 per cent market share. But once Maruti entered the market, HM started to feel the heat. It failed to keep the Ambassador brand alive. In 2014, when the manufacturing of the Ambassador finally stopped, it had sold only 2,200 units.

HMT
Hindustan Machine Tools (HMT) was set up in the 1970s in collaboration with Citizen, a Japanese watch maker. HMT developed a very good technical base and produced good-quality products. Before the 1990s, it had a massive 90 per cent market share. But what it lacked was the style and variety in its products. Then came Titan from the Tata's stable. It took the market by storm. It offered what HMT was lacking, viz., variety of designs. HMT did not realise that watches were no more meant for just time keeping but had become an ornament.

Kinetic Motor Company
Kinetic Motors was a joint venture between Kinetic Engineering and Honda Motor Company of Japan. In 1988, Honda exited the joint venture. After Honda’s exit, things started getting worse. The company lost its appeal and failed to innovate. Once known for the Luna, it sold off its plants to Mahindra and got merged with the parent Kinetic Engineering. A few years later, the company ceased to exist. It had a market cap of just Rs20 crore when it last traded.

MTNL
MTNL, a public-sector enterprise, failed to change itself with time. It failed to adequately invest in its infrastructure to enhance its coverage and service quality, despite having a huge cash pile of around Rs4,892 crore in 2009 and being debt-free.  MTNL, which now has negative net worth, until 2010 used to generate huge free cash flows. Operating in only two major metro cities, MTNL had 28,877 employees as on December 31, 2016, while Airtel, which has a pan-India presence, operates with 22,815 employees.

Premier
Premier made the old iconic car Fiat 1100D or the Premier Padmini. This model was first launched in 1973 and remained the same till 1998, without many changes. Before Maruti 800, it was the favourite car of the upper middle class. After its demise, the company now manufactures a lesser known car RiO, which has failed to take off. The company also manufactures CNC (computer numerical control) machines but this division has frequently faced quality issues and customer complaints.

How to avoid dinosaurs
It is easy to look at the past and point at the companies that failed. When it comes to the present, it is difficult to figure out what company is on the road to extinction. One way you can spot future failures is by finding companies which are not changing with time.

Most of the examples discussed above did not introduce a new product or make improvements to their existing product line for decades. Their volume sales declined consistently but they did not put in effort to build up new capabilities. The balance sheet is a good indicator of future failures. Despite having resources, if a company doesn’t incur capital expenditure for long periods, that could be a sign of trouble.

Another cue is a lack of passion in the management. How do you spot a management that is passionate and has hunger for growth? Consider Bajaj Auto and Eicher Motors, the manufacturer of the Royal Enfield. Royal Enfield has kept its brand lively by introducing new variants and new features. It has held onto its niche of high-power bikes and originality of concept. Similarly, Bajaj has focused on constant changes to its bestselling model Pulsar. It kept innovating it, even though it was already doing well, and never grew complacent.

Also look for businesses that are coming up with innovative ideas and those that have remained relevant over time. Titan is one such example. It started with manufacturing watches in 1980s and took away the market share of HMT. It also sensed that the watch segment will have limited growth by the 1990s and, therefore, it ventured into the jewellery market through its Tanishq brand. It did not stop there. It captured the youth market by introducing its new brand Fastrack in the 2000s. Guess what, it is now testing a new market: that of sarees.

Satyanarayan Pooja in My house....and stock market is discussed

Our friends and relatives had come to our house to attend the pooja and take gods blessing...God bless them all and also god bless all my readers....
Anyways interesting thing i am noticing that people have started taking in bits about stock market and the companies one is invested and they should invest it...the talk was casual and brief but the interesting thing is people have started talking about stock market...

My mom keeps satyanarayan pooja every year and it was the first year after 2008 have seen people discussing stock market...

Pharma Sector in Bear Grip....

The pharma sector is in complete Bear trend and prices are plummeting as there is no tomorrow... The bear trend started some where in the year 2015 and is still going on...it is a long term bear trend and probably time wise will last for other 2 years atleast till the time people get tired of selling and show no interest at all of purchasing or even of selling...total disinterest towards the pharma sector...Psychologically the retail investor should feel frustrated to even talk bout the sector...than it is the time to even increase exposure to the pharma sector even if you are invested... today the current situation is such that people are selling a if there is going to be end of selling medicines... Such negative talks of sector destruction are always spoken in the times of Pessimism and In Bear Trend... Companies will close down....medicines will stop selling...new technology will replace the intake of medicines...BLA BLA BLA....and the stories will go on and on... everyone will talk negative which is happening in the pharma sector and i can literally see in happening in the form of selling in the secondary markets...

Prices of most of the top pharma companies in india have plummeted more than 2.60 times from their Life Time tops...I dont say that still lower prices are not possible in these pharma companies in the coming months or years but the bottom is nearing and the Investors have become FEARFUL of the pharma sector in general....

But today investing in pharma sector is like standing below the falling knife and it will require great courage determination to purchase stocks in the pharma sector...and then to apply discipline for the next at least 5 to 8 years and stay invested for the long term...

Why Telecom Sector...is lagging

Telecom sector from 2008 is still bog down and lagging behind the secondary market bull trend for now...there are many reasons to it....
Firstly....Corruption in issuing licenses...
Secondly...The complete telecom sector is highly leverage...high debts...
Thirdly...Revenues and Profitability going down because of competition and lower of rates by companies to attract customers...
Fourtly...consolidation of the complete telecom sector by ways of Mergers and acquisitions...

Last point i like to add here is that still bad days are not over for telecom sectors as long as data usage of retail customers goes up and so does the revenues of the Telecom companies respectively....

SBI is consolidating at current levels....

SBI is strongly consolidating between 315 and 299...from the last 7 days and my view is that it will not go below 299 on closing basis....and most probably in next 4 days before coming Wednesday... i see SBI resuming its upwards rally....
The above expressed views are my personnel... based on technical analysis and i reserve my rights to go wrong...Also note it is not a recommendation to Buy or Sell....please consult your financial advisor before purchasing or selling any Stocks....Anyways Prediction is a game of chance and probabilities are always 50/50....

NEW IPOs...

From the last 6 months the frequency of NEW IPOs have increased drastically...also on the listing day the speculation is so high that some of the issues are listed with premiums of 20% minimum....also now the NEW IPOs are getting subscribe by 10....40....some even 100 times....

The party has started and we have entered the Optimistic phase....the flow of money in the stock market by retail investors through mutual funds is very high.....so correction timewise will be short lived and also price wise corrections levels from top will be very less....

the current rally clearly shows that nifty will travel to 10350 to 10450 levels for now in the coming 20 days....

Read Sensex and Nifty Target By a famous analyst who comes on CNBC TV18

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/trends/expert-columns-2/tulsian-tells-these-factors-will-see-nifty-hit-20k-sensex-65k-in-less-than-5-years-2351399.html

Tulsian tells: These factors will see Nifty hit 20K, Sensex 65K in less than 5 years....

SP Tulsian Aug 07, 2017 10:31 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

The Nifty’s move to 10,000 in the last week of July, has boosted market sentiment. As with any big move, this one too was quite swift and unexpected, with the index gaining 500 points in one month alone.

“Is this rally sustainable?” is the question uppermost in the minds of media, stock market experts, brokers and investors. I have been positive on the market since January (even when most experts were cautious or negative) and predicted the Nifty hitting within 10,000 sometime during the year. I remain positive, not just for remainder of 2017, but for the next four-and-a-half years, during which the Nifty can go all the way up to 20,000, and the Sensex to 65,000.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.........Aug 05, 2017 04:48 PM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

In his recent interview with CNBC-TV18 earlier in the year, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said that investors should not get worried about one day of correction as "we are far away from the peak". Nifty is more likely to double in the next 4-5 years, he said.
The bull market will only eclipse when three factors are present — valuation froth, commitment froth and when there is bad news, he explained. Elaborating on them, Jhunjhunwala said just by valuation froth, bull markets will not end. By commitment froth, it means that there is a lot of leverage buying, which is still not there. The third factor is bad news and when investors sell on the bad news, there is no buyer.

NIfTY LEVels....and COrrEction.....

My opinion and view are my personal and I hope and predict that Nifty will start it's CorrEcTion BEfOre 23 auGUst....mY lEVEls foR nifty is betWEen 10350.....10400 and tHEn prOBAbly corRECtion wiLL STArt.....
CorrEcTion will be as what happens in a BULL market and thereafter in few months again the UPTred  rally will STart

When will the nifty correct even after crossing 10000...

Isnt it difficult to predict...yes it is...because prediction is a fools game....anyways from the last few days am taking reports from my friends who are working in broking firms all provided me with the information that from the last few day retail investors who are their clients...selling their complete delivery stock holding in cash market....why because 10000 nifty levels is very high and market should correct from here is the perception of retail investors today....no doubt we are at 25PE as per todays data....But if all retail investors are selling then markets cannot correct and also the buying and euphoria what i experienced in Feb 2015 is complete not there....in Feb 2015 people were only buying as if there was no tomorrow...and these time it is completely missing today...so if they are selling then the question of the market correcting from here say by 12% doesnt arise for sure...So Psychologically i feel that the steam of the market is still left and all these people are going to be trapped finally is what i feel...The last gush of euphoria of the current rally is still left as per my views....Anyways i reserved to be holding my independent views about the markets and in no way am i giving recommendation to anyone to hold on to my views....

Note: but to what levels the nifty will travel from here is very difficult to say...also coming 3/4 days nifty might see a small correction...and thereafter will again resume its uptrend...

But i can be proved otherwise also....

Building Contractor started Investing in Mutual Funds

15 days back our office building repairing contractor came in our office and discussing about a parcel of land he wanted to buy in some remote area of western Maharashtra....suddenly the topic changed to stock market and he told us from the last 4 to 5 months he is investing like 80000/- per month in different schemes of equity mutual funds...

Also just few days back myself and my cousins had gone to Mahabaleshwar and to my surprise almost nearly after 8 months the topic of discussion started with stock market....the talk lasted for almost like half an hour which was very surprising for me...

The interest in the stock market is coming slowly slowly....