recently was listening to few experts and came to know for any economy to come out of deflation... recession...stagflation...new money has to be printed and pumped in to the economy.. otherwise how can a economy come out of recession...depression...so all these false propoganda by this as holes..so called experts is just to divert our mind from the actual facts and realities that in near future the economy will go up because of new flush of money in the system...suppose if you are admitted in a hospital to get operated...the first thing is required is money to be deposited for the operation...no money no operation...now suppose i am your friend and have the power to print money and print few lakhs of rupees and give it to you for your operation...so is it good for you to accept the money and get operated and survive...definitely..you will accept the money and want to survive..so is what is been done by the central banks round the world...till they print and till the dtae hyper inflation is created between that time you make your money in all the assests by being invested and at the signs of first trouble get out with all the money you made...which is what Vijay Mallaya did...get out of india at the sign of first trouble...now whatevet happens thereafter good or bad is a different story..so after making money you get out of your investments and invest your money is Bond which are safe...but before that let this liquidity infusion by all the central banks of the world be played out by sky rocketing stock market highs....bubble in commercial properties....etc...
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Bond prices soar: New 10-year yields may fall below 7%
THE G-SEC IN 2008 WAS 9.15...THEN WENT DOWN TO 5.25
THE G-SEC IN 2013 WAS 9.10...RIGHT NOW IT IS @ 7.10
MY PREDICTION IS BY 2018 THIS G-SEC HAS TO GO BELOW 6%..AND THEREAFTER THE ECONOMY ON THE GROUND LEVEL WILL START ZOOMING....MONEY...MONEY...BUT BEFORE THAT STOCK MARKETS WILL BE CLIMBING NEW DIZZY LIFETIME HIGHS....
Mumbai: India's benchmark bond yields are set to breach the 7 per cent mark for the first time since 2009 when the government sells 10-year bonds which would become the new benchmark for traders.
With the demand for Indian fixed income papers soaring due to high yield differential with the developed world, or even with other developing markets, prices could rise further, said traders. Bond prices and yields move in opposite direction
"The new benchmark paper is expected to yield at sub-7 per cent level," said Piyush Wadhwa, head of trading, financial markets group, at IDFC Bank."Traders will be interested to buy those while investors will be more inclined to the existing benchmark that offers higher rates."
The government is scheduled to sell Rs 8,000 crore worth of bonds that would mature in 2026 as part of its sale of Rs 14,000 crore of bond sale slated for September 2. In Indian bond market, government bonds that mature in 10-years are the most traded. Although many bonds would be maturing, in cluding the one that is currently traded as benchmark, traders take a fancy for the one that is newly sold for reasons that few are able to explain. The latest 10-year bonds are termed Rs on the run' and those which have been benchmark but would fade away once the new one comes in, are known as Rs off the run.' Although both sets of bonds would ma ture in the same year, they tend to trade at different yields.
The benchmark yield on Tuesday fell two basis points to close 7.11 per cent, six basis points lower than the level seen last week when some jittery inves tors rushed to exit position after the government appointed Urjit Patel as the new RBI governor.
"Long-term in vestors are expected to build up G-sec positions as the net supply in the second half of the year may be constrained due to purchases by the RBI from open market," said Badrish Kulhalli, fund manager, fixed income, at HDFC Life Insurance. "As per current expectations, the new 10 year bond is likely to set a coupon be tween 6.95 and 7 per cent."
THE G-SEC IN 2013 WAS 9.10...RIGHT NOW IT IS @ 7.10
MY PREDICTION IS BY 2018 THIS G-SEC HAS TO GO BELOW 6%..AND THEREAFTER THE ECONOMY ON THE GROUND LEVEL WILL START ZOOMING....MONEY...MONEY...BUT BEFORE THAT STOCK MARKETS WILL BE CLIMBING NEW DIZZY LIFETIME HIGHS....
Mumbai: India's benchmark bond yields are set to breach the 7 per cent mark for the first time since 2009 when the government sells 10-year bonds which would become the new benchmark for traders.
With the demand for Indian fixed income papers soaring due to high yield differential with the developed world, or even with other developing markets, prices could rise further, said traders. Bond prices and yields move in opposite direction
"The new benchmark paper is expected to yield at sub-7 per cent level," said Piyush Wadhwa, head of trading, financial markets group, at IDFC Bank."Traders will be interested to buy those while investors will be more inclined to the existing benchmark that offers higher rates."
The government is scheduled to sell Rs 8,000 crore worth of bonds that would mature in 2026 as part of its sale of Rs 14,000 crore of bond sale slated for September 2. In Indian bond market, government bonds that mature in 10-years are the most traded. Although many bonds would be maturing, in cluding the one that is currently traded as benchmark, traders take a fancy for the one that is newly sold for reasons that few are able to explain. The latest 10-year bonds are termed Rs on the run' and those which have been benchmark but would fade away once the new one comes in, are known as Rs off the run.' Although both sets of bonds would ma ture in the same year, they tend to trade at different yields.
The benchmark yield on Tuesday fell two basis points to close 7.11 per cent, six basis points lower than the level seen last week when some jittery inves tors rushed to exit position after the government appointed Urjit Patel as the new RBI governor.
"Long-term in vestors are expected to build up G-sec positions as the net supply in the second half of the year may be constrained due to purchases by the RBI from open market," said Badrish Kulhalli, fund manager, fixed income, at HDFC Life Insurance. "As per current expectations, the new 10 year bond is likely to set a coupon be tween 6.95 and 7 per cent."
Thursday, August 18, 2016
NPAs nearly doubled to 8.5% in Q1: Report
The banking system's gross NPAs shot up to 8.5 percent by the June quarter, as against 4.6 percent a year ago. The spike was largely due to the doubling of NPAs at public sector banks to 10.4 percent compared to 5.3 percent in June 2015.
The banking sector's non-performing assets (NPA) almost doubled to 8.5 percent in the first quarter of this fiscal, driven by surging bad assets of state-run lenders, Care Ratings said. The banking system's gross NPAs shot up to 8.5 percent by the June quarter, as against 4.6 percent a year ago. The spike was largely due to the doubling of NPAs at public sector banks to 10.4 percent compared to 5.3 percent in June 2015. However, the rating agency did not quantify the bad loans in absolute terms. Private sector lenders witnessed their NPA ratio increasing to 3 percent from 2.1 percent a year ago, it added. "The state-run banks have been under pressure to identify and provide for their NPAs, which could last for another one to two quarters," the agency said, adding the high NPAs and consequent provisioning is an "area of concern" that will impact their profitability going forward. Many state-run lenders reported net losses in the June quarter, with market leader SBI turning in a 32 percent drop in net income, while private sector banks' net collectively fell just 2.6 percent. The agency said given the government's plan to raise money by offloading stakes in banks, profit is an important issue. "High NPAs and low profitability would not augur well if the government is working towards lowering its stake in these banks to 51 percent," it said. However, it termed the recognition of NPAs as a positive step in the long term as higher provisioning makes the state-run lenders better prepared to face the market.
The banking sector's non-performing assets (NPA) almost doubled to 8.5 percent in the first quarter of this fiscal, driven by surging bad assets of state-run lenders, Care Ratings said. The banking system's gross NPAs shot up to 8.5 percent by the June quarter, as against 4.6 percent a year ago. The spike was largely due to the doubling of NPAs at public sector banks to 10.4 percent compared to 5.3 percent in June 2015. However, the rating agency did not quantify the bad loans in absolute terms. Private sector lenders witnessed their NPA ratio increasing to 3 percent from 2.1 percent a year ago, it added. "The state-run banks have been under pressure to identify and provide for their NPAs, which could last for another one to two quarters," the agency said, adding the high NPAs and consequent provisioning is an "area of concern" that will impact their profitability going forward. Many state-run lenders reported net losses in the June quarter, with market leader SBI turning in a 32 percent drop in net income, while private sector banks' net collectively fell just 2.6 percent. The agency said given the government's plan to raise money by offloading stakes in banks, profit is an important issue. "High NPAs and low profitability would not augur well if the government is working towards lowering its stake in these banks to 51 percent," it said. However, it termed the recognition of NPAs as a positive step in the long term as higher provisioning makes the state-run lenders better prepared to face the market.
A complete insight why stock market will go up....
I completely believe 100% what this person says...but still our retail investors lack total confidence in investment in the Indian stock market.... Please listen to the person very carefully...Also the best thing what he told is invest in companies which will earn for you DAY AND NIGHT..24 HOURS A DAY..IN WINTER, SUMMER AND IN RAINS..The idea here is to invest in sound monopolistic market leader pricing power companies..
https://youtu.be/74QnI2N6kc8
https://youtu.be/74QnI2N6kc8
Monday, August 15, 2016
Purchased bank of india
Before I start... purchased 400 shares of bank of India at 112/- totally against my investing style and my investment discipline....so please note I do not recommend to buy as per fundamental view... somehow the power of reflexive brain was so powerful that it got the better of my reflective brain and made me take the decision to buy the bank of India shares intitutively... Also the technical analysis always exerts a greed in me and upteem number of times have made me take foolish steps without thinking twice..it immediately ignites my reflexive brain and I compulsorily i am forced to take action...so this purchase was based more on the technical analysis basis and to some extend on psychology.... Today no one wants to invest in PSUs banks and they are definitely right about their decision of avoiding investing in the PSUs banks...but note I feel that bank of India has bottomed out technically and it is the right price to buy today...I mean the risk reward ratio today for bank of India is very good for long term investing...also they have been very sincere in disclosing their Npas and taking losses on their results...cleaning up their books which is a good sign for the bank.... Note anyways I not recommending anyone to buy bank of India..... Please invest as per what your financial advisor tells you...happy Independence Day.....
Bank Npas are nearing its bottom
Mostly the psu banks Npas are nearing its top..I mean all the bad news about npas are being discounted and factored...today the average Gnpas of psu banks are around 11% to 12% and the Npas are around 9%...but if you have noticed the RBI is hell bound to clear the banking system of NPAs... The Npas are topping out can be clear visible by many factors.. Firstly almost all the PSUs banks have shown Huge quarterly losses and a very high provisions for npas.. This type of bad quarterly results will be continued for the next few quarters... But most important thing is that structural changes have been happening in the banking sector...thanks to dr Rajan...believe it or not one year of more pain in the PSUs banks and the scenario will change drastically for the banking sector...also Rajan in one of his interview said that the PSUs banking sector will change completely after two years time...secondly the Indian government is infusing money in the PSUs banks to revive them...also the government is infusing money in the PSUs banks on performance basis...ie reduce the npas and get your act together and take the money to revive the bank...excellent...giving money to bank is on performance basis...thirdly the interest from these levels will go southwards as the clues are easily visible from g sec 10years interest rates which will revive all the businesses and give a new life to the corporates who are heavily burden...off course all this will take time but the course is set for the revival of the banking sector...
Friday, August 12, 2016
For sure we are between Skepticism and Optimism
little by little the fear uncertainty and lack of confidence are diminishing and a new level from skepticism to optimism is being transpired...please excuse my english vocabulary..Ha..Ha..note the data about the incresed in the amount of money flowing in the mutual fund schemes have alomost gone up to 3500 crores per month..whcih few years ago was just 1500 crores per month..look at the transformation in the thought process and the perception and the view retail investors are holding today..they are pumping money in to the stock market like anything..also the mutual fund accounts have gone up substantially in these last few months...HEY GUYS GET READY FOR THE SHOW..look at the number of IPOs hitting the secondary markets..God they are getting over subscribe and getting listed at least 10% to 20% above their listing prices...Cannot you understand the herd has started moving...but still green shot indications...initial stages of left out feeling...but please note if you are investing today please invest through the mutual fund route only...otherwise you will be left with no bank balance in later stages...
g sec 10 years yield...
India 10-Year Bond Yield....7.103
finally whatever it might be and whoever talks nonsense but what i have come to know is that to very great extent the economy is run by the MONEY SUPPLY which is infused in the economy by the reserve bank of india and by the changes in the Interest Rates as per the Inflation Levels...And always remember psychology plays a very important role in the economics..
what data i have known from hindsight is that the 10 years g sec rates generally drop below 6% and range between 5.5% to 6 % ans sooner thereafter the economy starts rolling..and it is also reflected in the stock market as they also keep on making new highs..stock market starts rolling because people start rolling and invest more money in the stock market..more money in the stock market the more the higher levels of nifty and new life time highs...
other observation i can make but note all these observations are pure guess work and i can go miserably wrong, is that the 10 year g sec will go below 6% by 2018 and not before that..and the economy will start rolling from 2018...businesses will do good and so the earnings of companies will go up...and so the stock market PE...note earnings of all the companies might not go up..but majority will do go up..
finally created a new blog....
right now my last 5 years blog seems like they are lost...anyways that will not ditter me to write further..so i again invite all my friends to ready my blogs...
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