Friday, October 6, 2017

Worst correction in Nifty......

Worst ever correction will happen and is happening in Nifty time wise and price wise...it will be very slow and soft....the correction in nifty will go on till December 2017 to February 2018....and am damn sure that correction is still not over and the nifty for once will touch 9200....am not predicting and there is no play of overconfidence in my above statement but Nifty has been going upwards  and touched 10150 without any interruption from the last 9 months....and nifty has recently started correction from July 2017 onwards....and the correction will last between coming December to February 2018....so will wait patiently till the end of these correction and thereafter will start purchasing....Patience and disciplined is what i am going to practice for my future course of long term investing....will wait patiently till my pre determined correction prices arrives as per my calculations.....

Thursday, October 5, 2017

Finally got the break

today was travelling in the first class section of mumbai local train...guess what...yes you will be shocked...two people were talking continously about stocks and their suadas...almost like non stop for one hour their topic of discussion was stock market and the stocks they traded and how much profit they did in the last two month from august 2017 to october 2017... yes these is the beginning of the bull market for sure and it is more than confirmed that we are in the bull market...also previously people were scared and shy to talk about the stock market because of people negative reaction...now that fear is lost and people are becoming bold to discuss about the stock market....i had waited for almost 7 years to hear people talking about stock market in the local train...and finally i got the opportunity to see two people talking and i could hear them clearly also and my wish was fulfilled....

Saturday, September 16, 2017

It's raining IPOs....

Yes...i am right...these last two months atleast 15 to 20 new IPOs must have hit the primary market...the biggest was of sbi life of approx. 7000 crore rupees and it got 2 times oversubscribe...and issues are getting oversubscribe...there is a bid appetite for the new IPO issues...

Friday, September 15, 2017

Long Term Investing is very very Boring....and one needs Lots of Patience....

Long Term Investing is very very Boring....but it is where wealth is made and generated...

It s exciting when assets go up or down by a lot. Generally, they don t. It s boring to watch things that don t do much in a hurry. And it s boring to wait for the market to validate your assessment of fundamental value. It s boring to sift through financial statements or filings and then discover a company is fairly valued. It s boring to wait for a better opportunity to purchase an asset. It s boring to own a company that has excellent prospects but that no-one has ever heard of (or is likely to ever hear of). It s boring to remain invested in a company that is quietly compounding its value (and whose business you understand well), when new opportunities appear more alluring. It s boring to invest the same way you always have, when the world around is full of sophisticated investors raising a lot of money for complex strategies.Investing is a continuous process too. It isn t supposed to be interesting…If you go to the stock market because you want excitement, then sooner or later you will lose your shirt... May God bless all with abundance of wealth and health...
Happy long term Boring Investing Style...

Thursday, August 31, 2017

War....Battle.... between 2 Types of Investors....

Put your hand on your heart and ask yourself till date how much did you earn in stock market and have deposited that profit in your Bank Account and actually used that profit on you and your family or for some other reason best known to you.... hahaha.... anyways jokes apart....

There are 2 Types of Investors...
1.... Wise and Smart Investors
2.... Fool Investors

The Ratio is very dismal betWEen These two types of Investors....

Wise and Smart Investors percentage in Stock Market is only 2%...
Fool Investors percentage in Stock Market is almost 98%...

Well you can argue about the figures but the main point I like to highlight that we all fall in the category of 98% and we are the ones who lose money to the rest 2% of the people who are more wise and Smarter than us.... But because of our over confidence bias we will not accept the fact that we fall in the 98% category of the investors...and believe that we can definitely and easily beat the other 2% of the Investors.... The Battle is between the 98% and the 2% of the Investors.... Because ultimately and Finally Because of our stupid thinking and Strong Emotions our Wealth goes to these 2% Smart Investors....
So be sensible when Investing your hard earned money and try to be on the 2% category of Investors even though your returns are little less because atleast your principal Money is Protected....

I might be wrong about my perspective and understanding so please take the advice of your financial planner....

Monday, August 28, 2017

NTPC...11th Company to hit my Formula Purchasing price...

NTPC...11th Company to hit my Formula Purchasing price...Today only removed My Formula Purchasing Price for NTPC and saw it already had hit my prices in 2016/17....

Year                         First Price                      Second Price                           Actual Price

2016/17                     150                                   135                                125 (8th August 2016)
2017/18                     150                                   133                                153 (2nd June 2017)

There must be many companies touching or going below My Formula Purchasing Price...But have limited my search to very few companies...NTPC was added in my Portfolio just 20 days back and today only i did my Formula Purchasing Price analysis for NTPC....and got the above results...

In 2008...Ntpc made a high of 280 and from there onwards it has been falling continuously till April 2016....and from there onwards today it is at 174....It made a lifetime low of 107....in 2015/16

But note NTPC at Current price is a very long term investment option....Please consult your financial advisor for stock selection and for that purpose for buying recommendation....

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Coal India....Contrarian Buy....

today have purchased Coal India 241...as a contrarian buy...Totally neglected stock...out of the list of other investors....Zero momentum...Coal india hated by almost everybody...lots of negativity spoken about the company...so makes a good buying bet...Zero Speculation...Almost 47% down from lifetime highs... of @447... From Fancy stock in the year 2015 today it is dying a slow death...It might go down to 175/- also but will still buy more in the downfall for long term investing of say atleast 8 to 10 years....

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Sun Pharma Trend Reversal...

I can see a strong trend reversal towards the upside for Sun Pharma from these price levels @468...in the coming few weeks....

Friday, August 18, 2017

ICICI bank....TATA Global Beverages....Correction prediction

Please note the below stock prices are no recommendation and i do not in any circumstances am advising to buy...sell or trade in the below mentioned stocks...

The price target of the below stocks might be achieved when Nifty touches around 8800....9000 in the coming few months from today....

ICICI Bank should correct atleast to the levels of 263....
TATA Beverages should correct to the levels of 175...
SBI Bank should correct to the levels of 252...

Nifty COrrEctIon hAS STArted....

Read 13th July Message on Nifty in my previous blog...So finally the correction has started as per my calculation and gut feeling.... but guessing game is correct only with probability of 50/50... The levels i am looking forward for nifty to make a bottom in these correction is 8800 in the coming few months...also what i think that nifty will correct slowly and by December 2017 or by January 2018 the correction should get over and by February 2018 the Bull trend should resume again its northwards journey...

Please dont take the above article as a recommendation and consult your Financial Advisor before Purcashing or Selling any assets...

Monday, August 14, 2017

How to Evaluate a company.....Part 3

The rogues

We have analysed 7 companies which destroyed shareholder wealth due to promoters' and managements' incompetence and greed. Read what we have learnt

The rogues
In developed countries, while most businesses are run by professionals, in India, most listed businesses are managed by promoters themselves. At times, there are situations where the business is doing well and the products are good but the promoters' greed proves to be the Achilles' heel. The promoter may try to extract as much as possible from the company by hook or by crook.
On the brighter side, the interest of the business is aligned with the interest of promoters when the promoters are at helm.
A management with poor skills or mala fide intentions can bring the complete business down to zero in a matter of days whatever the prospects of the industry. On the contrary, a good management can build a strong business, even in adverse times. For example, in the airlines industry, while Kingfisher completely vanished due to an incompetent management, Indigo prospered.
Following are some companies which destroyed shareholder wealth due to promoters' and managements' incompetence and greed.
Bilcare
Bilcare is one of the largest blister-packaging companies in India. Its problems started when it acquired the plastic-film unit of the Swiss-based Ineos for Rs 607 crore in 2010, which was a much bigger firm than itself at that time. The acquisition turned sour and took the consolidated margins down. In FY13 and FY14, the management was quizzed for dubious accounting practices as well. Its working capital requirement kept growing swiftly. In FY14, the company was declared a wilful defaulter.
The rogues
Birla Power Solution
A part of Yashovardhan Birla group, Birla Power manufactured generators. The company defaulted on the its debt. It also had significant financial transactions with group companies despite having unrelated businesses. The debt taken for a power project was used to provide money to the group companies for different reasons. Apart from this, huge investments were made in foreign assets with little operations. The promoter of the company, Yash Birla, is famous for his flamboyant lifestyle and partying.
The rogues
Educomp
Educomp markets equipment for educational training. In its greed for high growth, the company changed its business model from an asset-light one to a leveraged one. In this attempt the company took huge loans and started struggling. The management and promoter were questioned for corporate governance when the CFO's resignation was followed by the company secretary's and compliance officer's resignations in 2012. The very same year, a related company Edusmart witnessed four consecutive resignations.
The rogues
FTIL
Financial Technologies, now called 63 Moons Technologies, was embroiled in a Rs 5,600 crore scandal. Its subsidiary, National Spot Exchange, a commodity exchange, was involved in a Ponzi scheme, along with its founder Jignesh Shah. The company offered paired contracts which were floated without the permission from the commodities regulator. The company also issued fake warehouse receipts to show the underlying commodities. The company also didn't publish its consolidated results on a quarterly basis.
The rogues

How to Evaluate a company.....Part 2

The Atlases

We have analysed 7 over-leveraged companies. Find out what are problems and how to avoid them



The Atlases
In Greek mythology, Atlas was a Titan who held the sky. In modern times, perhaps his counterparts are companies which are heavily leveraged. Leveraging means borrowing money to improve profitability by investing it, often in some big-ticket avenues. But leverage is also a double-edged sword. If it fails to produce profits, it can even lead to big losses on account of payment of interest and principal. Adverse market conditions and a reversal in the market cycle can further lead to spiralling problems for over-leveraged companies. Since borrowers have a superior claim on a company's profitability and assets, high leverage can create a deficit for equity owners.
How can you find over-leveraged companies? A simple measure of the level of debt is the debt-to-equity ratio. In this section, we present to you some companies that have a high debt-to-equity ratio, coupled with a low return on capital employed (ROCE). This means that not only are these companies heavily in debt, they aren't making much on their invested capital. Great companies thrive on the soundness of their business, not leverage. Consider the Sensex. Its constituents, barring three, have never had a debt-to-equity ratio of more than two.
Aban Offshore
Aban Offshore is an offshore drilling-services provider. The company had taken loans of Rs 13,000 crore against a net worth of just Rs 506 crore at the market peak of 2008. A debt-to-equity ratio of more than 16 times made it too fragile a company. It had a dismal return on capital of less than 7 per cent. This was a result of a big expansion plan. The company did generate profits, but they remained stagnant. High interest costs left little for the equity holders.
The Atlases
HCC
Hindustan Construction Company operates in the engineering and construction space. Bullish on the future, the company raised huge debt for its projects. But business cyclicality and delays in its landmark project Lavasa hit its revenues and thus profitability. It has been a loss-making company for a long time. Even before the 2008 crisis, when business sentiment was quite bullish, the company had a poor return on its investment, of less than 10 per cent.
The Atlases
Jaiprakash Associates
Jaiprakash Associates is into cement, construction, power, real estate, fertilisers and many more businesses. In the last financial year, the company had around Rs 70,000 crore debt against net worth of Rs 12,891 crore and a market cap of just `3,617 crore. It has remained highly indebted for a very long time. Even when it was witnessing good times till 2008, it had a debt-to-equity ratio of more than three. Its ROCE was 13 per cent, which is not safe for a cyclical business.
The Atlases
Kingfisher Airlines
Kingfisher had been a loss-making entity since the day it started trading on the stock market, in 2006. Yet the company took on more debt, taking its debt-to-equity ratio to over two. As losses mounted, debt kept on accumulating. The business couldn't be revived and instead of changing the business strategy, the promoters kept waiting for good times, which, in their case, never came.
The Atlases
Reliance Communication
Reliance Communication, an Anil Dhirubhai Ambani group company, is the latest entrant to the loan defaulters’ club. The company has sought time till December 2017 to repay its debt. Its debt-to-equity ratio, which is below 1.5, doesn’t look too bad. But its ROCE, which averaged 4 per cent in the past five years, is too low to service debt for a long time. Total consolidated debt stands at Rs45,000 crore as per the latest filings. The business has taken a hit due to the fierce competition in the telecom sector and due to the coming of Reliance Jio.
The Atlases
Videocon
Videocon was mainly into consumer electronics and then it diversified into highly unrelated businesses like power and oil exploration. The management says it wants to be an oil and energy company in the coming times. To fulfil this ambition, the company has also raised huge debt, which currently stands around Rs50,000 crore. But then the company defaulted on its loan due to a slump in the oil sector. Banks are increasingly classifying Videocon’s debt as non-performing.
The Atlases
Suzlon Energy
Suzlon Energy is in the business of wind-power generation and it also manufactures and installs equipment for that. Suzlon was ahead of its time. Looking at the bright future for renewable energy, the company aggressively acquired many companies overseas. It raised debt in the process. But the acquisitions did not work. Suzlon’s debt has soared year on year, except for the last year. Its return on capital has largely remained negative or insufficient to cover debt repayments.
The Atlases
Avoiding Atlases
In general, avoid companies which are highly leveraged and at the same time are not able to earn more than what they have to spend on their borrowings. To be precise, stay away from companies with debt to equity of more than two. Even if it is lesser, make sure the company earns a high ROCE so that it can service the debt on time. If the ROCE is low, then the company will have to take on more debt to service its past loans.
Another measure to assess the degree of leverage is the interest-coverage ratio. It is calculated by dividing the profit before interest and taxes by interest expenses. The higher the interest-coverage ratio the better it is. Go for companies with ratios of more than two times.
One more effective tool is the Altman Z-Score. A score of less than three indicates likelihood of default and should call for a thorough investigation. To know more about the Altman Z-Score and check the score on any stock, log on to www.valueresearchonline.com and search for that company. See the Essential Checks section on the right side.

How to Evaluate a company.....Part 1

From Valueresearchonline.com......

The dinosaurs

We look at 6 companies which were once dominant in their areas but have now succumbed to changing times

The dinosaurs
There was a time when dinosaurs ruled the planet. Not only were they the largest organisms of their times, they were also most widespread. Yet they are extinct today. No one could have overpowered them, yet they vanished. We use the term 'Dinosaurs' for companies which were once dominant in their areas but have now succumbed to changing times.
Most of the companies in this category were the first movers in their industries and had monopolistic positions thanks to the licence raj, but they were also arrogant enough to overlook the winds of change. They did not innovate; they did not improve their products; they did not understand the changing dynamics of their markets. They just sat down and watched their market share getting usurped by new, more innovative players. We assess six Dinosaurs to see what led to their collapse.
Aptech
Founded in 1986, Aptech is into computer education, which was a very specialised course at that time. But soon many colleges and schools started to offer computer education. Since people prefer a degree to a diploma, which Aptech offered, the company lost its appeal. Moreover, it lagged behind in terms of quality of curriculum. It missed the opportunity to become a niche player in computer education and became a generalist instead.
The dinosaurs
Hindustan Motors
Hindustan Motors, a C K Birla group company, started its operation in 1958. Its landmark car was the Ambassador. The Ambassador thrived in India for over four decades and became a status symbol. Since the company was shielded from the entry of foreign carmakers, thanks to a closed Indian market, it garnered about 70 per cent market share. But once Maruti entered the market, HM started to feel the heat. It failed to keep the Ambassador brand alive. In 2014, when the manufacturing of the Ambassador finally stopped, it had sold only 2,200 units.
The dinosaurs
HMT
Hindustan Machine Tools (HMT) was set up in the 1970s in collaboration with Citizen, a Japanese watch maker. HMT developed a very good technical base and produced good-quality products. Before the 1990s, it had a massive 90 per cent market share. But what it lacked was the style and variety in its products. Then came Titan from the Tata's stable. It took the market by storm. It offered what HMT was lacking, viz., variety of designs. HMT did not realise that watches were no more meant for just time keeping but had become an ornament.
The dinosaurs
Kinetic Motor Company
Kinetic Motors was a joint venture between Kinetic Engineering and Honda Motor Company of Japan. In 1988, Honda exited the joint venture. After Honda’s exit, things started getting worse. The company lost its appeal and failed to innovate. Once known for the Luna, it sold off its plants to Mahindra and got merged with the parent Kinetic Engineering. A few years later, the company ceased to exist. It had a market cap of just Rs20 crore when it last traded.
The dinosaurs
MTNL
MTNL, a public-sector enterprise, failed to change itself with time. It failed to adequately invest in its infrastructure to enhance its coverage and service quality, despite having a huge cash pile of around Rs4,892 crore in 2009 and being debt-free.  MTNL, which now has negative net worth, until 2010 used to generate huge free cash flows. Operating in only two major metro cities, MTNL had 28,877 employees as on December 31, 2016, while Airtel, which has a pan-India presence, operates with 22,815 employees.
The dinosaurs
Premier
Premier made the old iconic car Fiat 1100D or the Premier Padmini. This model was first launched in 1973 and remained the same till 1998, without many changes. Before Maruti 800, it was the favourite car of the upper middle class. After its demise, the company now manufactures a lesser known car RiO, which has failed to take off. The company also manufactures CNC (computer numerical control) machines but this division has frequently faced quality issues and customer complaints.
The dinosaurs
How to avoid dinosaurs
It is easy to look at the past and point at the companies that failed. When it comes to the present, it is difficult to figure out what company is on the road to extinction. One way you can spot future failures is by finding companies which are not changing with time.
Most of the examples discussed above did not introduce a new product or make improvements to their existing product line for decades. Their volume sales declined consistently but they did not put in effort to build up new capabilities. The balance sheet is a good indicator of future failures. Despite having resources, if a company doesn’t incur capital expenditure for long periods, that could be a sign of trouble.
Another cue is a lack of passion in the management. How do you spot a management that is passionate and has hunger for growth? Consider Bajaj Auto and Eicher Motors, the manufacturer of the Royal Enfield. Royal Enfield has kept its brand lively by introducing new variants and new features. It has held onto its niche of high-power bikes and originality of concept. Similarly, Bajaj has focused on constant changes to its bestselling model Pulsar. It kept innovating it, even though it was already doing well, and never grew complacent.
Also look for businesses that are coming up with innovative ideas and those that have remained relevant over time. Titan is one such example. It started with manufacturing watches in 1980s and took away the market share of HMT. It also sensed that the watch segment will have limited growth by the 1990s and, therefore, it ventured into the jewellery market through its Tanishq brand. It did not stop there. It captured the youth market by introducing its new brand Fastrack in the 2000s. Guess what, it is now testing a new market: that of sarees.

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Satyanarayan Pooja in My house....and stock market is discussed

Our friends and relatives had come to our house to attend the pooja and take gods blessing...God bless them all and also god bless all my readers....
Anyways interesting thing i am noticing that people have started taking in bits about stock market and the companies one is invested and they should invest it...the talk was casual and brief but the interesting thing is people have started talking about stock market...

My mom keeps satyanarayan pooja every year and it was the first year after 2008 have seen people discussing stock market...

Friday, August 11, 2017

Pharma Sector in Bear Grip....

The pharma sector is in complete Bear trend and prices are plummeting as there is no tomorrow... The bear trend started some where in the year 2015 and is still going on...it is a long term bear trend and probably time wise will last for other 2 years atleast till the time people get tired of selling and show no interest at all of purchasing or even of selling...total disinterest towards the pharma sector...Psychologically the retail investor should feel frustrated to even talk bout the sector...than it is the time to even increase exposure to the pharma sector even if you are invested... today the current situation is such that people are selling a if there is going to be end of selling medicines... Such negative talks of sector destruction are always spoken in the times of Pessimism and In Bear Trend... Companies will close down....medicines will stop selling...new technology will replace the intake of medicines...BLA BLA BLA....and the stories will go on and on... everyone will talk negative which is happening in the pharma sector and i can literally see in happening in the form of selling in the secondary markets...

Prices of most of the top pharma companies in india have plummeted more than 2.60 times from their Life Time tops...I dont say that still lower prices are not possible in these pharma companies in the coming months or years but the bottom is nearing and the Investors have become FEARFUL of the pharma sector in general....

But today investing in pharma sector is like standing below the falling knife and it will require great courage determination to purchase stocks in the pharma sector...and then to apply discipline for the next at least 5 to 8 years and stay invested for the long term...

Why Telecom Sector...is lagging

Telecom sector from 2008 is still bog down and lagging behind the secondary market bull trend for now...there are many reasons to it....
Firstly....Corruption in issuing licenses...
Secondly...The complete telecom sector is highly leverage...high debts...
Thirdly...Revenues and Profitability going down because of competition and lower of rates by companies to attract customers...
Fourtly...consolidation of the complete telecom sector by ways of Mergers and acquisitions...

Last point i like to add here is that still bad days are not over for telecom sectors as long as data usage of retail customers goes up and so does the revenues of the Telecom companies respectively....


Wednesday, August 9, 2017

SBI is consolidating at current levels....

SBI is strongly consolidating between 315 and 299...from the last 7 days and my view is that it will not go below 299 on closing basis....and most probably in next 4 days before coming Wednesday... i see SBI resuming its upwards rally....
The above expressed views are my personnel... based on technical analysis and i reserve my rights to go wrong...Also note it is not a recommendation to Buy or Sell....please consult your financial advisor before purchasing or selling any Stocks....Anyways Prediction is a game of chance and probabilities are always 50/50....

Monday, August 7, 2017

NEW IPOs...

From the last 6 months the frequency of NEW IPOs have increased drastically...also on the listing day the speculation is so high that some of the issues are listed with premiums of 20% minimum....also now the NEW IPOs are getting subscribe by 10....40....some even 100 times....

The party has started and we have entered the Optimistic phase....the flow of money in the stock market by retail investors through mutual funds is very high.....so correction timewise will be short lived and also price wise corrections levels from top will be very less....

the current rally clearly shows that nifty will travel to 10350 to 10450 levels for now in the coming 20 days....

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Read Sensex and Nifty Target By a famous analyst who comes on CNBC TV18

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/trends/expert-columns-2/tulsian-tells-these-factors-will-see-nifty-hit-20k-sensex-65k-in-less-than-5-years-2351399.html

Tulsian tells: These factors will see Nifty hit 20K, Sensex 65K in less than 5 years....


SP Tulsian Aug 07, 2017 10:31 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com
The Nifty’s move to 10,000 in the last week of July, has boosted market sentiment. As with any big move, this one too was quite swift and unexpected, with the index gaining 500 points in one month alone.

“Is this rally sustainable?” is the question uppermost in the minds of media, stock market experts, brokers and investors. I have been positive on the market since January (even when most experts were cautious or negative) and predicted the Nifty hitting within 10,000 sometime during the year. I remain positive, not just for remainder of 2017, but for the next four-and-a-half years, during which the Nifty can go all the way up to 20,000, and the Sensex to 65,000.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.........Aug 05, 2017 04:48 PM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

In his recent interview with CNBC-TV18 earlier in the year, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said that investors should not get worried about one day of correction as "we are far away from the peak". Nifty is more likely to double in the next 4-5 years, he said.
The bull market will only eclipse when three factors are present — valuation froth, commitment froth and when there is bad news, he explained. Elaborating on them, Jhunjhunwala said just by valuation froth, bull markets will not end. By commitment froth, it means that there is a lot of leverage buying, which is still not there. The third factor is bad news and when investors sell on the bad news, there is no buyer.

Saturday, August 5, 2017

NIfTY LEVels....and COrrEction.....

My opinion and view are my personal and I hope and predict that Nifty will start it's CorrEcTion BEfOre 23 auGUst....mY lEVEls foR nifty is betWEen 10350.....10400 and tHEn prOBAbly corRECtion wiLL STArt.....
CorrEcTion will be as what happens in a BULL market and thereafter in few months again the UPTred  rally will STart

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

When will the nifty correct even after crossing 10000...

Isnt it difficult to predict...yes it is...because prediction is a fools game....anyways from the last few days am taking reports from my friends who are working in broking firms all provided me with the information that from the last few day retail investors who are their clients...selling their complete delivery stock holding in cash market....why because 10000 nifty levels is very high and market should correct from here is the perception of retail investors today....no doubt we are at 25PE as per todays data....But if all retail investors are selling then markets cannot correct and also the buying and euphoria what i experienced in Feb 2015 is complete not there....in Feb 2015 people were only buying as if there was no tomorrow...and these time it is completely missing today...so if they are selling then the question of the market correcting from here say by 12% doesnt arise for sure...So Psychologically i feel that the steam of the market is still left and all these people are going to be trapped finally is what i feel...The last gush of euphoria of the current rally is still left as per my views....Anyways i reserved to be holding my independent views about the markets and in no way am i giving recommendation to anyone to hold on to my views....

Note: but to what levels the nifty will travel from here is very difficult to say...also coming 3/4 days nifty might see a small correction...and thereafter will again resume its uptrend...

But i can be proved otherwise also....

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Building Contractor started Investing in Mutual Funds

15 days back our office building repairing contractor came in our office and discussing about a parcel of land he wanted to buy in some remote area of western Maharashtra....suddenly the topic changed to stock market and he told us from the last 4 to 5 months he is investing like 80000/- per month in different schemes of equity mutual funds...

Also just few days back myself and my cousins had gone to Mahabaleshwar and to my surprise almost nearly after 8 months the topic of discussion started with stock market....the talk lasted for almost like half an hour which was very surprising for me...

The interest in the stock market is coming slowly slowly....

Monday, July 31, 2017

Dubious Calls and Messages...

What the hell....from the last two months i have been receiving phone calls from assholes whether i am investing or trading in stock market....and everyday i get automatic messages every day  on my mobile to buy Penny stocks...
One more sign to show people have gone berserk and crazy in the short term...and means that the current rally has to correct in the next few weeks...

HEROMOTO CORP a good buy at current levels....

i think that heromoto corp has a little upside left and can go to levels of 4200 in the short period...in next 4 weeks most probably...presently it is at 3600 and in correction phase after touching 3880....the worst it can go down is uptill 3475....but 4200 is for sure is my view....

Note: the above is no recommendation to purchase HEROMOTO CORP and i hold my personnel views and reserved to go wrong in my prediction as it is a game of 50% chance...please consult and purchase stocks as per the advice of your financial advisor....

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Debt Corelation with Stocks

When investors find Debt safe and invest more in debt Instruments...Relatively Equities are cheaper...
When investors find Stocks safe and invest more in Equity Instruments...Relatively the Debts are cheaper...

Rate Cut Probability: today the rate cut probability have increased as the demand for the corporate  loans is almost negligible but the demand for Retail loan is very good but it is hardly as compared to the Corporate loans... So there is hardly any Capex Cycle... Today the Corporates are not borrowing and are Deleveraging instead of Leveraging...so this cycle of Delevearging has to get completed and thereafter only the Capex cycle will start... Presently there is no Demand for Money... So if there is no Demand for Money then the Interest Rates have to go down which i am propagandizing from the last one year that once the G sec 10 years yield rates has to go below 5:50% in the coming next 10 months for the Demand for Money to pick up...which presently is 6:43%....
Demand for Money today is at record LOw and will be so for the coming next 8 to 12 months....
The above are my Personnel Views and no ways a recommendation....

As per Investors....
Between 2008 to 2014 Debt was a safe Asset Class...and Equity was a bad asset class
between 2014 and 2017(till date) Debt is a bad asset class and Equity is a safe asset class...

But for contrarian investing it is vice versa....

2013 Disbelief  Phase (Informed fundamental Investors) INNOVATOR...First Phase
2017 Optimism Phase (Friends/Relatives) IMMITATOR...Second Phase
2021/22 Euphoria (Shoe polish/Barber/rickshaw) IDIOTS...Third Phase

Quality Stock Rally lasted for 8 years from 2007 to 2015....PE between 40 to 60
Page Industries...
Cummins....
Bosch....

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

U.S. mortgage market crisis....

What did we see in the U.S. mortgage market as home prices rose and interest rates declined? First, low teaser rates. Then higher loan-to-value ratios. Then 100% financing. Then low-amortization loans. Then no-amortization loans. Then loans requiring no documentation of employment or credit history. These things made it possible for more buyers to stretch for more expensive homes, but at the same time they made mortgages riskier for lenders. And these developments took place when home prices were at sky-high and interest rates were at multi-generation lows. In the end, buyers took out the biggest mortgage possible given their incomes and prevailing interest rates. Such mortgages would land them in the houses of their dreams . . . and leave them there for as long as conditions didn’t deteriorate, which they invariably do.

When credit markets are tight and providers of capital are reticent, money can be hard to come by. Companies’ demand for financing can exceed the supply, putting negotiating power in the hands of the lenders. Thus lenders can insist on – and obtain – strict covenants, and bonds issued in such an environment are likely to be relatively safe. But when usually disciplined bond buyers have to compete against others who aren’t acting in a disciplined fashion, their ability to insist on covenant protection goes out the window. In economics, Gresham’s Law says “bad money drives out good.” That’s why, when paper money joined gold as legal tender, gold was put in the strongbox rather than spent, and only paper money circulated. The same thing happens in the investing world: bad investors drive out good. When undisciplined investors are out there with lots of money to get rid of, there’s less scope for disciplined investors to insist on strong covenants. That’s why the level of covenant protection is a good barometer of the market climate.

Eventually, one would think, many of the forestalled defaults will demonstrate their inevitability, with the companies falling from more highly leveraged heights. And certainly the capital markets’ willingness to finance less-than-deserving companies will lead ultimately to a higher level of corporate distress. Thus, everything else being equal, the bigger the boom – the greater the excesses of the capital markets in the upward direction – the greater the bust. Timing and extent are never predictable, but the occurrence of cycles is the closest thing I know to inevitable. And usually, the air goes out of the balloon a lot faster than it goes in.

It’s folly to think we know in advance just what it is that will cause the market pendulum to stop swinging in one direction and start in the other, but it’s even greater folly to think that nothing of that nature will happen. That’s my twist on one of my favorite quotes, from behaviorist Amos Tversky: It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly whats going on..

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. Over the last few years, some people went around saying, “We don’t know what bad thing will happen, but something will,” and others said, “We’re confident that nothing bad will happen.” Now, as is often the case, unassuming caution seems to be winning out over cocksure optimism. 

Saturday, July 22, 2017

My Reason to Buy NTPC presently....

Psychological.... Today Power Sector is out o f Favour....no one talks about it....power sector was darling of 2008 bull market....and today it is the neglected kid because of the interference from the respective state governments and the central government...

The good thing recently has happened is all the receivables by the power generating companies have been offset because of UDAY policy...ie the state government and the central government will pay all the dues of the respective power generating companies...also now the companies will have their own say...but one drawback these companies have is their Rate of return is pecked at a fixed rate of 15%...so it is finite and they can increase their rates as per inflation...also the revenues can increase only because of new generation of electric power by setting new plants....

Technically....NTPC is coming out of a long lull of 8 years from the high it made in 2008....8 years is too much for any sector to pass through a bear phase...it does not mean that the stock will shoot up overnight but the Risk Reward ratio is in favour of long term investing and too add the stock in ones portfolio....

My buying price for NTPC is between....164 to 168.... and in no way it is a recommendation to purchase the stock...the views expressed above are my personnel views and please consult your financial advisor before purchasing any stocks....

Do you remember the game Bid-a-Note from the TV show “Name that Tune”? Contestant x said, “I can name that tune in six notes.” Then contestant y said, “I can name that tune in five notes.” Then contestant x said, “I can name that tune in four notes.” The contestant who eventually got the chance to guess the name of the tune was the one who was willing to accept the riskiest proposition – to try on the basis of the least information.

When To Sell....

WHEN TO SELL...it is the most difficult question asked by LAKHS OF investors TILL DATE AND NO ONE HAS found THE correct ANSWER....TRUE...but the answer is hidden somewhere and we need to find out...

YES...taxidrivers...your folks/nephews/relatives....your barber....your rakdiwalas....START PURCHASING STOCKS...THE IDIOT LOT....LAST LOT...it is when people are over confident and there is no other way FOR the stock market TO go... but up....it is when everybody agrees that new era has come...and THEY ALL COLLECTIVELY START givING a new definition to the current ONGOING bull trend....rate of return for the next 5 years from present....22% cagr FOR SURE.... AND IT WILL GO ON ENDLESSLY.....WHEN EVERYBODY WITHOUT OPPOSING AGREES ON SOMETHING THATS WHEN YOU HAVE GOT A PROBLEM....LONG MARKET because BOOM IS HERE TO STAY...ECONOMIC GROWTH IS BEST THAN IT WAS IN A LONG TIME....
At the top of the Euphoric economy the competition to put out money and the usual late-stage belief that “it’s different this time.” Lenders and investors invariably depart from time-honored disciplines when cycles move to extremes, out of a belief that current conditions are different from those that prevailed in the past, when those disciplines were appropriate. And just as invariably, they’re shown that cycles repeat and nothing really changes.

THE ABOVE REASONS ARE MORE THEN ENOUGH TO GIVE YOU A GUT FEELING WITHIN  YOUR STOMACH THAT THE STOCK MARKETS ARE OVERPRICED AND ITS TIME TO GET OUT OF IT...

BUT WAIT EVEN AFTER KNOWING THE ABOVE REASONS THOROUGHLY AND EXPERIENCING ALL OF THEM AT THE TOP OF THE MARKET FORMATION... WILL YOU BE ABLE TO GET OUT OF THE MARKET...

HAHAHAA...ABSOLUTELY NOT...WHY???....THE REASON IS PSYCHOLOGY.....IT PLAYS A HAVOC ON OUR FRAGILE MIND AND MONEY IS THE BIGGEST ROOT CAUSE OF THAT PROBLEM...WHICH IN OTHER WORDS CAN ALSO BE DESCRIBE AS ""GREED"" ...YES GREED IS WHAT WILL NOT ALLOW US TO SELL AT THE TOP OF THE MARKET EVEN AFTER RECOGNIZING THE SEVERITY OF THE BULL TREND AND WHEN THE PROBABILITY OF THE STOCK MARKET GOING DOWN FROM THE TOP ARE 97/3....BUT STILL THE GREED FOR THE EXTRA 3% WILL SEE TO IT THAT WE LOSE ALL THAT WE HAD EARNED IN THE LAST 5 YEARS...

SO TO SAY IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTROL OUR EMOTIONS WHEN WE ARE IN THE BULL MARKET...MY SUGGESTION IS TO BUY IN GOOD FUNDAMENTAL BUSINESSES AND WHEN THERE IS BLOOD ON THE STREET....AND FEAR IS THE DOMINANT FACTOR....TODAY LITTLE FEAR IS THERE BUT NOT A DOMINANT FACTOR...ACTUALLY WE HAVE COME OUT OF THE DOMINANT FEAR FACTOR AND ENTERED THE OPTIMISM PHASE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO EUPHORIC STAGE....

HAPPY  LONG TERM INVESTING.....

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Nifty Target for July/August2017....and then Correction

July/August....10350
therafter CorrECTIon BETweeN....9300....9050....

but we are in bull trend......

nifty correction targets are my personnel views and no recommendations...

Monday, July 17, 2017

The Problem with Rewarding Individual Performers.....

In 1968, The Ohio State Buckeyes football team started one of the most cherished traditions in American sports. According to team legend, a member of the coaching staff proposed an idea to motivate the players. After each game, the coaches would reward the best players with small stickers resembling buckeye leaves to place on their helmets. The staff reasoned that rewarding stellar individual performances would provide the right incentive to excel. The Buckeyes won the national championship that year, and football teams around the country have copied the tradition of rewarding individual excellence.
But by 2001, the once-dominant Buckeyes had slipped into mediocrity. When Jim Tressel was hired to coach the team, he completely revamped how players earned a buckeye. Instead of rewarding a player for scoring a touchdown, for instance, every player on the offensive unit would get a sticker if the team scored more than 24 points. And the coaching staff gave every player on the team a sticker after each win. Favoring teamwork over individual performance paid off almost immediately—the team not only won a national championship the following year, but the Buckeyes have been one of the most successful teams in the country ever since and are a threat to win the National Championship again this year.
Although leaders are concerned with collective success, most organizations—from sports teams to universities to global companies—still focus on rewarding individual performance. The majority of Fortune 500 companies reward the most productive individuals, not the most effective groups or indispensable group members. We believe that leaders at these organizations are overlooking something fundamental about human nature—our tribalism.
Human beings evolved in groups, and most of us still work in groups every day. Our affinity for groups is wired deeply into our basic biology. Indeed, humans are unique among primates in that we readily cooperate with in-group members–even if they are completely unknown to us. This is why sports fans can show up to a stadium and immediately share common purpose with 100,000 complete strangers. Even more striking, research in our labs has found that the simple act of joining a group can produce a dramatic influence on brain function and behavior. At the mere flip of a coin, people readily befriend and place their trust in fellow in-group members. And our research has found that creating mixed-race groups can override implicit racial bias. Group identification is one ingredient that can bring strangers together.
Given that group membership is such a deeply rooted part of human nature and organizational success, a central element of leadership is the management of group identities. In short, great leaders are “entrepreneurs of identity.” They embrace our tribal nature and seek to shape the identity of their fellow group members. This social relationship between leaders and followers is at the heart of transformational leadership.
When a person starts to identify with a group, it triggers a fundamental shift in their goals. Events and decisions that were once evaluated with reference to oneself (“what’s in it for me?”) are now evaluated in reference to the group (“what does this mean for us?”). In fact, research shows that even otherwise selfish individuals often become cooperative—and even altruistic—when they identify with a group. Once their self becomes fused with the group, they are motivated to pursue what they understand to be the goals of the group.
Group identity can explain a range of remarkable behaviors, ranging from putting in long hours at work to making the ultimate sacrifice for one’s country. Many experiments have now shown that members will act to benefit to their groups, even when doing so exacts a personal cost. One reason is because we share in the success and rewards of our in-group members—we bask in their reflected glory and feel pleasure when they receive a reward. As such, the key to leading groups is fostering an environment in which individual group members deeply identify with the team.
To cultivate a strong group identity, leaders can take the following steps: (1) ensure the group satisfies basic the psychological needs of individual members, (2) generates super-ordinate goals, (3) rewards individual contributions to the group, and (4) values dissent.
  1. Focus on employees’ social needs. Organizations traditionally use financial rewards to motivate employees, but great leaders also fulfill the social needs of their employees. Compelling groups satisfy one or more fundamental human needs, including the need to belongobtain statusfeel distinctive, and maintain certainty or control. By balancing individuals’ need to belong with their desire to stand out, a leader can build a sense of “optimal distinctiveness” among group members. Leaders seeking to increase members’ group identification need to first consider the basic social needs of their members and then determine how the group might do a better job fulfilling them.
  2. Set superordinate goals. Recent neuroscience studies suggest that cooperation is inherently rewarding. But many people will only cooperate with fellow in-group members. In many organizations, the loyalty of employees lies with their department or project team, rather than the whole organization. While internal divisions can be useful at times—a bit of healthy competition between departments can drive people to work harder–employees can lose sight of organizational goals or may even sabotage other departments. Visionary leaders communicate the superordinate goals of the organization and explain how all the divisions, departments, and project teams are necessary for achieving these goals.
  3. Reward both collective and individual effort. Leaders need to reward behavior that advances the goals of the organization, rather than the individual. Effective leaders provide bonuses, recognition, raises, flexibility, and opportunities, based on the entire team’s performance. To avoid free-riding (when team members shirk their personal responsibility), individual rewards should also be given to individuals who make important contributions to the team’s success. This rewards indispensable team members—the unsung heroes who work late, cover for colleagues, and enhance the success of the group. Combining individual and collective rewards can promote stronger group identity and ensure that individual members are encouraged and motivated (not only financial, but also socially) to pursue the team’s goals and help the team succeed.
Group cohesion can also be a weakness—suppressing dissent and creativity, and creating mindless conformity. How can leaders capitalize on the benefits of group cohesion while avoiding its drawbacks?
  1. Avoid the downsides of conformity by valuing dissent. Many people assume that dissenters are trying to damage the group. But our research suggests that committed group members are the ones who are most likely to speak up when things are going badly for the group because they care deeply about group success. Thus, constructive dissent needs to be explicitly valued in organizations to avoid groupthink and bad decision-making. Leaders need to make it easy for group members to speak out against bad ideas. For instance, leaders can designate certain group members to act as devil’s advocate to ensure the group reaches the best possible decision. To create a culture where constructive feedback and innovation flourishes, leaders should also encourage their employees to pursue organizational goalsrather than simply follow organizational norms.
The bottom line is that leaders need to understand and harness the tribal psychology that is deeply imprinted onto the human brain. The ease with which people categorize the social world into groups speaks to our nature, and provides a powerful potential tool for leaders. Our capacity to identify with groups provides the foundations for cooperation with others—even complete strangers. Thus, great leaders must become entrepreneurs of identity.

Storytelling That Moves People.....

Persuasion is the centerpiece of business activity. Customers must be convinced to buy your company’s products or services, employees and colleagues to go along with a new strategic plan or reorganization, investors to buy (or not to sell) your stock, and partners to sign the next deal. But despite the critical importance of persuasion, most executives struggle to communicate, let alone inspire. Too often, they get lost in the accoutrements of companyspeak: PowerPoint slides, dry memos, and hyperbolic missives from the corporate communications department. Even the most carefully researched and considered efforts are routinely greeted with cynicism, lassitude, or outright dismissal.
Why is persuasion so difficult, and what can you do to set people on fire? In search of answers to those questions, HBR senior editor Bronwyn Fryer paid a visit to Robert McKee, the world’s best-known and most respected screenwriting lecturer, at his home in Los Angeles. An award-winning writer and director, McKee moved to California after studying for his Ph.D. in cinema arts at the University of Michigan. He then taught at the University of Southern California’s School of Cinema and Television before forming his own company, Two-Arts, to take his lectures on the art of storytelling worldwide to an audience of writers, directors, producers, actors, and entertainment executives.
McKee’s students have written, directed, and produced hundreds of hit films, including Forrest Gump, Erin Brockovich, The Color Purple, Gandhi, Monty Python and the Holy Grail, Sleepless in Seattle, Toy Story, and Nixon. They have won 18 Academy Awards, 109 Emmy Awards, 19 Writers Guild Awards, and 16 Directors Guild of America Awards. Emmy Award winner Brian Cox portrays McKee in the 2002 film Adaptation, which follows the life of a screenwriter trying to adapt the book The Orchid Thief. McKee also serves as a project consultant to film and television production companies such as Disney, Pixar, and Paramount as well as major corporations, including Microsoft, which regularly send their entire creative staffs to his lectures.
McKee believes that executives can engage listeners on a whole new level if they toss their PowerPoint slides and learn to tell good stories instead. In his best-selling book Story: Substance, Structure, Style, and the Principles of Screenwriting, published in 1997 by Harper-Collins, McKee argues that stories “fulfill a profound human need to grasp the patterns of living—not merely as an intellectual exercise, but within a very personal, emotional experience.” What follows is an edited and abridged transcript of McKee’s conversation with HBR.
Why should a CEO or a manager pay attention to a screenwriter?
A big part of a CEO’s job is to motivate people to reach certain goals. To do that, he or she must engage their emotions, and the key to their hearts is story. There are two ways to persuade people. The first is by using conventional rhetoric, which is what most executives are trained in. It’s an intellectual process, and in the business world it usually consists of a PowerPoint slide presentation in which you say, “Here is our company’s biggest challenge, and here is what we need to do to prosper.” And you build your case by giving statistics and facts and quotes from authorities. But there are two problems with rhetoric. First, the people you’re talking to have their own set of authorities, statistics, and experiences. While you’re trying to persuade them, they are arguing with you in their heads. Second, if you do succeed in persuading them, you’ve done so only on an intellectual basis. That’s not good enough, because people are not inspired to act by reason alone.
The other way to persuade people—and ultimately a much more powerful way—is by uniting an idea with an emotion. The best way to do that is by telling a compelling story. In a story, you not only weave a lot of information into the telling but you also arouse your listener’s emotions and energy. Persuading with a story is hard. Any intelligent person can sit down and make lists. It takes rationality but little creativity to design an argument using conventional rhetoric. But it demands vivid insight and storytelling skill to present an idea that packs enough emotional power to be memorable. If you can harness imagination and the principles of a well-told story, then you get people rising to their feet amid thunderous applause instead of yawning and ignoring you.
So What is a story?
Essentially, a story expresses how and why life changes. It begins with a situation in which life is relatively in balance: You come to work day after day, week after week, and everything’s fine. You expect it will go on that way. But then there’s an event—in screenwriting, we call it the “inciting incident”—that throws life out of balance. You get a new job, or the boss dies of a heart attack, or a big customer threatens to leave. The story goes on to describe how, in an effort to restore balance, the protagonist’s subjective expectations crash into an uncooperative objective reality. A good storyteller describes what it’s like to deal with these opposing forces, calling on the protagonist to dig deeper, work with scarce resources, make difficult decisions, take action despite risks, and ultimately discover the truth. All great storytellers since the dawn of time—from the ancient Greeks through Shakespeare and up to the present day—have dealt with this fundamental conflict between subjective expectation and cruel reality.
How would an executive learn to tell stories?
Stories have been implanted in you thousands of times since your mother took you on her knee. You’ve read good books, seen movies, attended plays. What’s more, human beings naturally want to work through stories. Cognitive psychologists describe how the human mind, in its attempt to understand and remember, assembles the bits and pieces of experience into a story, beginning with a personal desire, a life objective, and then portraying the struggle against the forces that block that desire. Stories are how we remember; we tend to forget lists and bullet points.
Businesspeople not only have to understand their companies’ past, but then they must project the future. And how do you imagine the future? As a story. You create scenarios in your head of possible future events to try to anticipate the life of your company or your own personal life. So, if a businessperson understands that his or her own mind naturally wants to frame experience in a story, the key to moving an audience is not to resist this impulse but to embrace it by telling a good story.
What makes a good story?
You emphatically do not want to tell a beginning-to-end tale describing how results meet expectations. This is boring and banal. Instead, you want to display the struggle between expectation and reality in all its nastiness.
For example, let’s imagine the story of a biotech start-up we’ll call Chemcorp, whose CEO has to persuade some Wall Street bankers to invest in the company. He could tell them that Chemcorp has discovered a chemical compound that prevents heart attacks and offer up a lot of slides showing them the size of the market, the business plan, the organizational chart, and so on. The bankers would nod politely and stifle yawns while thinking of all the other companies better positioned in Chemcorp’s market.
Alternatively, the CEO could turn his pitch into a story, beginning with someone close to him—say, his father—who died of a heart attack. So nature itself is the first antagonist that the CEO-as-protagonist must overcome. The story might unfold like this: In his grief, he realizes that if there had been some chemical indication of heart disease, his father’s death could have been prevented. His company discovers a protein that’s present in the blood just before heart attacks and develops an easy-to-administer, low-cost test.
But now it faces a new antagonist: the FDA. The approval process is fraught with risks and dangers. The FDA turns down the first application, but new research reveals that the test performs even better than anyone had expected, so the agency approves a second application. Meanwhile, Chemcorp is running out of money, and a key partner drops out and goes off to start his own company. Now Chemcorp is in a fight-to-the-finish patent race.
This accumulation of antagonists creates great suspense. The protagonist has raised the idea in the bankers’ heads that the story might not have a happy ending. By now, he has them on the edges of their seats, and he says, “We won the race, we got the patent, we’re poised to go public and save a quarter-million lives a year.” And the bankers just throw money at him.
“If you can harness imagination and the principles of a well-told story, then you get people rising to their feet amid thunderous applause instead of yawning and ignoring you.”

Aren’t you really talking about exaggeration and manipulation?
No. Although businesspeople are often suspicious of stories for the reasons you suggest, the fact is that statistics are used to tell lies and damn lies, while accounting reports are often BS in a ball gown—witness Enron and WorldCom.
When people ask me to help them turn their presentations into stories, I begin by asking questions. I kind of psychoanalyze their companies, and amazing dramas pour out. But most companies and executives sweep the dirty laundry, the difficulties, the antagonists, and the struggle under the carpet. They prefer to present a rosy—and boring—picture to the world. But as a storyteller, you want to position the problems in the foreground and then show how you’ve overcome them. When you tell the story of your struggles against real antagonists, your audience sees you as an exciting, dynamic person. And I know that the storytelling method works, because after I consulted with a dozen corporations whose principals told exciting stories to Wall Street, they all got their money.
What’s wrong with painting a positive picture?
It doesn’t ring true. You can send out a press release talking about increased sales and a bright future, but your audience knows it’s never that easy. They know you’re not spotless; they know your competitor doesn’t wear a black hat. They know you’ve slanted your statement to make your company look good. Positive, hypothetical pictures and boilerplate press releases actually work against you because they foment distrust among the people you’re trying to convince. I suspect that most CEOs do not believe their own spin doctors—and if they don’t believe the hype, why should the public?
The great irony of existence is that what makes life worth living does not come from the rosy side. We would all rather be lotus-eaters, but life will not allow it. The energy to live comes from the dark side. It comes from everything that makes us suffer. As we struggle against these negative powers, we’re forced to live more deeply, more fully.
So acknowledging this dark side makes you more convincing?
Of course. Because you’re more truthful. One of the principles of good storytelling is the understanding that we all live in dread. Fear is when you don’t know what’s going to happen. Dread is when you know what’s going to happen and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. Death is the great dread; we all live in an ever shrinking shadow of time, and between now and then all kinds of bad things could happen.
Most of us repress this dread. We get rid of it by inflicting it on other people through sarcasm, cheating, abuse, indifference—cruelties great and small. We all commit those little evils that relieve the pressure and make us feel better. Then we rationalize our bad behavior and convince ourselves we’re good people. Institutions do the same thing: They deny the existence of the negative while inflicting their dread on other institutions or their employees.
If you’re a realist, you know that this is human nature; in fact, you realize that this behavior is the foundation of all nature. The imperative in nature is to follow the golden rule of survival: Do unto others what they do unto you. In nature, if you offer cooperation and get cooperation back, you get along. But if you offer cooperation and get antagonism back, then you give antagonism in return—in spades.
Ever since human beings sat around the fire in caves, we’ve told stories to help us deal with the dread of life and the struggle to survive. All great stories illuminate the dark side. I’m not talking about so-called “pure” evil, because there is no such thing. We are all evil and good, and these sides do continual battle. Kenneth Lay says wiping out people’s jobs and life savings was unintentional. Hannibal Lecter is witty, charming, and brilliant, and he eats people’s livers. Audiences appreciate the truthfulness of a storyteller who acknowledges the dark side of human beings and deals honestly with antagonistic events. The story engenders a positive but realistic energy in the people who hear it.
Does this mean you have to be a pessimist?
It’s not a question of whether you’re optimistic or pessimistic. It seems to me that the civilized human being is a skeptic—someone who believes nothing at face value. Skepticism is another principle of the storyteller. The skeptic understands the difference between text and subtext and always seeks what’s really going on. The skeptic hunts for the truth beneath the surface of life, knowing that the real thoughts and feelings of institutions or individuals are unconscious and unexpressed. The skeptic is always looking behind the mask. Street kids, for example, with their tattoos, piercings, chains, and leather, wear amazing masks, but the skeptic knows the mask is only a persona. Inside anyone working that hard to look fierce is a marshmallow. Genuinely hard people make no effort.
So, a story that embraces darkness produces a positive energy in listeners?
Absolutely. We follow people in whom we believe. The best leaders I’ve dealt with—producers and directors—have come to terms with dark reality. Instead of communicating via spin doctors, they lead their actors and crews through the antagonism of a world in which the odds of getting the film made, distributed, and sold to millions of moviegoers are a thousand to one. They appreciate that the people who work for them love the work and live for the small triumphs that contribute to the final triumph.
CEOs, likewise, have to sit at the head of the table or in front of the microphone and navigate their companies through the storms of bad economies and tough competition. If you look your audience in the eye, lay out your really scary challenges, and say, “We’ll be lucky as hell if we get through this, but here’s what I think we should do,” they will listen to you.
To get people behind you, you can tell a truthful story. The story of General Electric is wonderful and has nothing to do with Jack Welch’s cult of celebrity. If you have a grand view of life, you can see it on all its complex levels and celebrate it in a story. A great CEO is someone who has come to terms with his or her own mortality and, as a result, has compassion for others. This compassion is expressed in stories.
Take the love of work, for example. Years ago, when I was in graduate school, I worked as an insurance fraud investigator. The claimant in one case was an immigrant who’d suffered a terrible head injury on a carmaker’s assembly line. He’d been the fastest window assembler on the line and took great pride in his work. When I spoke to him, he was waiting to have a titanium plate inserted into his head.
The man had been grievously injured, but the company thought he was a fraud. In spite of that, he remained incredibly dedicated. All he wanted was to get back to work. He knew the value of work, no matter how repetitive. He took pride in it and even in the company that had falsely accused him. How wonderful it would have been for the CEO of that car company to tell the tale of how his managers recognized the falseness of their accusation and then rewarded the employee for his dedication. The company, in turn, would have been rewarded with redoubled effort from all the employees who heard that story.
How do storytellers discover and unearth the stories that want to be told?
The storyteller discovers a story by asking certain key questions. First, what does my protagonist want in order to restore balance in his or her life? Desire is the blood of a story. Desire is not a shopping list but a core need that, if satisfied, would stop the story in its tracks. Next, what is keeping my protagonist from achieving his or her desire? Forces within? Doubt? Fear? Confusion? Personal conflicts with friends, family, lovers? Social conflicts arising in the various institutions in society? Physical conflicts? The forces of Mother Nature? Lethal diseases in the air? Not enough time to get things done? The damned automobile that won’t start? Antagonists come from people, society, time, space, and every object in it, or any combination of these forces at once. Then, how would my protagonist decide to act in order to achieve his or her desire in the face of these antagonistic forces? It’s in the answer to that question that storytellers discover the truth of their characters, because the heart of a human being is revealed in the choices he or she makes under pressure. Finally, the storyteller leans back from the design of events he or she has created and asks, “Do I believe this? Is it neither an exaggeration nor a soft-soaping of the struggle? Is this an honest telling, though heaven may fall?”
Does being a good storyteller make you a good leader?
Not necessarily, but if you understand the principles of storytelling, you probably have a good understanding of yourself and of human nature, and that tilts the odds in your favor. I can teach the formal principles of stories, but not to a person who hasn’t really lived. The art of storytelling takes intelligence, but it also demands a life experience that I’ve noted in gifted film directors: the pain of childhood. Childhood trauma forces you into a kind of mild schizophrenia that makes you see life simultaneously in two ways: First, it’s direct, real-time experience, but at the same moment, your brain records it as material—material out of which you will create business ideas, science, or art. Like a double-edged knife, the creative mind cuts to the truth of self and the humanity of others.

Self-knowledge is the root of all great storytelling. A storyteller creates all characters from the self by asking the question, “If I were this character in these circumstances, what would I do?” The more you understand your own humanity, the more you can appreciate the humanity of others in all their good-versus-evil struggles. I would argue that the great leaders Jim Collins describes are people with enormous self-knowledge. They have self-insight and self-respect balanced by skepticism. Great storytellers—and, I suspect, great leaders—are skeptics who understand their own masks as well as the masks of life, and this understanding makes them humble. They see the humanity in others and deal with them in a compassionate yet realistic way. That duality makes for a wonderful leader.