Saturday, June 30, 2018

Freeze Mode....Small Changes

Freeze Mode....

Yes aren't we....I mean in the freeze mode....state of inertia...sitting ideal....of doing nothing and let the situation turn around to once again become favourable to you...our brain has become indecisive to take a judgement whether the midcaps or Smallcaps will fall further or will go up....whether to stay invested or to sell in the current scenario.....it's about the ongoing battle in your mind and a full blown war is  waging in your head which at times tells you to sell and at times tells you to wait that the prices will go up.... It's a common fallacy experienced by all investors and these state of restless makes sure that we don't sell and our portfolio becomes Red and the loses  on our investment  goes  up and eventually the accumulated losses becomes deeper and deeper.....no way you can get out of such situation because your brain is not ready to accept the loss and your brain will still give you false hope that good days will surely come and how the hell can you sell your stocks at a loss...so the waiting game starts and the small changes in prices on the downside keeps on going further downwards and we still maintain our status quo...not realising that something is wrong and things are not what they were just a few months back....so these is the time to take things in your command and introspect the current situation and think out of the box and to analyse the real situation before it is too late.... first happens the small changes and these small changes are not easily readable....and thereafter when the changes happening are very large and when they become prominent and easily readable because of these changes the situation is out of our control and we sit on Hugh losses before we gain our senses about the real situation around us.....
Can you see the changes happening in your life on daily basis.....no you will not see changes happening at all on day to day basis ....but yes changes are happening every moment.... every day but they are so minuscule that we can not see those changes at all and neither can we experience those changes.....but when you compare the changes today with 10 years back the changes are massive....and in almost all the things you will see massive changes.....so what I am saying that we human beings are not very good in understanding and do not have the know how to read small changes happening around us....
So in stock market we don't have the capacity to read the small changes happening in Prices..... whether it is on the downside or on the upside.... and by the time we realize the small changes the prices are way up or way down....they come to our notice only when the jumps are like kangaroos...... and then it is too late....

Actually the operators in a StoCK take advantage of these bias which we have....

If they want to take the price of a StoCK from say 100 to 50..... Will they take the price down in linear manner say in 10 days.....no.....but they need to start selling from 100 uptill 50.... So they sell in zig zag fashion...they don't want to alert other investors to know that they want to sell and are selling....so from 100 they start selling and take it down to 96.... Then again they take it up to 99.... Now say these happens in 15 days....now again from 99 they sell and take the price to 93....then again they take the price to 97....these phase takes 20 days.....now again in  third phase they start selling from 97 and take the price to 90.....now the third phase takes around 25 days..... like wise phase 4 happens...then phase 5 happens and in 8 months time the price from 100 will go to 50 and in all these phases because small changes in prices are happening so you won't be able to sell.... and that is what they want....and finally out of frustration you will sell at 50 and the cycle will reverse and again he will start buying ..again to trap new set of fools....I mean investors.....

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Relationship between Value and Price

The most important relationship in Investment or for that matter in any financial assets is between value and price....Yes it is and if you leave any one or the other your financial success in no way guaranteed...both can to go together... hand in hand...and it is like a symbiosis kind of relationship...and is of immense benefit to achieve financial stability....
i will give you an example and it is my most favorite example which i tell to everyone whom i meet...

Imagine about the shirt or t shirt you are wearing right now...can you guess what is the price of that shirt or tshirt...
Lets say....the price of that shirt or tshirt is Rs. 2000/-...

Okay now in normal condition and if you think rationally for the same shirt or tshirt  will you pay say Rs. 10000/-...yes you heard it right...and what if some one comes and offers you to buy the same shirt and tshirt for Rs. 10000/-....now imagine your initial reaction...WWWhhattt...are you mad...are you gone insane...daaru ppee kkae aayaa hai...these is our immediate knee jerk reaction on hearing the 10000/- price for the same shirt ot tshirt....and you will say uulluu banaa raha hai....yes he is....right

now in the second scenario if the same person comes and offers you the same shirt and tshirt for Rs. 1100/-...what will you do....you will run very fast to grab the deal before he offers it to someone else...that left out feeling of missing to buy the same shirt or tshirt at 1100/- is very strong and you dont want to miss the opportunity to reward yourself by buying it for discounted price... and it is more wise to buy at Rs.1100/- because the actual value of the same shirt or tshirt is Rs.2000/-

But in stock market or for that matter any financial assets we do the opposite transaction.. i mean when the stock prices are going up we jump in to the band wagon and invest our hard earned money in to those outperforming stocks to make quick money in a short period of time and giving a pass to the valuation side of the picture... what i want to say in midst of the euphoric trend we concentrate totally on the Price of the stocks and forget about the valuation completely...at that buying price of the stock we forget to evaluate...what is the actual value of the company...and we blindly buy because of our greed to make quick short term money...yes as per the first example you are even buying at Rs.10000/- thinking that a bigger fool will come and buy from you at 12000/-...hahahaaaa

but dont curse yourself if you have done the same thing yourself....because it is in the human beings nature to act in such a stupid manner and cause harm to ourselves...and for that reason we cannot reach our goals of financial stability....

as per the second example... now the stock market momentum is downwards and the whole world is selling and the scenario becomes like the same shirt or tshirt whose value was Rs. 2000/- is now selling at Rs.1100/-....what happens in these scenario is you are also selling at Rs.1100/- and because all are selling the price of the stock goes down and as per low price you still get better Value at those discounted prices....the whole world is behaving irrationally and so bargain opportunities are there to grab...but no because we are in fear mood that the world economy will collapse we have to sell irrespective of Price and Value...we have to be the first one to sell before anyone can sell...

and the above saga keeps on repeating in every Cycle of boom and bust...and so only 5% of the smart people who are aware of these folly make lots of money and create wealth for themselves because they are so sure and they know that 95% fools who are active in the stock market will come and loss their hard earned money and indirectly create wealth for them...

Some Recent Examples....

                                            high price         current price

Ambuja Cement                    292                       197
UPL                                       902                       660
Federal Bank                         127                        80
Sun Pharma                          1200                      560

the above list is endless.....price is what you pay...value is what you get...if you pay higher price you get less value...and if you pay less price you get higher value...now it is on you on which side you want to be....ambuja cement and many other stocks were highly priced as per their actual Value and so now the price is regressing towards the actual Value and at one point the price and the actual value price will concide and will be same and that is the time you buy and buy even more if it goes below its intrinsic value or the actual value price...

But knowing the Value is the most important thing and you will have to do that hard work to know the Approximate Value of the company and for that matter you will have to read the balance sheet of the companies...

Monday, June 18, 2018

Midcaps and Smallcaps and Boiling Frog Syndrome

Somehow I feel.... Boiling Frog Syndrome is playing out in Midcaps and Smallcaps StoCks....

Query:  But they cannot die... This theory is not suitable here....

Is the answer I got from one of my followers....and my answer is as follows.....

The theory itself you have misunderstood.... you have to read the theory properly to understand.... the theory isn't about the frog dying or the midcaps and smallcaps stocks dying.... the theory is all about that small changes keep on happening and we human beings and animals adapt to those small changes without even realising whether those small changes are beneficial or harmful... So here what I want to elaborate is that small Corrections happening in Midcaps and Smallcaps doesn't allow us to get out of them....and they keep on going down and down even we realizing that our portfolio is making losses.... Because you always have that feeling back of your mind what if the Midcaps and Smallcaps again start to go up and outperform.... The best example is Penny StoCks you will find in every bodies portfolio....
We don't sell because we keep on adjusting ourselves continuosly and so we eventually adjust our price downwards as prices falls even though on paper we are making a loss.... and we give aashwaasaan to ourselves that one day when my buying price will come that day I will sell at no profit....no loss basis...and so by default you have married those stocks which are going down slowly slowly and so you are stuck with them and now there is no exit... and eventually you have by default become long term Investor....
And so you are stuck with Suzlon... Reliance power...JP associates.... Vakrangee....Manpassand..... Kingfisher airlines....Shree ashtavinayak.....and the list is never ending....

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Price And Value Relationship and the Psychology behind it...

Relationship between Value and price...

We human beings are prone to evaluate all things by price wise and we don't have the capacity and power to evaluate all things by its  Value ...we are not born to process Value..... naturally the first thing our brain processes is the price of all things and to us human beings the Value comes second....

Why is it so....

Because giving price to things is very easy and quick job....in our everyday life 99% of the times everyday our buying or selling things is done by Price wise manner only....and correspondingly we don't analyse and evaluate things we buy and sell in our everyday life....I mean it is not possible at all to analyse and evaluate and calculate the Value of all things you are buying or selling in every day life....So our brain is in auto pilot mode and we develop the habit to evaluate all things by Price wise manner....

And also because in obtaining the Value of things you have to gather data.... analyse the data...do calculation form those data.... and then obtain the Value of things which is a lengthy and difficult process....so our brain has to work and consume precious energy in doing such difficult analytical job....so it does not want to spend the precious energy in such jobs and save the same energy to do other jobs and perform our other day to day tasks...So our brain wants to take short cut and moves our attention to The auto pilot system of evaluating things by Price wise manner....and makes us run away from calculating the Value of things....

The reason most percentage of people did not like mathematics in school is because our brain did not want us to solve those analytical problems....

So in stock market we always say Reliance@1030.... Now it will go to @1150/- in few months....and in all these we forget what is the actual Value of Reliance and is it Value for money @1030....
If you read all the above articles I have posted only then you will all understand clearly what is my.... Formula Purchasing price all about... and how it helps to buy and sell a stock....

Saturday, June 16, 2018

June 2018: 9th Straight Interest Rate Hiked by Fed in USA

yes just few days back the federal reserve of usa hiked monetary rates for the 9th straight consecutive times... so will have to keep a close watch on the further developments in the stock market...also the FIIs are stright sellers from the last many days...they are nselling emerging markets and buying in the USA markets...also the bond rates are around 3% on 10 year gsec in USA...so investing in bonds is also becoming attractive for the long term basis in USA...

Kaveri seeds , any views

Kaveri seeds , any views

Some one asked me about Kaveri seeds....

I don't study companies which I do not understand....I want to invest in companies which I understand and which falls within my fundamental parameters... I follow only around 55/60 companies and I invest in them as and when opportunities arise....rest I am a human being and so do not possess the ability to study so many companies.....

Psychology It doesn't permit me to study so many companies.... And be master in all of them...
My first principal of investing is to first safe guard my principal investment and then to think about the returns on my investment....
For that even if I am not outperforming the stock markets in bull market and earning just above average returns I am happy but then in the bear market my downfall is protected while other investors portfolio are slaughtered and butchered and their portfolios are all bleeding.... and they have no where to escape....

Friday, June 15, 2018

Sir should I buy lupin at the current price or wait?

Above heading is the question asked to me when Pharma StoCks were already up by 25% from their recent lifetime low prices.....my answer is as follows....

Don't run after pharma StoCks or for that matter any other StoCks... let them come to you.....few days back most of the Pharma StoCks had come to you screaming... requesting and ordering you please buy andainvest in us as we were offering you all very good value for your money at those lifetime low prices and also because no one was interested in purchasing us and we all Pharma StoCks were available at very cheap discounted prices... we thought that from our lifetime low prices we can give you decent long term returns and you can all make good amount of money if you believed and keep faith in us... Why was it so because We all Pharma StoCks were slaughtered and butchered relentlessly everyday as if we will all close down tomorrow and as if there is no future left for us at all... And so because of the fear you all people had you collectively started to sell all of us and in turn because of your foolish behaviour we all became very attractive to invest for long term basis at those lifetime low prices and so a golden opportunity to invest in us at such dirt cheap discounted prices was thrown towards you to grab it.... also we even questioned ourselves why are the investors behaving irrationally and selling us continously and because of their weird behaviour decision and action we all found it very shocking and were surprised how is it possible that we all pharma StoCks are available at such discounted prices as compared to our value...but before we could get the answer to our questions we appreciated by almost 25% and now the bus to invest in us at lifetime low prices has been missed and a golden chance to invest few days back have vanished... But don't you investors find it surprising that when our prices have gone up by 25% from our lifetime lows all of you again want to invest in us....so right now we will request you to stay put for some time and let us again give you one more chance and opportunities to invest in us at the recently made lifetime low prices or still even lower pices from the recently made low prices....but we pharma sector are not sure when and at what prices we will most likely make a  lifetime bottom....but I still advice you to keep your cool be calm and wait patiently and let us all come to you....if we once again feel like.....adding to the above point I once again advice you that the next time I again give you such superb opportunity don't be afraid of our Pharma sector to invest in staggered manner because it might take few years for us to bounce back but we will definitely come back with Vengeance and will give you very good IRR...

The above is not a recommendation to Buy or Sell.... and is only my personal opinion and views....and to draw the readers attention to invest when the prices of StoCks are low....and invest in good debt free and superbly managed monopolistic companies....

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

June 2018: Boredom is best way of Investing style

Boredom in investing is the biggest gift and best risk reward ratio a long term investor can ask for
If one can in investing live the life of boredom half his job is done....

Monday, June 11, 2018

June 2018: Adapt Stealth nature and Hunt Like a Predator....

Today I was speaking with someone and told him if you want to make it big in stock market stay outside the periphery and patiently observe what is happening and what the market is doing....is the market giving you an opportunity to make money....or is the market going to take away your hard earned money.....
 The day you become a observer in stock market rather than a participant..... will be the day you will attain NIRVANA....in stock market....
 So don't become a participant....wait patiently.... become a observer..... and at the right moment STRIKE....
 Adapt stealth nature and character.....

Always remember how animals Hunt their Prey....they will wait outside the periphery of the prey.... then they will observe the prey....they will wait patiently for the prey to come in their range of attack.... and once they come to them in their Range they Attack and Kill....so in stock market instead of you running after the market opportunities....wait patiently and let the market provide you will Golden opportunities

Also always remember...

The first thing is that markets move in cycles. The first cycle was high growth high quality. Now every bull market is the same, it starts with high growth, high quality then comes to high growth lower on quality and the third phase is just no growth no quality. We are now on the second stage of the cycle. So high growth and low quality will outperform everything else..

👍👌... StoCK market is the easiest place where you can make Crores.... because 95% of the people come to loose in the stock market....and the rest 5% are the people who make wealth out of these 95% losers....

 Previously I was in the 95%....now slowly slowly coming in the 5% group.... hopefully....

 Always follow the Leader in any Field...how Warren buffet has made money in stock market....if one studies his rules.... principles.... ideology....he will find it very easy to invest in stock market...the process is very simple but difficult to stick to it....

Sunday, June 10, 2018

JUNE 2018: Commercial Real Estate the next big thing....

Commercial real estate presently is a very good example of Fear basis investing..... people are scared to invest in commercial real estate.... from 2007 the commercial real estate market has gone no where.... and the time has come that in coming few years they will and should give very good returns in the long term.... People are under invested in commercial real estate and it is going to be the next big thing.... hopefully I am not proved wrong....but waiting game and patience will be the key....

JUNE 2018: SALE SALE MONSOON SALE

SALE SALE MONSOON SALE !!!!!

SUN PHARMA....64%....
LUPIN....66%....
DRREDDY....57%....

SO HOW MUCH MORE SALE ONE NEEDS FROM TOP LIFE TIME HIGH PRICE....

OFFER PRICE BY MARKET IS VALID TILL STOCKS PRICE LAST....

Perfect example of Fear Neurological Syndrome....Lots of fear chemicals such as Glutamate... Cortisal....Adrenaline is immediately released by the retail investors as soon as they listen to the word PHARMA SECTOR...YES...Immediately is what i said...knowingly or unknowingly to the market participants...they will not even realize that their brain is working overtime to take them away from danger even if the market offers them golden opportunity to buy at dirt cheap valuations and to make tons of money on long term basis...why ??...i will tell you the reason...as we human beings are prone to evaluate things on Price basis and not on Value basis...

Suppose you have seen the price of Sun Pharma @450/--Did you buy at that price...NO...It will immediately come to your mind it can go down to @200/-...Yes...Am i right or wrong...you tell me...what stops you to invest in sun pharma @450/-..Naturally your Insula and Amygdala the fear part of the barin have stopped you from venturing in to unknown waters...and over here unknown waters is how much the stock price of sun Pharma can go down...Yes you are right and so is your Fear Brain...But then what about the valuations of Sun Pharma....because we human beings dont have capacity to exactly know the Value of things and so we cannot evaluate in VALUE terms...But we have a natural instinct to put a price on each and everything...So we face these difficult problem in investing and missing out on golden opportunities thrown towards us by the stock market...because we think how far the price can go down rather then applying rational thinking ...Now at the current price of @450.....is it VALUE for money....Value is thrown in the DUSTBIN and Price takes the centre stage...But that is what smart investors want of you....so they can make money and you all can loose money....

So when there is sale in the stock market grab that opportunity to invest for long term basis in good fundamental strong companies with very good management who thinks about the good of minority shareholders and also company having negligible DEBTS...

A very good example of my article is the IPL matches... Have you ever noticed the spectators in the stadium..... when their team is winning and their favourite team players are hitting 6s and 4s.... there is excitement... happiness....joy...estacy type feeling.... and collectively the whole stadium is enjoying the thrilling moments.....so dopamine chemical is playing it's role and magnifying the estascy feeling of all the spectators in the stadium.... And the moment 3 to 4 thereafter falls in quick succession the whole stadium is silent..... estascy gives way to sadness....sorrow....now immediately the insula and amygdala gets activated and fear chemical are released.... whether my favourite team will recover and win from such a precarious situation....

And above all if you are betting same some few lakhs of rupees on your favourite team....How would you be feeling after falling of wickets of your favourite team in quick succession....

Please note the above article has no clinical support and is the combination of many articles i have read and from studies by PhD Doctors on the subject...and it is my personnel opinion and no way a recommendation to buy or sell...

Saturday, June 9, 2018

JUNE 2018: Neurological Assessment of current correction

Yes....it just click my mind to write an article about these present on going correction on the neurological basis...Please note what am I going to write henceforth has no clinical support and it is just an assessment of what I have studied and  articles I read on the subject....

Jan 2018:

Wow....my Midcap and Smallcap portfolio is up by 25%...See I am very smart and I can make profit in market as and when I feel....I am feeling on top of the world...no one can defeat me....my stock calls are 100% correct....there is no chance that my decisions can go wrong about any stocks recommendations I give....and the story goes on....I am a super investor....I have conquered the stock market and now I know everything about stock market....lastly I want to start Giving Tips to everyone now....I know everything....

Yes your Neurons are firing intensely and limitless at these current situation....the euphoria you are experiencing is unmatchable by any other pleasures available in the world....Yes...you read it right...

I am talking about the feel good happy chemical dopamine....the chemical responsible for all the pleasure a human being and animals are experiencing....and these dopamine chemicals are so powerful and strong that excess requirements of these chemicals leads to addiction and eventually will lead to habits....Now you must be guessing what it has to do with Stock market and the euphoria Stage....Yes...confused....but one should never forget that we are made of biochemical cells.....and all the actions....thinking decision making is a result of chemical process going on in our brain....when we think or decide to do any action our brain ozz out chemicals and electrical current and we complete the task....
and move on to the other task and it goes on and on....second by second....
So once we start making money in trading and speculation....just before euphoric stage....we become happy and start believing in ourselves and we think we are smart....such type of feel good.... happy feeling we experience because we make continuous profit in trading and Speculation and so the nucleus accumbens starts to release dopamine chemicals.....and more profit means more dopamine feels good chemicals are released....now to make profit continuously it will develop in to Addiction and more and more you trade and speculate in stock market that hit of pleasure excitement what you get continuously develops in to Habit.... and so you trade and speculate more and more to get that shot of excitement....thrill....joy.... and so the Emotions are running very high and Trading and Speculation gives you immense pleasure which not even a short of cocaine or alcohol or cigarettes can give you....YES YOU have climb the mount Everest of Greed and Addiction....and within all these euphoria the stock market reaches the top and so now from here onwards there is only one way To go..... down.....Freefall......End of dreams to make it big in stock market....Lost the opportunity to sell when I had the chance....and we fall and enter.....

June 2018.....

Right now the Insula and Amygdala part of the human brain the Fear Brain.... of the market participants must be firing intensely...yes why not.... the midcap and Smallcap portfolios of retail investors have gone down by 25% to 35%....So today Even on hearing the name of Midcap and Smallcap i.e. in the present scenario the Amygdala will immediately become active and Neurotransmitters such as Glutamate...Cotisol...Adrenaline are released immediately and will make us to go into the freeze mode....that is the stage of taking no action and maintaining the status quo....or to take action like Fight or Flight...We are now scared and afraid and in fearful stage....and now we want to preserve our money by not investing in the stock market at least for some time... Yes am I right....or wrong....so on these part of the brain i will right the article when it has folded completely.....wait patiently and remind me from time to time if just in case I forget....Pharmaceutical Sector is in these fear stage and Insula and the Amygdala both are firing intensely and telling us to not invest in the sector and stay miles away from it....so once you experience full pain anguish fear and are afraid completely and fully and experience uncertainty and certain death by investing in pharmaceutical sector will the tide turn for good....and days will become bright from darkness and there will be sunshine all around and everywhere....and opportunities to make tons of money will appear.....

Conclusion:

Whenever there is euphoria.... collectively the nucleus accumbens  fires intensely which releases the feel good happy neurotransmitters such as Dopamine...Ephedrine... in all the market participants and the nuclues accumbens fire intensely and continously for weeks.... months....years together....And so a speculative bubble is created....
And same way in downtrend how the insula and amygdala gets collectively activated and fires continously telling us to avoaid possible danger and in stock market in the form of a LOSS and so we all together go in fear mode and missed the opportunity to buy stocks at dirt cheap valuation... Because the fear chemicals such as the Glutamate...Cortisol....Adrenaline are released continously in downtrend so our brain predicts there is danger and a possibility of a LOSS...and so we dont grab the opportunity to buy stcoks at discount and when MR MARKET is offering us Stocks at a 50% SALE value....


One who is winning is enjoying the rollercoaster ride Nuclues Accumbens.....like NBFC...even if valuation are high.....one who is losing is in constant fear...INSULA...Amygadala....Pharma....fear of investing even when valuation is low and favourable risk Reward ratio.....


JUNE2018: Market Cycles

The first thing is that markets move in cycles. The first cycle was high growth high quality. Now every bull market is the same, it starts with high growth, high quality then comes to high growth lower on quality and the third phase is just no growth no quality. We are now on the second stage of the cycle. So high growth and low quality will outperform everything else....

Yes.....in stock market there is nothing like sure thing....no one knows the bottom....but you have to be eventually ready for the worst case scenario....

Also does it make more sense to average at the life time bottom price or average at the life time Top price and meet with hugh losses....Suppose a good fundamental strong company after making a life time high price @1200/- is now available @450/-.... now suppose you buy@ 450....it goes down to say 200/-....and you purchase at 200/- also then your average comes to @325..... Then your future ROR on 325/- will be very good percentage wise in long term and if luck is in your favour then it can prove to be a multibagger investment..

JUNE 2018: Most important lesson in Investing and in Business

Today I was speaking with someone and told him if you want to make it big in stock market stay outside the periphery and patiently observe what is happening and what the market is doing....is the market giving you an opportunity to make money....or is the market going to take away your hard earned money.....
 The day you become a observer in stock market rather than a participant..... will be the day you will attain NIRVANA....in stock market....
 So don't become a participant....wait patiently.... become a observer..... and at the right moment STRIKE....
 Adapt stealth nature and character.....
 Always remember how animals Hunt their Prey....they will wait outside the periphery of the prey.... then they will observe the prey....they will wait patiently for the prey to come in their range of attack.... and once they come to them in their Range they Attack and Kill....so in stock market instead of you running after the market opportunities....wait patiently and let the market provide you will Golden opportunities....

The same goes for business also...let opportunities come to you rather then you running after the opportunities...and once life offers you the opportunities dont sit on it...run as much fast as you can to grab those business opportunities....but before that keep on working hard on the chosen path and be passionate about what you are doing and the drive to become successful...and wait patiently on that life path to throw you golden opportunities...

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

May 2018:...Monetary Policy: Repo and Reverse Repo Rate hiked @25bps points after 4 years....

Jun 06, 02:55 PM (IST)

Highlights from the policy outcome
Repo rate hiked by 25 bps to 6.25 percent
Reverse repo rate hiked by 25 bps to 6 percent 
The Monetary Policy Committee has maintained its neutral stance 
GDP forecast retained at 7.4% for FY19
April-September GDP growth projected at 7.5-7.6 percent 
October-March GDP growth projected at 7.3-7.4 percent
April-September CPI likely in 4.8-4.9% range including rent allowance impact       
October-March CPI likely around 4.7% including home rent allowance impact     

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Jan 2018 correction...Writing on the Wall was visible but we all missed reading it....

Yes...we all missed the bus to sell in Jan 2018 when the euphoria was high...clear signals of market euphoria were easily visible when one of my friend who was investing in stocks previously would invest in only those stocks which only i suggested or recommended...and we were investing in only fundamental stocks with good and clear visibility...but these last few months i stopped giving him new ideas to invest because i did not like the way stock market was galloping ahead and the market had nothing to offer and also because i found there was greed everywhere...So from good strong fundamental companies he started investing in Penny stocks FOR trading purpose from November 2017 onwards so that he could make quick bucks...but finally the market got better off him...he invested in companies like... SUZLON .... ONMOBILE...MERCATOR...FOR TRADING PURPOSE but eventually in the last week of May 2018 after i spoke with him he sold all his penny stocks...yes all the above mentioned penny stocks he had to sell for a loss and they where down by almost 20% to 30% at least....So the writing on the wall was clearly visible and easily readable and specially for me it was clearly visible but even i missed the bus to some extent...also i did not expect the individual stocks to correct so much from there recent highs even though the froth was clearly visible... so now we all have no option but to wait patiently and see what the markets does next...also the FIIs were and are still selling continously from the last 6 months....but one good thing i have learned and observed is...a investor can understand the market very easily and the markets can prove to be beneficial to him only if he is MILES away from the noises created by the market....and especially from greed....so one has to always stay alert and have to be smart enough to recognize such situations and grab such Chances to make profit...
The current correction which started in Jan 2018 should last till August/September 2018 and thereafter resume its northwards trajectory.to new highs....is my prediction...

So happy investing for long term basis...and the structural bull market is still intact...the above article is my personal opinion only....and not a suggestion or a recommendation to anybody....