Monday, July 31, 2017

Dubious Calls and Messages...

What the hell....from the last two months i have been receiving phone calls from assholes whether i am investing or trading in stock market....and everyday i get automatic messages every day  on my mobile to buy Penny stocks...
One more sign to show people have gone berserk and crazy in the short term...and means that the current rally has to correct in the next few weeks...

HEROMOTO CORP a good buy at current levels....

i think that heromoto corp has a little upside left and can go to levels of 4200 in the short period...in next 4 weeks most probably...presently it is at 3600 and in correction phase after touching 3880....the worst it can go down is uptill 3475....but 4200 is for sure is my view....

Note: the above is no recommendation to purchase HEROMOTO CORP and i hold my personnel views and reserved to go wrong in my prediction as it is a game of 50% chance...please consult and purchase stocks as per the advice of your financial advisor....

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Debt Corelation with Stocks

When investors find Debt safe and invest more in debt Instruments...Relatively Equities are cheaper...
When investors find Stocks safe and invest more in Equity Instruments...Relatively the Debts are cheaper...

Rate Cut Probability: today the rate cut probability have increased as the demand for the corporate  loans is almost negligible but the demand for Retail loan is very good but it is hardly as compared to the Corporate loans... So there is hardly any Capex Cycle... Today the Corporates are not borrowing and are Deleveraging instead of Leveraging...so this cycle of Delevearging has to get completed and thereafter only the Capex cycle will start... Presently there is no Demand for Money... So if there is no Demand for Money then the Interest Rates have to go down which i am propagandizing from the last one year that once the G sec 10 years yield rates has to go below 5:50% in the coming next 10 months for the Demand for Money to pick up...which presently is 6:43%....
Demand for Money today is at record LOw and will be so for the coming next 8 to 12 months....
The above are my Personnel Views and no ways a recommendation....

As per Investors....
Between 2008 to 2014 Debt was a safe Asset Class...and Equity was a bad asset class
between 2014 and 2017(till date) Debt is a bad asset class and Equity is a safe asset class...

But for contrarian investing it is vice versa....

2013 Disbelief  Phase (Informed fundamental Investors) INNOVATOR...First Phase
2017 Optimism Phase (Friends/Relatives) IMMITATOR...Second Phase
2021/22 Euphoria (Shoe polish/Barber/rickshaw) IDIOTS...Third Phase

Quality Stock Rally lasted for 8 years from 2007 to 2015....PE between 40 to 60
Page Industries...
Cummins....
Bosch....

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

U.S. mortgage market crisis....

What did we see in the U.S. mortgage market as home prices rose and interest rates declined? First, low teaser rates. Then higher loan-to-value ratios. Then 100% financing. Then low-amortization loans. Then no-amortization loans. Then loans requiring no documentation of employment or credit history. These things made it possible for more buyers to stretch for more expensive homes, but at the same time they made mortgages riskier for lenders. And these developments took place when home prices were at sky-high and interest rates were at multi-generation lows. In the end, buyers took out the biggest mortgage possible given their incomes and prevailing interest rates. Such mortgages would land them in the houses of their dreams . . . and leave them there for as long as conditions didn’t deteriorate, which they invariably do.

When credit markets are tight and providers of capital are reticent, money can be hard to come by. Companies’ demand for financing can exceed the supply, putting negotiating power in the hands of the lenders. Thus lenders can insist on – and obtain – strict covenants, and bonds issued in such an environment are likely to be relatively safe. But when usually disciplined bond buyers have to compete against others who aren’t acting in a disciplined fashion, their ability to insist on covenant protection goes out the window. In economics, Gresham’s Law says “bad money drives out good.” That’s why, when paper money joined gold as legal tender, gold was put in the strongbox rather than spent, and only paper money circulated. The same thing happens in the investing world: bad investors drive out good. When undisciplined investors are out there with lots of money to get rid of, there’s less scope for disciplined investors to insist on strong covenants. That’s why the level of covenant protection is a good barometer of the market climate.

Eventually, one would think, many of the forestalled defaults will demonstrate their inevitability, with the companies falling from more highly leveraged heights. And certainly the capital markets’ willingness to finance less-than-deserving companies will lead ultimately to a higher level of corporate distress. Thus, everything else being equal, the bigger the boom – the greater the excesses of the capital markets in the upward direction – the greater the bust. Timing and extent are never predictable, but the occurrence of cycles is the closest thing I know to inevitable. And usually, the air goes out of the balloon a lot faster than it goes in.

It’s folly to think we know in advance just what it is that will cause the market pendulum to stop swinging in one direction and start in the other, but it’s even greater folly to think that nothing of that nature will happen. That’s my twist on one of my favorite quotes, from behaviorist Amos Tversky: It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly whats going on..

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. Over the last few years, some people went around saying, “We don’t know what bad thing will happen, but something will,” and others said, “We’re confident that nothing bad will happen.” Now, as is often the case, unassuming caution seems to be winning out over cocksure optimism. 

Saturday, July 22, 2017

My Reason to Buy NTPC presently....

Psychological.... Today Power Sector is out o f Favour....no one talks about it....power sector was darling of 2008 bull market....and today it is the neglected kid because of the interference from the respective state governments and the central government...

The good thing recently has happened is all the receivables by the power generating companies have been offset because of UDAY policy...ie the state government and the central government will pay all the dues of the respective power generating companies...also now the companies will have their own say...but one drawback these companies have is their Rate of return is pecked at a fixed rate of 15%...so it is finite and they can increase their rates as per inflation...also the revenues can increase only because of new generation of electric power by setting new plants....

Technically....NTPC is coming out of a long lull of 8 years from the high it made in 2008....8 years is too much for any sector to pass through a bear phase...it does not mean that the stock will shoot up overnight but the Risk Reward ratio is in favour of long term investing and too add the stock in ones portfolio....

My buying price for NTPC is between....164 to 168.... and in no way it is a recommendation to purchase the stock...the views expressed above are my personnel views and please consult your financial advisor before purchasing any stocks....

Do you remember the game Bid-a-Note from the TV show “Name that Tune”? Contestant x said, “I can name that tune in six notes.” Then contestant y said, “I can name that tune in five notes.” Then contestant x said, “I can name that tune in four notes.” The contestant who eventually got the chance to guess the name of the tune was the one who was willing to accept the riskiest proposition – to try on the basis of the least information.

When To Sell....

WHEN TO SELL...it is the most difficult question asked by LAKHS OF investors TILL DATE AND NO ONE HAS found THE correct ANSWER....TRUE...but the answer is hidden somewhere and we need to find out...

YES...taxidrivers...your folks/nephews/relatives....your barber....your rakdiwalas....START PURCHASING STOCKS...THE IDIOT LOT....LAST LOT...it is when people are over confident and there is no other way FOR the stock market TO go... but up....it is when everybody agrees that new era has come...and THEY ALL COLLECTIVELY START givING a new definition to the current ONGOING bull trend....rate of return for the next 5 years from present....22% cagr FOR SURE.... AND IT WILL GO ON ENDLESSLY.....WHEN EVERYBODY WITHOUT OPPOSING AGREES ON SOMETHING THATS WHEN YOU HAVE GOT A PROBLEM....LONG MARKET because BOOM IS HERE TO STAY...ECONOMIC GROWTH IS BEST THAN IT WAS IN A LONG TIME....
At the top of the Euphoric economy the competition to put out money and the usual late-stage belief that “it’s different this time.” Lenders and investors invariably depart from time-honored disciplines when cycles move to extremes, out of a belief that current conditions are different from those that prevailed in the past, when those disciplines were appropriate. And just as invariably, they’re shown that cycles repeat and nothing really changes.

THE ABOVE REASONS ARE MORE THEN ENOUGH TO GIVE YOU A GUT FEELING WITHIN  YOUR STOMACH THAT THE STOCK MARKETS ARE OVERPRICED AND ITS TIME TO GET OUT OF IT...

BUT WAIT EVEN AFTER KNOWING THE ABOVE REASONS THOROUGHLY AND EXPERIENCING ALL OF THEM AT THE TOP OF THE MARKET FORMATION... WILL YOU BE ABLE TO GET OUT OF THE MARKET...

HAHAHAA...ABSOLUTELY NOT...WHY???....THE REASON IS PSYCHOLOGY.....IT PLAYS A HAVOC ON OUR FRAGILE MIND AND MONEY IS THE BIGGEST ROOT CAUSE OF THAT PROBLEM...WHICH IN OTHER WORDS CAN ALSO BE DESCRIBE AS ""GREED"" ...YES GREED IS WHAT WILL NOT ALLOW US TO SELL AT THE TOP OF THE MARKET EVEN AFTER RECOGNIZING THE SEVERITY OF THE BULL TREND AND WHEN THE PROBABILITY OF THE STOCK MARKET GOING DOWN FROM THE TOP ARE 97/3....BUT STILL THE GREED FOR THE EXTRA 3% WILL SEE TO IT THAT WE LOSE ALL THAT WE HAD EARNED IN THE LAST 5 YEARS...

SO TO SAY IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTROL OUR EMOTIONS WHEN WE ARE IN THE BULL MARKET...MY SUGGESTION IS TO BUY IN GOOD FUNDAMENTAL BUSINESSES AND WHEN THERE IS BLOOD ON THE STREET....AND FEAR IS THE DOMINANT FACTOR....TODAY LITTLE FEAR IS THERE BUT NOT A DOMINANT FACTOR...ACTUALLY WE HAVE COME OUT OF THE DOMINANT FEAR FACTOR AND ENTERED THE OPTIMISM PHASE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO EUPHORIC STAGE....

HAPPY  LONG TERM INVESTING.....

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Nifty Target for July/August2017....and then Correction

July/August....10350
therafter CorrECTIon BETweeN....9300....9050....

but we are in bull trend......

nifty correction targets are my personnel views and no recommendations...

Monday, July 17, 2017

The Problem with Rewarding Individual Performers.....

In 1968, The Ohio State Buckeyes football team started one of the most cherished traditions in American sports. According to team legend, a member of the coaching staff proposed an idea to motivate the players. After each game, the coaches would reward the best players with small stickers resembling buckeye leaves to place on their helmets. The staff reasoned that rewarding stellar individual performances would provide the right incentive to excel. The Buckeyes won the national championship that year, and football teams around the country have copied the tradition of rewarding individual excellence.
But by 2001, the once-dominant Buckeyes had slipped into mediocrity. When Jim Tressel was hired to coach the team, he completely revamped how players earned a buckeye. Instead of rewarding a player for scoring a touchdown, for instance, every player on the offensive unit would get a sticker if the team scored more than 24 points. And the coaching staff gave every player on the team a sticker after each win. Favoring teamwork over individual performance paid off almost immediately—the team not only won a national championship the following year, but the Buckeyes have been one of the most successful teams in the country ever since and are a threat to win the National Championship again this year.
Although leaders are concerned with collective success, most organizations—from sports teams to universities to global companies—still focus on rewarding individual performance. The majority of Fortune 500 companies reward the most productive individuals, not the most effective groups or indispensable group members. We believe that leaders at these organizations are overlooking something fundamental about human nature—our tribalism.
Human beings evolved in groups, and most of us still work in groups every day. Our affinity for groups is wired deeply into our basic biology. Indeed, humans are unique among primates in that we readily cooperate with in-group members–even if they are completely unknown to us. This is why sports fans can show up to a stadium and immediately share common purpose with 100,000 complete strangers. Even more striking, research in our labs has found that the simple act of joining a group can produce a dramatic influence on brain function and behavior. At the mere flip of a coin, people readily befriend and place their trust in fellow in-group members. And our research has found that creating mixed-race groups can override implicit racial bias. Group identification is one ingredient that can bring strangers together.
Given that group membership is such a deeply rooted part of human nature and organizational success, a central element of leadership is the management of group identities. In short, great leaders are “entrepreneurs of identity.” They embrace our tribal nature and seek to shape the identity of their fellow group members. This social relationship between leaders and followers is at the heart of transformational leadership.
When a person starts to identify with a group, it triggers a fundamental shift in their goals. Events and decisions that were once evaluated with reference to oneself (“what’s in it for me?”) are now evaluated in reference to the group (“what does this mean for us?”). In fact, research shows that even otherwise selfish individuals often become cooperative—and even altruistic—when they identify with a group. Once their self becomes fused with the group, they are motivated to pursue what they understand to be the goals of the group.
Group identity can explain a range of remarkable behaviors, ranging from putting in long hours at work to making the ultimate sacrifice for one’s country. Many experiments have now shown that members will act to benefit to their groups, even when doing so exacts a personal cost. One reason is because we share in the success and rewards of our in-group members—we bask in their reflected glory and feel pleasure when they receive a reward. As such, the key to leading groups is fostering an environment in which individual group members deeply identify with the team.
To cultivate a strong group identity, leaders can take the following steps: (1) ensure the group satisfies basic the psychological needs of individual members, (2) generates super-ordinate goals, (3) rewards individual contributions to the group, and (4) values dissent.
  1. Focus on employees’ social needs. Organizations traditionally use financial rewards to motivate employees, but great leaders also fulfill the social needs of their employees. Compelling groups satisfy one or more fundamental human needs, including the need to belongobtain statusfeel distinctive, and maintain certainty or control. By balancing individuals’ need to belong with their desire to stand out, a leader can build a sense of “optimal distinctiveness” among group members. Leaders seeking to increase members’ group identification need to first consider the basic social needs of their members and then determine how the group might do a better job fulfilling them.
  2. Set superordinate goals. Recent neuroscience studies suggest that cooperation is inherently rewarding. But many people will only cooperate with fellow in-group members. In many organizations, the loyalty of employees lies with their department or project team, rather than the whole organization. While internal divisions can be useful at times—a bit of healthy competition between departments can drive people to work harder–employees can lose sight of organizational goals or may even sabotage other departments. Visionary leaders communicate the superordinate goals of the organization and explain how all the divisions, departments, and project teams are necessary for achieving these goals.
  3. Reward both collective and individual effort. Leaders need to reward behavior that advances the goals of the organization, rather than the individual. Effective leaders provide bonuses, recognition, raises, flexibility, and opportunities, based on the entire team’s performance. To avoid free-riding (when team members shirk their personal responsibility), individual rewards should also be given to individuals who make important contributions to the team’s success. This rewards indispensable team members—the unsung heroes who work late, cover for colleagues, and enhance the success of the group. Combining individual and collective rewards can promote stronger group identity and ensure that individual members are encouraged and motivated (not only financial, but also socially) to pursue the team’s goals and help the team succeed.
Group cohesion can also be a weakness—suppressing dissent and creativity, and creating mindless conformity. How can leaders capitalize on the benefits of group cohesion while avoiding its drawbacks?
  1. Avoid the downsides of conformity by valuing dissent. Many people assume that dissenters are trying to damage the group. But our research suggests that committed group members are the ones who are most likely to speak up when things are going badly for the group because they care deeply about group success. Thus, constructive dissent needs to be explicitly valued in organizations to avoid groupthink and bad decision-making. Leaders need to make it easy for group members to speak out against bad ideas. For instance, leaders can designate certain group members to act as devil’s advocate to ensure the group reaches the best possible decision. To create a culture where constructive feedback and innovation flourishes, leaders should also encourage their employees to pursue organizational goalsrather than simply follow organizational norms.
The bottom line is that leaders need to understand and harness the tribal psychology that is deeply imprinted onto the human brain. The ease with which people categorize the social world into groups speaks to our nature, and provides a powerful potential tool for leaders. Our capacity to identify with groups provides the foundations for cooperation with others—even complete strangers. Thus, great leaders must become entrepreneurs of identity.

Storytelling That Moves People.....

Persuasion is the centerpiece of business activity. Customers must be convinced to buy your company’s products or services, employees and colleagues to go along with a new strategic plan or reorganization, investors to buy (or not to sell) your stock, and partners to sign the next deal. But despite the critical importance of persuasion, most executives struggle to communicate, let alone inspire. Too often, they get lost in the accoutrements of companyspeak: PowerPoint slides, dry memos, and hyperbolic missives from the corporate communications department. Even the most carefully researched and considered efforts are routinely greeted with cynicism, lassitude, or outright dismissal.
Why is persuasion so difficult, and what can you do to set people on fire? In search of answers to those questions, HBR senior editor Bronwyn Fryer paid a visit to Robert McKee, the world’s best-known and most respected screenwriting lecturer, at his home in Los Angeles. An award-winning writer and director, McKee moved to California after studying for his Ph.D. in cinema arts at the University of Michigan. He then taught at the University of Southern California’s School of Cinema and Television before forming his own company, Two-Arts, to take his lectures on the art of storytelling worldwide to an audience of writers, directors, producers, actors, and entertainment executives.
McKee’s students have written, directed, and produced hundreds of hit films, including Forrest Gump, Erin Brockovich, The Color Purple, Gandhi, Monty Python and the Holy Grail, Sleepless in Seattle, Toy Story, and Nixon. They have won 18 Academy Awards, 109 Emmy Awards, 19 Writers Guild Awards, and 16 Directors Guild of America Awards. Emmy Award winner Brian Cox portrays McKee in the 2002 film Adaptation, which follows the life of a screenwriter trying to adapt the book The Orchid Thief. McKee also serves as a project consultant to film and television production companies such as Disney, Pixar, and Paramount as well as major corporations, including Microsoft, which regularly send their entire creative staffs to his lectures.
McKee believes that executives can engage listeners on a whole new level if they toss their PowerPoint slides and learn to tell good stories instead. In his best-selling book Story: Substance, Structure, Style, and the Principles of Screenwriting, published in 1997 by Harper-Collins, McKee argues that stories “fulfill a profound human need to grasp the patterns of living—not merely as an intellectual exercise, but within a very personal, emotional experience.” What follows is an edited and abridged transcript of McKee’s conversation with HBR.
Why should a CEO or a manager pay attention to a screenwriter?
A big part of a CEO’s job is to motivate people to reach certain goals. To do that, he or she must engage their emotions, and the key to their hearts is story. There are two ways to persuade people. The first is by using conventional rhetoric, which is what most executives are trained in. It’s an intellectual process, and in the business world it usually consists of a PowerPoint slide presentation in which you say, “Here is our company’s biggest challenge, and here is what we need to do to prosper.” And you build your case by giving statistics and facts and quotes from authorities. But there are two problems with rhetoric. First, the people you’re talking to have their own set of authorities, statistics, and experiences. While you’re trying to persuade them, they are arguing with you in their heads. Second, if you do succeed in persuading them, you’ve done so only on an intellectual basis. That’s not good enough, because people are not inspired to act by reason alone.
The other way to persuade people—and ultimately a much more powerful way—is by uniting an idea with an emotion. The best way to do that is by telling a compelling story. In a story, you not only weave a lot of information into the telling but you also arouse your listener’s emotions and energy. Persuading with a story is hard. Any intelligent person can sit down and make lists. It takes rationality but little creativity to design an argument using conventional rhetoric. But it demands vivid insight and storytelling skill to present an idea that packs enough emotional power to be memorable. If you can harness imagination and the principles of a well-told story, then you get people rising to their feet amid thunderous applause instead of yawning and ignoring you.
So What is a story?
Essentially, a story expresses how and why life changes. It begins with a situation in which life is relatively in balance: You come to work day after day, week after week, and everything’s fine. You expect it will go on that way. But then there’s an event—in screenwriting, we call it the “inciting incident”—that throws life out of balance. You get a new job, or the boss dies of a heart attack, or a big customer threatens to leave. The story goes on to describe how, in an effort to restore balance, the protagonist’s subjective expectations crash into an uncooperative objective reality. A good storyteller describes what it’s like to deal with these opposing forces, calling on the protagonist to dig deeper, work with scarce resources, make difficult decisions, take action despite risks, and ultimately discover the truth. All great storytellers since the dawn of time—from the ancient Greeks through Shakespeare and up to the present day—have dealt with this fundamental conflict between subjective expectation and cruel reality.
How would an executive learn to tell stories?
Stories have been implanted in you thousands of times since your mother took you on her knee. You’ve read good books, seen movies, attended plays. What’s more, human beings naturally want to work through stories. Cognitive psychologists describe how the human mind, in its attempt to understand and remember, assembles the bits and pieces of experience into a story, beginning with a personal desire, a life objective, and then portraying the struggle against the forces that block that desire. Stories are how we remember; we tend to forget lists and bullet points.
Businesspeople not only have to understand their companies’ past, but then they must project the future. And how do you imagine the future? As a story. You create scenarios in your head of possible future events to try to anticipate the life of your company or your own personal life. So, if a businessperson understands that his or her own mind naturally wants to frame experience in a story, the key to moving an audience is not to resist this impulse but to embrace it by telling a good story.
What makes a good story?
You emphatically do not want to tell a beginning-to-end tale describing how results meet expectations. This is boring and banal. Instead, you want to display the struggle between expectation and reality in all its nastiness.
For example, let’s imagine the story of a biotech start-up we’ll call Chemcorp, whose CEO has to persuade some Wall Street bankers to invest in the company. He could tell them that Chemcorp has discovered a chemical compound that prevents heart attacks and offer up a lot of slides showing them the size of the market, the business plan, the organizational chart, and so on. The bankers would nod politely and stifle yawns while thinking of all the other companies better positioned in Chemcorp’s market.
Alternatively, the CEO could turn his pitch into a story, beginning with someone close to him—say, his father—who died of a heart attack. So nature itself is the first antagonist that the CEO-as-protagonist must overcome. The story might unfold like this: In his grief, he realizes that if there had been some chemical indication of heart disease, his father’s death could have been prevented. His company discovers a protein that’s present in the blood just before heart attacks and develops an easy-to-administer, low-cost test.
But now it faces a new antagonist: the FDA. The approval process is fraught with risks and dangers. The FDA turns down the first application, but new research reveals that the test performs even better than anyone had expected, so the agency approves a second application. Meanwhile, Chemcorp is running out of money, and a key partner drops out and goes off to start his own company. Now Chemcorp is in a fight-to-the-finish patent race.
This accumulation of antagonists creates great suspense. The protagonist has raised the idea in the bankers’ heads that the story might not have a happy ending. By now, he has them on the edges of their seats, and he says, “We won the race, we got the patent, we’re poised to go public and save a quarter-million lives a year.” And the bankers just throw money at him.
“If you can harness imagination and the principles of a well-told story, then you get people rising to their feet amid thunderous applause instead of yawning and ignoring you.”

Aren’t you really talking about exaggeration and manipulation?
No. Although businesspeople are often suspicious of stories for the reasons you suggest, the fact is that statistics are used to tell lies and damn lies, while accounting reports are often BS in a ball gown—witness Enron and WorldCom.
When people ask me to help them turn their presentations into stories, I begin by asking questions. I kind of psychoanalyze their companies, and amazing dramas pour out. But most companies and executives sweep the dirty laundry, the difficulties, the antagonists, and the struggle under the carpet. They prefer to present a rosy—and boring—picture to the world. But as a storyteller, you want to position the problems in the foreground and then show how you’ve overcome them. When you tell the story of your struggles against real antagonists, your audience sees you as an exciting, dynamic person. And I know that the storytelling method works, because after I consulted with a dozen corporations whose principals told exciting stories to Wall Street, they all got their money.
What’s wrong with painting a positive picture?
It doesn’t ring true. You can send out a press release talking about increased sales and a bright future, but your audience knows it’s never that easy. They know you’re not spotless; they know your competitor doesn’t wear a black hat. They know you’ve slanted your statement to make your company look good. Positive, hypothetical pictures and boilerplate press releases actually work against you because they foment distrust among the people you’re trying to convince. I suspect that most CEOs do not believe their own spin doctors—and if they don’t believe the hype, why should the public?
The great irony of existence is that what makes life worth living does not come from the rosy side. We would all rather be lotus-eaters, but life will not allow it. The energy to live comes from the dark side. It comes from everything that makes us suffer. As we struggle against these negative powers, we’re forced to live more deeply, more fully.
So acknowledging this dark side makes you more convincing?
Of course. Because you’re more truthful. One of the principles of good storytelling is the understanding that we all live in dread. Fear is when you don’t know what’s going to happen. Dread is when you know what’s going to happen and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. Death is the great dread; we all live in an ever shrinking shadow of time, and between now and then all kinds of bad things could happen.
Most of us repress this dread. We get rid of it by inflicting it on other people through sarcasm, cheating, abuse, indifference—cruelties great and small. We all commit those little evils that relieve the pressure and make us feel better. Then we rationalize our bad behavior and convince ourselves we’re good people. Institutions do the same thing: They deny the existence of the negative while inflicting their dread on other institutions or their employees.
If you’re a realist, you know that this is human nature; in fact, you realize that this behavior is the foundation of all nature. The imperative in nature is to follow the golden rule of survival: Do unto others what they do unto you. In nature, if you offer cooperation and get cooperation back, you get along. But if you offer cooperation and get antagonism back, then you give antagonism in return—in spades.
Ever since human beings sat around the fire in caves, we’ve told stories to help us deal with the dread of life and the struggle to survive. All great stories illuminate the dark side. I’m not talking about so-called “pure” evil, because there is no such thing. We are all evil and good, and these sides do continual battle. Kenneth Lay says wiping out people’s jobs and life savings was unintentional. Hannibal Lecter is witty, charming, and brilliant, and he eats people’s livers. Audiences appreciate the truthfulness of a storyteller who acknowledges the dark side of human beings and deals honestly with antagonistic events. The story engenders a positive but realistic energy in the people who hear it.
Does this mean you have to be a pessimist?
It’s not a question of whether you’re optimistic or pessimistic. It seems to me that the civilized human being is a skeptic—someone who believes nothing at face value. Skepticism is another principle of the storyteller. The skeptic understands the difference between text and subtext and always seeks what’s really going on. The skeptic hunts for the truth beneath the surface of life, knowing that the real thoughts and feelings of institutions or individuals are unconscious and unexpressed. The skeptic is always looking behind the mask. Street kids, for example, with their tattoos, piercings, chains, and leather, wear amazing masks, but the skeptic knows the mask is only a persona. Inside anyone working that hard to look fierce is a marshmallow. Genuinely hard people make no effort.
So, a story that embraces darkness produces a positive energy in listeners?
Absolutely. We follow people in whom we believe. The best leaders I’ve dealt with—producers and directors—have come to terms with dark reality. Instead of communicating via spin doctors, they lead their actors and crews through the antagonism of a world in which the odds of getting the film made, distributed, and sold to millions of moviegoers are a thousand to one. They appreciate that the people who work for them love the work and live for the small triumphs that contribute to the final triumph.
CEOs, likewise, have to sit at the head of the table or in front of the microphone and navigate their companies through the storms of bad economies and tough competition. If you look your audience in the eye, lay out your really scary challenges, and say, “We’ll be lucky as hell if we get through this, but here’s what I think we should do,” they will listen to you.
To get people behind you, you can tell a truthful story. The story of General Electric is wonderful and has nothing to do with Jack Welch’s cult of celebrity. If you have a grand view of life, you can see it on all its complex levels and celebrate it in a story. A great CEO is someone who has come to terms with his or her own mortality and, as a result, has compassion for others. This compassion is expressed in stories.
Take the love of work, for example. Years ago, when I was in graduate school, I worked as an insurance fraud investigator. The claimant in one case was an immigrant who’d suffered a terrible head injury on a carmaker’s assembly line. He’d been the fastest window assembler on the line and took great pride in his work. When I spoke to him, he was waiting to have a titanium plate inserted into his head.
The man had been grievously injured, but the company thought he was a fraud. In spite of that, he remained incredibly dedicated. All he wanted was to get back to work. He knew the value of work, no matter how repetitive. He took pride in it and even in the company that had falsely accused him. How wonderful it would have been for the CEO of that car company to tell the tale of how his managers recognized the falseness of their accusation and then rewarded the employee for his dedication. The company, in turn, would have been rewarded with redoubled effort from all the employees who heard that story.
How do storytellers discover and unearth the stories that want to be told?
The storyteller discovers a story by asking certain key questions. First, what does my protagonist want in order to restore balance in his or her life? Desire is the blood of a story. Desire is not a shopping list but a core need that, if satisfied, would stop the story in its tracks. Next, what is keeping my protagonist from achieving his or her desire? Forces within? Doubt? Fear? Confusion? Personal conflicts with friends, family, lovers? Social conflicts arising in the various institutions in society? Physical conflicts? The forces of Mother Nature? Lethal diseases in the air? Not enough time to get things done? The damned automobile that won’t start? Antagonists come from people, society, time, space, and every object in it, or any combination of these forces at once. Then, how would my protagonist decide to act in order to achieve his or her desire in the face of these antagonistic forces? It’s in the answer to that question that storytellers discover the truth of their characters, because the heart of a human being is revealed in the choices he or she makes under pressure. Finally, the storyteller leans back from the design of events he or she has created and asks, “Do I believe this? Is it neither an exaggeration nor a soft-soaping of the struggle? Is this an honest telling, though heaven may fall?”
Does being a good storyteller make you a good leader?
Not necessarily, but if you understand the principles of storytelling, you probably have a good understanding of yourself and of human nature, and that tilts the odds in your favor. I can teach the formal principles of stories, but not to a person who hasn’t really lived. The art of storytelling takes intelligence, but it also demands a life experience that I’ve noted in gifted film directors: the pain of childhood. Childhood trauma forces you into a kind of mild schizophrenia that makes you see life simultaneously in two ways: First, it’s direct, real-time experience, but at the same moment, your brain records it as material—material out of which you will create business ideas, science, or art. Like a double-edged knife, the creative mind cuts to the truth of self and the humanity of others.

Self-knowledge is the root of all great storytelling. A storyteller creates all characters from the self by asking the question, “If I were this character in these circumstances, what would I do?” The more you understand your own humanity, the more you can appreciate the humanity of others in all their good-versus-evil struggles. I would argue that the great leaders Jim Collins describes are people with enormous self-knowledge. They have self-insight and self-respect balanced by skepticism. Great storytellers—and, I suspect, great leaders—are skeptics who understand their own masks as well as the masks of life, and this understanding makes them humble. They see the humanity in others and deal with them in a compassionate yet realistic way. That duality makes for a wonderful leader.

Structure Your Presentation Like a Story.........



After studying hundreds of speeches, I’ve found that the most effective presenters use the same techniques as great storytellers: By reminding people of the status quo and then revealing the path to a better way, they set up a conflict that needs to be resolved.
That tension helps them persuade the audience to adopt a new mindset or behave differently — to move from what is to what could be. And by following Aristotle’s three-part story structure (beginning, middle, end), they create a message that’s easy to digest, remember, and retell.
Here’s how it looks when you chart it out:
Duarte 4-1.jpg And here’s how to do it in your own presentations.
Craft the Beginning
Start by describing life as the audience knows it. People should be nodding their heads in recognition because you’re articulating what they already understand. This creates a bond between you and them, and opens them up to hear your ideas for change.
After you set that baseline of what is, introduce your vision of what could be. The gap between the two will throw the audience a bit off balance, and that’s a good thing — it jars them out of complacency. For instance:
What is: We fell short of our Q3 financial goals partly because we’re understaffed and everyone’s spread too thin.
What could be: But what if we could solve the worst of our problems by bringing in a couple of powerhouse clients? Well, we can.
Once you establish that gap, use the rest of the presentation to bridge it
Develop the Middle
Now that people in your audience realize their world is off-kilter, keep playing up the contrast between what is and what could be.
Let’s go back to that Q3 update. Revenues are down, but you want to motivate employees to make up for it. Here’s one way you could structure the middle of your presentation:
What is: We missed our Q3 forecast by 15%.
What could be: Q4 numbers must be strong for us to pay out bonuses.
What is: We have six new clients on our roster.
What could be: Two of them have the potential to bring in more revenue than our best clients do now.
What is: The new clients will require extensive retooling in manufacturing.
What could be: We’ll be bringing in experts from Germany to help.
As you move back and forth between what is and what could be, the audience will find the latter more and more alluring.
Make the Ending Powerful
You don’t want to end with a burdensome list of to-dos. Definitely include a call to action — but make it inspiring so people will want to act. Describe what I call the new bliss: how much better their world will be when they adopt your ideas.
So if you’re wrapping up that Q3 update from above, you might approach it this way:
Call to action: It will take extra work from all departments to make Q4 numbers, but we can deliver products to our important new clients on time and with no errors.
New bliss: I know everyone’s running on fumes — but hang in there. This is our chance to pull together like a championship team, and things will get easier if we make this work. The reward if we meet our Q4 targets? Bonuses, plus days off at the end of the year.
By defining future rewards, you show people that getting on board will be worth their effort. It’ll meet their needs, not just yours.

Why Your Brain Loves Good Storytelling...........

It is quiet and dark. The theater is hushed. James Bond skirts along the edge of a building as his enemy takes aim. Here in the audience, heart rates increase and palms sweat.  I know this to be true because instead of enjoying the movie myself, I am measuring the brain activity of a dozen viewers. For me, excitement has a different source: I am watching an amazing neural ballet in which a story line changes the activity of people’s brains.
Many business people have already discovered the power of storytelling in a practical sense – they have observed how compelling a well-constructed narrative can be. But recent scientific work is putting a much finer point on just how stories change our attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors.
As social creatures, we depend on others for our survival and happiness. A decade ago, my lab discovered that a neurochemical called oxytocin is a key “it’s safe to approach others” signal in the brain. Oxytocin is produced when we are trusted or shown a kindness, and it motivates cooperation with others. It does this by enhancing the sense of empathy, our ability to experience others’ emotions. Empathy is important for social creatures because it allows us to understand how others are likely to react to a situation, including those with whom we work.
More recently my lab wondered if we could “hack” the oxytocin system to motivate people to engage in cooperative behaviors. To do this, we tested if narratives shot on video, rather than face-to-face interactions, would cause the brain to make oxytocin. By taking blood draws before and after the narrative, we found that character-driven stories do consistently cause oxytocin synthesis. Further, the amount of oxytocin released by the brain predicted how much people were willing to help others; for example, donating money to a charity associated with the narrative.
In subsequent studies we have been able to deepen our understanding of why stories motivate voluntary cooperation. (This research was given a boost when, with funding from the U.S. Department of Defense, we developed ways to measure oxytocin release noninvasively at up to one thousand times per second.) We discovered that, in order to motivate a desire to help others, a story must first sustain attention – a scarce resource in the brain – by developing tension during the narrative. If the story is able to create that tension then it is likely that attentive viewers/listeners will come to share the emotions of the characters in it, and after it ends, likely to continue mimicking the feelings and behaviors of those characters. This explains the feeling of dominance you have after James Bond saves the world, and your motivation to work out after watching the Spartans fight in 300.
These findings on the neurobiology of storytelling are relevant to business settings. For example, my experiments show that character-driven stories with emotional content result in a better understanding of the key points a speaker wishes to make and enable better recall of these points weeks later. In terms of making impact, this blows the standard PowerPoint presentation to bits. I advise business people to begin every presentation with a compelling, human-scale story. Why should customers or a person on the street care about the project you are proposing? How does it change the world or improve lives? How will people feel when it is complete? These are the components that make information persuasive and memorable.
My research has also shown that stories are useful inside organizations. We know that people are substantially more motivated by their organization’s transcendent purpose (how it improves lives) than by its transactional purpose (how it sells goods and services).  Transcendent purpose is effectively communicated through stories – for example, by describing the pitiable situations of actual, named customers and how their problems were solved by your efforts. Make your people empathize with the pain the customer experiened and they will also feel the pleasure of its resolution – all the more if some heroics went in to reducing suffering or struggle, or producing joy. Many of us know from Joseph Campbell’s work that enduring stories tend to share a dramatic arc in which a character struggles and eventually finds heretofore unknown abilities and uses these to triumph over adversity; my work shows that the brain is highly attracted to this story style.
Finally, don’t forget that your organization has its own story – its founding myth. An effective way to communicate transcendent purpose is by sharing that tale. What passion led the founder(s) to risk health and wealth to start the enterprise? Why was it so important, and what barriers had to be overcome? These are the stories that, repeated over and over, stay core to the organization’s DNA. They provide guidance for daily decision-making as well as the motivation that comes with the conviction that the organization’s work must go on, and needs everyone’s full engagement to make a difference in people’s lives.
When you want to motivate, persuade, or be remembered, start with a story of human struggle and eventual triumph. It will capture people’s hearts – by first attracting their brains.

Risky decisions and safe decisions happen in a different part of the brain.....

In a third study—this one in 2005—researchers used fMRIs to monitor the brain activity of participants as they chose between stocks and bonds based on a small amount of information about the performance of each.
Participants were prone to two types of investing mistakes: risk-seeking mistakes (going for the stock when it was unwise) and risk-aversion mistakes (going for the bond when a stock would have been more promising). And in the brain, the two looked completely different.

Whereas risk-seeking mistakes were associated with high activation of the nucleus accumbens, risk-aversion mistakes were linked to activation of the anterior insula, a hub of social emotions and self-awareness which other studies have found lights up when people "feel pain, anticipate pain, empathize with others...see disgust on someone’s face...[and] decide not to buy an item."



What Happens to Your Brain When You Negotiate About Money

Not once in the original edition of Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In, which was published in 1981, was the word “brain” mentioned. Certainly, the “mind” was invoked several times to discuss the psychological aspects involved in negotiation. The absence of the “brain” is to be expected, as neuroscience didn’t reveal insights into negotiation and money usage until the mid 2000s, after functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was introduced a decade before.
But as one prominent neuroscientist put it, “MRIs are a game-changer.” For example, researchers in one study could predict whether participants would choose to buy stocks or a bond by looking at their brain scans. Participants who chose stocks, the riskier investment, had more activation in their nucleus accumbens, a section located deep within the brain that’s part of our reward circuitry and plays a role in processing motivations and emotions.
Part of the reason such results are so easy to see is that nothing excites the brain quite like money.
When you’re negotiating about money, for instance you’re dealing with something that elicits tremendous neural excitement. In one study, a team of researchers scanned the brains of a dozen people while they played a game in which they could make or lose money. The scans revealed the nucleus accumbens had heightened neural activity. The researchers then compared the brain scans of the participants who were about to make money with drug addicts high on cocaine. The results were startling: the brain scans were nearly identical.
“We very quickly found out that nothing had an effect on people like money – not naked bodies, nor corpses. It got people riled up. Like food provides motivation for dogs, money provides it for people,” says Dr. Brian Knutson, one of the researchers, and an expert who has published many works on the neuroscience of financial decision-making.
Brain scans can also help illustrate what’s happening in our brains when we’re making non-rational financial decisions in a negotiation. In another study, the brains of nineteen participants were scanned as they played the “ultimatum game,” which involves negotiating about money. During each iteration of the game, two participants known as the “proposer” and “responder” were asked to split an amount of money. If they couldn’t agree, nobody would receive the money. The proposer made an offer, and the responder decided whether to accept or reject it. The rational, logical decision for the responder would be to accept any offer, as its better to have something in your pocket instead of nothing at all. But responders rejected about fifty percent of low offers, as they felt insulted with the low offers. The responders would rather punish the proposers than make a buck themselves.
But what’s happening in the brain to lead to this decision? When a responder receives a proposal on how to split the money, it fires his dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. This region of the brain is what makes us self-aware, reflective beings and helps us solve complex problems. So it makes sense that it activates when we are evaluating a financial decision. But when responders were offered an unfair proposal, another part of the brain activated, the anterior insula, which is part of the emotional wiring of the brain, involved in making us feel anxiety, pain, even hunger. And actually, the anterior insula has what’s known as “spindle cells” that are more commonly found in the digestive system. “When you get a ‘gut feeling’ that an investment has gone sour, you might not be imagining. The spindle cells in your insula may be firing in sync with your churning stomach,” writes financial journalist Jason Zweig. So when you negotiate about money, and you get a lowball offer, you might feel it in your gut.
Given how transparent our brains are when we’re thinking about cash, perhaps today’s negotiators should take comfort in the fact that MRI machines are still confined to hospitals and research labs. But know that it might not stay that way forever. Already, some hedge funds are exploring whether to use brain scans in evaluating prospective job candidates to see whether they are more risk averse or risk seeking. And the day may come when the brain scans of negotiators, arbitrators, and mediators, are scrutinized to see whether an individual is predisposed to making decisions that are rational or more subject to emotions. “Getting to yes” may mean taking an MRI first.

Sunday, July 16, 2017

SUN PHARMA....Pyschological Correction....

IN 2015...the stock market scenario was totally and blindly positive about Pharma sector..one of my relatives in May 2015 bought sun pharma @1100...and about knowing his purchased value i adviced my relative that instead of purchasing at this level...do the opposite because at these steep valuations it was a perfect sell...but the interesting thing happened that i had to shut up because the relative told me he has got a target price of 2000/- in coming one year....

so now in the present july 2017.... Sun pharma after making a low of 493/- is around  570on closing basis...
i mean almost like 2 years of correction from the top it made in 2015...two years of correction is a long correction bear phase and most of the time the stock makes its bottom and complete interest is lost in the stock...but here the case is different because still people are active in sun pharma and they are getting active recommendations to buy and also trade in sun pharma as per todays scenario...Also Business channels are continously talking about sun pharma on their shows from time to time...all these has to stop...so Psychological does it still means there is correction left in sun pharma because so much active trading and purchasing happening in the stock.....

YES....is my guess....still i think that pricewise correction can happen and cannot happen....but TIMEWISE correction for the next 3/5 years can happen for sure....

Like the example of RELIANCE INDUSTRIES....it made the bottom in OCtOBER 2008 from its top made in JANUARY 2008....and after almost like 9 years the present price is  near the TOP PRICE LEVELS of 1600/- it made in JanUAry 2008...by the way the present price of Reliance Industries is 1533...

What i mean here is that SUN PHARMA  if it corrects for the next 3/4 years timewise and say little by pricewise then the last froth which is left will also dissolve and vanished...so almost zero speculation will be left and ONLY THE INNOVATORS i mean value investors will start purchasing for long term investing...say for the next 10 years...but note immensed wealth can be generated in the next 10/12 years from here...it will be a Multibagger for sure.....SALE....SALE...PHARMA DISCOUNT at 60% FROM ITS TOP PRICE....

the same was the story of Reliance Industries....these last 9 years everyone abused Reliance Industries...but now the scenario has change...they have all become lovers of Relinace Industries....LAAVO.....LAAVO....RELIANCE LAAVO.....

Back on Sun Pharma....So until unless people in the next coming years dont talk bad and worst about SUN PHARMA and literally abuse the stock and swear never to invest in Pharma sector...till that time the correction and  bottoming of the stock has not happened...But please note the above article on Sun Pharma are my personnel views.... so ask your financial advisor for any stock recommendation and to purchase....

Saturday, July 15, 2017

Yesterday at my friends place

We 3 friends meet after along time and.  having a small get together Party after almost 3 years or more.. suddenly the talk of the evening started with the Topic of stock market.....and the best part was that I didn't take any initiative to talk and discuss about the stock market...The discussion lasted for almost like 15/20 minutes and the friend who started talking in the first place purchased lots of stock in the Logistics sector is what he said....

So I found it very shocking and also felt happy from within that it shows and proves to some extent that we are in the middle phase of the BuLl tREnd....

PyscholOLIcal aSPect of the stock market...

MiDDle pHaSE.....CaUTIoUSlY opTImiStic..