When investors find Debt safe and invest more in debt Instruments...Relatively Equities are cheaper...
When investors find Stocks safe and invest more in Equity Instruments...Relatively the Debts are cheaper...
Rate Cut Probability: today the rate cut probability have increased as the demand for the corporate loans is almost negligible but the demand for Retail loan is very good but it is hardly as compared to the Corporate loans... So there is hardly any Capex Cycle... Today the Corporates are not borrowing and are Deleveraging instead of Leveraging...so this cycle of Delevearging has to get completed and thereafter only the Capex cycle will start... Presently there is no Demand for Money... So if there is no Demand for Money then the Interest Rates have to go down which i am propagandizing from the last one year that once the G sec 10 years yield rates has to go below 5:50% in the coming next 10 months for the Demand for Money to pick up...which presently is 6:43%....
Demand for Money today is at record LOw and will be so for the coming next 8 to 12 months....
When investors find Stocks safe and invest more in Equity Instruments...Relatively the Debts are cheaper...
Rate Cut Probability: today the rate cut probability have increased as the demand for the corporate loans is almost negligible but the demand for Retail loan is very good but it is hardly as compared to the Corporate loans... So there is hardly any Capex Cycle... Today the Corporates are not borrowing and are Deleveraging instead of Leveraging...so this cycle of Delevearging has to get completed and thereafter only the Capex cycle will start... Presently there is no Demand for Money... So if there is no Demand for Money then the Interest Rates have to go down which i am propagandizing from the last one year that once the G sec 10 years yield rates has to go below 5:50% in the coming next 10 months for the Demand for Money to pick up...which presently is 6:43%....
Demand for Money today is at record LOw and will be so for the coming next 8 to 12 months....
The above are my Personnel Views and no ways a recommendation....
As per Investors....
Between 2008 to 2014 Debt was a safe Asset Class...and Equity was a bad asset class
between 2014 and 2017(till date) Debt is a bad asset class and Equity is a safe asset class...
But for contrarian investing it is vice versa....
2013 Disbelief Phase (Informed fundamental Investors) INNOVATOR...First Phase
2017 Optimism Phase (Friends/Relatives) IMMITATOR...Second Phase
2021/22 Euphoria (Shoe polish/Barber/rickshaw) IDIOTS...Third Phase
Quality Stock Rally lasted for 8 years from 2007 to 2015....PE between 40 to 60
Page Industries...
Cummins....
Bosch....
As per Investors....
Between 2008 to 2014 Debt was a safe Asset Class...and Equity was a bad asset class
between 2014 and 2017(till date) Debt is a bad asset class and Equity is a safe asset class...
But for contrarian investing it is vice versa....
2013 Disbelief Phase (Informed fundamental Investors) INNOVATOR...First Phase
2017 Optimism Phase (Friends/Relatives) IMMITATOR...Second Phase
2021/22 Euphoria (Shoe polish/Barber/rickshaw) IDIOTS...Third Phase
Quality Stock Rally lasted for 8 years from 2007 to 2015....PE between 40 to 60
Page Industries...
Cummins....
Bosch....
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