Sunday, January 29, 2023

Historical Data of Total Market Cap over GDP in India

 

Key information about India Market Capitalization: % of GDP

  • India Market Capitalization accounted for 103.4 % of its Nominal GDP in Dec 2022, compared with a percentage of 112.4 % in the previous year
  • India Market Capitalization: % Nominal GDP is updated yearly, available from Dec 1993 to Dec 2022
  • The data reached an all-time high of 146.4 % in Dec 2007 and a record low of 23.0 % in Dec 2001


Original and Modified Historical Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP (%)

The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for India is 86.86%. The recent 10 year high was 119.85%; the recent 10 low was 58.11%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the recent 10 years mean of 88.58% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is %.

Based on the modified version, the current TMC / (GDP + Total Assets of Central Bank) Ratio for India is 77.64%. The recent 10 year high was 101.92%; the recent 10 low was 51.59%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the recent 10 years mean of 79.06% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is %.

This is the detailed historical chart of the original TMC / GDP ratio and modified TMC / (GDP + Total Assets of Central Bank) ratio.


Based on these historical valuations, we have divided market valuation into five zones:

Ratio = Total Market Cap / GDPValuation
Ratio ≤ 62%Significantly Undervalued
62% < Ratio ≤ 80%Modestly Undervalued
80% < Ratio ≤ 97%Fair Valued
97% < Ratio ≤ 115%Modestly Overvalued
Ratio > 115%Significantly Overvalued
Where are we today (2023-01-30)?Ratio = 86.86%Fair valued

Based on these modified historical valuations, we have divided market valuation into five zones:

Ratio = Total Market Cap / (GDP + Total Assets of Central Bank)Valuation
Ratio ≤ 55%Significantly Undervalued
55% < Ratio ≤ 71%Modestly Undervalued
71% < Ratio ≤ 87%Fair Valued
87% < Ratio ≤ 103%Modestly Overvalued
Ratio > 103%Significantly Overvalued
Where are we today (2023-01-30)?Ratio = 77.64%Fair valued


The Nifty is trading at a 12-month forward RoE (Return on Equity) of 15.6 per cent, above its long-term average, Motilal Oswal said in its report. 

                                    

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