my Articles

 [19/03, 9:18 am] Jiten Patel: Difference Between Fear..... Anxious...... Worries......Doubts.....in Stock Market......

When market is at New Highs the Mind plays tricks with us and our mind becomes very Anxious and is in constant Doubt that the Ongoing Rally will be able to Sustain and if a Correction or Crash is Coming.....

Yeh toh Naazmii hae......Aur honaa bhi hae ......

But all Bull Market Rally Goes Up and Up and Climb the Wall of Worries......

In here Fear is not Applied.......

On should be Fearful only when the Bull Market Trend changes or Reverses  and thereafter Market is going for a Toss.....

So identifying the above Psychological Scenario is a must for better long term Investing

[19/03, 12:51 pm] Jiten Patel: Your Mind is More Attracted Towards Profit and Loss......And Neglecting the Sample Size of the Hit and Miss of Successful and Unsuccessful Number of Trades.....

Profit and Loss is Emotional Processing And Sample Size Analogy is Mental Processing

[23/03, 8:23 pm] Jiten Patel: Next Rally In Market.......

As I Presume that the next Rally In the Market will Come out of Boredom......

Yes...... you are Reading it Right......

The Last Few Months in the market were Full of Thrill and Excitement of Continuous Upside Rally.....

But as I have written Earlier that easy money making days are way behind us and the Next Rally will be Born out of BOREDOM.......

So I predict that the coming Few Months in the market should and can be of Frustrations...... Boredom...... And Non Exciting.......Non Thrilling......

The Smart People are very much aware that at Current LEveLs if Uncertainty and Doubt is Created in the Minds of Market Participants that the Market is Range Bound and No Further Steam is Left in the market to take it Up from Current LEveLs......then the very same Market Participants will start Selling to them at Current LEveLs out of Frustrations and Boredom.....and thereafter will be out of the Market.......

For The market to go Up these Shake up is very Necessary because the Smart Investors don't want the Idiotic Investors to Earn because someone has to lose for the other to win...... and these rule applies in stock market.....

If idiotic Investors win then Smart Investors have to Lose and that is never going to happen......

But the Smart Investors know that once the current Ongoing Correction gets Over TIMEWISE because of Boredom and Pricewise the market is going to go Up to New HIGHER Prices......

So not to allow the idiotic Investors to earn money the current Correction is necessary along with Boredom.....

Because we are in the habit of watching Prices going Up and Up in the rally from @7500 to @15400 and enjoying the excitement thrill euphoria the sudden Dullness in the market movement Will get the better of us because of Boredom......

So believing what I have written above I think all the Smart Investors can adopt the above Market Psychology......

So be Invested for the long term and don't fall prey to Boredom and Frustration......

The biggest misery of men is that he can not sit idle and needs to do something or the other and these fallacy goes against our Investing Processes and Strategies.......

It is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved also......

Buying and Selling is at your own Discretion Only......

The above mentioned Text Article is only for Educational Purpose......

I am not a certified financial advisor......

Please consult your Financial Advisor before making and taking any Financial or Investing Decisions.......

[24/03, 12:16 pm] Jiten Patel: dramatic changes in an environment, as opposed to small changes, attract more cognitive resources, all else being equal.

[24/03, 12:16 pm] Jiten Patel: gradual changes attract much less attention than dramatic changes. So investors typically underreact to gradual information but overreact to dramatic changes in the markets.

The theory behind both momentum and value investing is that investors first underreact to news, events or data releases but then overreact once things become more apparent. When investors get caught up in the herd mentality this causes stock prices to overshoot in both directions.

[24/03, 12:16 pm] Jiten Patel: EXPLANATION TO BOILING FROG SYNDROME IN CURRENT  STOCK MARKET......

Market Went from 7500 to 15400 was very Volatile Movement and It drew Everybody's Attention...... Because the Movement was Very Quick and Noticable......

Now the Theory of Boiling Frog Syndrome will come in to Play......

Henceforth the Movement in the market will be a Classical example of Boiling Frog Syndrome......

As I have written Earlier the Easy and Fast Money Making Days in Stock Market are Over and the Lethargic Phase of Money Making Days can Start from hereonwards......

The Nifty Gradual Movement Upside to New Highs will be Full of Road Blocks......Barriers and will look like a Big Wall is Standing in Front of us and the Ride will be a Bumpy Ride.....

THE GRADUAL UPSIDE LIKE BOILING FROG SYNDROME WILL BE SO SLOW THAT WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SEE IT AND THE UPSIDE RALLY WILL BE COMPLETELY INVISIBLE TO US.......

BY THE TIME THE WATER REACHES THE BOILING POINT AND NIFTY REACHES TO DIZZY HEIGHTS ON THE UPSIDE IDIOTIC INVESTORS WILL JUMP IN TO THE BOILING WATER AT MARKET TOP LEVELS.......

And these fallacy works perfectly in our day to day life and we get Burnt......

So henceforth as per my READING Prediction and Observations the Market Movement on the Upside Rally to New Highs will be Very Small to be Visible to Human Mind and the Angle of Gradient on the Upside will be very Small and Gradual.........

It is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also......

Buying and Selling is at your own Discretion Only......

The above mentioned Text Article is only for Educational Purpose.......

I am not a certified financial advisor.....

Please consult your Financial Advisor before making and taking any Financial or Investing Decisions.......

[24/03, 12:16 pm] Jiten Patel: “frog in the boiling water syndrome.”   If you put a frog in boiling water, it will jump out of it immediately. It cannot bear the heat of the water and hence reacts fast. However, if you put the same frog in water at room temperature, slowly heat it up and gradually raise the temperature to boiling point, the frog will continue to swim in the water until it dies – a slow death. The gradual change leads the frog to death but it can respond quickly to a sudden change.

Volatility of stock prices is like boiling water – if you put the frog in boiling water, he jumps out. Till the time the water temperature was increased slowly, the frog was ok – this is akin to the low volatility situation of the previous decade. The moment a frog was thrown into boiling water, it jumped. That was the month of March 2020.

The frog in this case could be equated with human mind. Investors get scared of the wild price fluctuations, or the heightened volatility. Due to this, they either run away from equity investing or borrow and buy stocks. In other words, the strong emotions of greed and fear take over and the investor starts to act irrationally.

[24/03, 12:58 pm] Jiten Patel: Business Analysis......

Presently the Business Environment is  going through the most Pessimistic Phase of Fear..... Liquidity Crisis.......Less Orders....... Stagnant Growth.....

But the Growth in Business henceforth will be Very Small and Gradual and for the next few Years will not be Visible to Human Mind....  

But When the Economy Starts Running with Full Throttle the Changes happening in the Economy will start to be visible to Us and during the time of Boiling water we will all jump with Investing more in Expansion..... Investing in Properties......etc......etc..... Because during the BOILING Temperature our Confidence will very High and we will Jump in to the BOILING WATER and get ourselves Burnt.........

[28/03, 12:59 pm] Jiten Patel: BOILING FROG SYNDROME......

LIKE  in our Life the Day we were born till date for Someone 50 years must passed.....for someone else 35 years must have passed but have you ever Realised the Changes which happened in your Lives from the Day you were born till the Present Living Day......

Yes you must have not discovered or were not consciously aware about the Small and Gradual changes happening in your Lives.....Even though you were changing throughout your lives but the you completely missed being Aware of it even when it was in front of you......

Now the same way in the Long Term Investing the market will go Up and Up but the Changes are so Small and Gradual that we won't be Able to Capture the Uptrend Bull Market .......and Miss out on the Golden Opportunity to create wealth for ourselves.......

Even from now onwards the Uptrend Bull Market Rally will be so small and gradual that we won't realize and understand that the Market keeps on making New Lifetime Highs.....and the same WILL apply down the road.......

So understanding the faulty system with which we are born and mending will faulty system  will prove extremely beneficial to creating wealth.......

It is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also.....

Buying and Selling is at your own Discretion Only......

The above mentioned Text Article is only for Educational Purpose.......

[29/03, 3:19 pm] Jiten Patel: Reference Group Neglect........

Never Gamble With Anyone Who Wants To Gamble With You: Reference Group Neglect Means You Ignore Information That Being Willing To Pay implies They Are Good. ....

Idiotic Investors and Idiotic Traders are Insensitive to the Skills and Qualities of their Competitors.....ie Smart Investors and Smart Traders ... ..

These Idiotic Investors and Idiotic Traders are Victims of Reference Neglect Group and they always think they can Beat the Smart Market Participants in the Game of Trading and Investing.......But they don't realise that only out of Shear Chance and Luck they are Making Money.....

[29/03, 3:19 pm] Jiten Patel: These Idiotic Investors and Traders after Few Winning Streaks Start Thinking that they Now Posses the Intelligence and Knowledge to beat the market but in reality..... ignorantly they are killing themselves financially....... They think that they now have the magic wand and possess the knowledge to Break the Code.....

[29/03, 3:19 pm] Jiten Patel: But one day that Luck will Vanish in to Thin Air and at the End these idiotic Investors and Idiotic Traders have to 100% Lose Money........

[29/03, 3:19 pm] Jiten Patel: Underestimating the Potential Skills of other market players is the Biggest Mistake made in Investing and Trading......

[29/03, 3:19 pm] Jiten Patel: Of Trading and Investing

[30/03, 9:37 pm] Jiten Patel: Actuarial science is a discipline that assesses financial risks in the insurance and finance fields, using mathematical and statistical methods. Actuarial science applies the mathematics of probability and statistics to define, analyze, and solve the financial implications of uncertain future events.

But the most interesting thing is that Human Beings are not evolved to do the Above Processes because it consumes lots of the Brain's Mental Energy......

And The Mental Energy is very important for the Functioning of our brains..... and Brain doesn't want to use the Precious Energy.......

And so our Brain develops Short Cuts to Navigate to make our lives Easier......

But because this Short Cuts which are helpful which helps to Navigate easily throughout our day in Financial Decision making it gets us in Problem......But note the Autopilot short Cuts are very necessary otherwise every step you take forward and calculate the Possibilities and Probabilities that you won't Fall Down will Fry your Brain......that goes for each and every activity you Think and Perform...... and your Brain doesn't have so much Mental Energy in 24 hours to continuously think and perform each and every Action......

So Evolution has given us Short Cuts as the first Mode of Thinking and Taking Decisions  Actions and that is the reason why Probabilities ...... Analysis..... Mathematics is not the natural first step of Processing Information for our Brain.......

And that is the Reason why we Buy STOCKS Impulsively and Intuitively with a Guy Feeling......Buy on TIPs.....price abhi 200/- hae Eek mahinae mae 250/- hoo jayaegaa......

Bhai Suzlon aachhi Company hae.....Insider News hae 3 junaa bhav hoo jayaegaa......

Okay tell me at any given point of time when Buying a Stock.....

Have you Read the Fundamental of the Company.....

Have you ever Calculated the Possibilities and Probabilities  of the Stock performing as you think and if not then what.....

But in all the above lot's of Mental Energy will be used Up and the Brain doesn't like it .....

Have you ever given a thought why Mathematics subject is Disliked by the Majority of the Students.....

[30/03, 9:37 pm] Jiten Patel: Anyways however Hard you try now...... but once you have developed the Habit and Behavior of BUYING STOCKS in the above manner......It is going to be Futile......

[30/03, 9:37 pm] Jiten Patel: And so Majority of the Investors for the Rest of their Lives will Buy STOCKS on Gut feeling..... Intuitively...... Impulsively..... without given any Importance to Fundamental and Probabilities

[30/03, 9:57 pm] Jiten Patel: You are going to Underperform in the LONG TERM......

Yes by Chance and by Luck you might earn but that is also a Case of Probabilities......

[31/03, 7:52 pm] Jiten Patel: How we get Attracted by Hot Fancy Rolling STOCKS.......

Suppose we are standing in a Open Parking Lot and there are 50 Cars Parked in the Parking Lot......

But in the Parking Lot there is a Maserati Car Parked in Parking Lot along with other Normal Car Brands.....

Now as you are passing through the parking lot suddenly your attention gets diverted towards the Maserati Car......And you start looking at the car..... and starts admiring its shape......colour.....interiors.....etc.....

But there are other cars also next to the Maserati Car but you ignore those cars completely......

Same way in Stock Market there are 6000 Companies and as the way your mind got distracted towards the Maserati Car...... same way your mind gets Distracted towards HOT FANCY STOCKS......

You neglect the other STOCKS which are Value Buys and Buy STOCKS which are going Up even though they are very expensive as compared to their Valuation.....

These anamoly is exploited by STOCKS Operators and Business TV Channels......

It is like a Beautiful Girl standing in the Crowd and you are not attracted to look at her ...... same way STOCKS going Up Divert our Attention and Focus and we jump in to the STOCK without giving a Second Thought.......

[31/03, 7:52 pm] Jiten Patel: And so Boring STOCKS even though they are Value Buys are out of Favour....... and we neglect them completely

[02/04, 12:34 pm] Jiten Patel: [12:20 PM, 4/2/2021] Jiten Patel: Why do we book Profits Earlier......tendency for people to increasingly choose a smaller-sooner reward over a larger-later reward as the delay occurs sooner rather than later in time. When offered a larger reward in exchange for waiting a set amount of time, people act less

impulsively (i.e., choose to wait) as the rewards happen further in the future. Put another way,

people avoid waiting more as the wait nears the present time. The notion of discounting future rewards relative to immediate pleasure has a long

history. People generally want rewards sooner rather than later. Thus, options that delay a reward

appear less attractive and people discount them. So that is the reason why we book profits earlier as the stocks rises because the Certainty of Profits today than in the future which is umcertain.

so in investing we miss the Bigger Rewards in the form of Long Term investing and run after short term profits like if you buy Reliance industries @ 1000 and stock runs to @1400 you book profits because of the fear of the stock falling again...Kal kisnae dekha hae works perfectly in Investing.....so it is not your problem but it is how humans are perceived to do things and react accordingly......

[03/04, 11:11 am] Jiten Patel: And whether the Body Language of the stock means to Tell us......does it really wants to go Up........

[03/04, 11:11 am] Jiten Patel: Between May 4th and 12 th May Sun Pharma can be anywhere between @685......@705.......

First Rally  from @610 can go Between @625 to @635......

But there after after reaching @625.....@635 there can be a Stop and it can Correct within a Range......

After that Range Bound Correction get's Over Sun Pharma can Resume it's Rally towards @685......@705.......

So BUYING  can make it More Attractive Probabilities Wise.......

For coming Monday......

Thursday Close @610..... Stop Loss @585...... Maybe in a day or two it can Correct and afterwards to @625......635.....

It is  my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I can be proved Wrong also......

Buying and Selling is at your own Discretion Only.....

Please consult your Financial Advisor before making and taking any Financial or Investing Decisions......

I am not a certified financial advisor......

The above mentioned Text Article is only for Educational Purpose.......

[03/04, 11:11 am] Jiten Patel: The Language of the Sun Pharma STOCK is saying it is going Upwards but Important is To note is it's Body Language......So one has to observe and learn the Body Language of the Sun Pharma STOCK........

[04/04, 11:34 am] Jiten Patel: Technical Analysis (SHORT TERM) of Regularly BUYING and Selling Is Instant Immediate Gratification.......

Fundamental Analysis (LONG TERM) is all about Delayed Gratification.......

[04/04, 11:54 am] Jiten Patel: Technical Analysis (SHORT TERM) of Regularly BUYING and Selling Is Instant Immediate Gratification.......

Fundamental Analysis (LONG TERM) is all about Delayed Gratification.......

[04/04, 11:54 am] Jiten Patel: It is a comparison where technical Analysis will develop your habits and Behaviors more towards Trading......More Buying and Selling......So more Buying and Selling trades leads you to more Gratification.......of Immediate Profits because we humans are Pattern Seeking animals......and once we identify patterns in technical Analysis the urge......of instantly making a trade for immediate rewards come in to Play.......

Fundamental Analysis doesn't take you towards Trading much Often.....

 So in Technical Analysis Once you Identify a Winning Pattern your Brain is Forced to go for a Trade of Buying or Selling.....

The Rush of Adrenaline of Now or Never is So High that the FOMO comes in to Play...... because the Recognise Pattern in the Chart by your brain is Scream telling you Profit is 100% Guaranteed......So please Take the Trade........ Don't be Stupid to Let go the Sure Win Trade......

[04/04, 9:31 pm] Jiten Patel: How can you be different in Investing......

Information of Technical Analysis every one gets it on mobile nowadays..... Everyday you get the Next LEveLs of Nifty from Brokers..... Technical Analyst..... Relatives...... Friends......etc......

Information of Fundamental Analysis also everyone gets it on mobile nowadays..... Everyday you get the Next LEveLs of Nifty from Brokers.... Fundamental Analyst..... Relatives...... Friends......etc......But still it is difficult to understand knowing the Balance Sheet......

Economics information also easily available on mobile......

So every information which we did not have in the past and was limited to one few those days are gone and now everyone has all the Information which is just a Click Away.....

So the edge in past years these brokers were having to manipulate STOCK prices are Gone...... because information is easily accessible to everyone.....

So now what is that thing which has an Edge for becoming successful in Investing......

Yes Practising PATIENCE AND PATIENCE.......

IT IS A RARE COMMODITY IN STOCK MARKET AND ANYONE WHO HAS MASTER THE SCIENCE AND ART OF PRACTISING PATIENCE IN INVESTING CAN DO REALLY GOOD FOR HIMSELF IN CREATING WEALTH.......

[06/04, 8:45 pm] Jiten Patel: Comparison in Rate of Returns Between Simple Interest and Compound Interest.....

As we all know that Compounding your Money is in your Best Interest and Particularly the Best Opportunity to Compound your Money is in Stock Market when you Invest in Good Fundamental Companies at Right Price and Thereafter Sit Tight......

but even though we know these simple fact Still we are not able to capitalise on it......

because there is a constant Conflict in your Mind between what you want to do and what you think you should do...... 

Out here Emotions play an important role of Ruining your potential to Create Wealth in the long term Investing process and makes you take Irrational decisions.......

so it is Wise to use the power of Compounding and throw the Famous sentence...... KAAL KISNAE DEKHA HAE.....in to the Dustbin......

Happy LONG Term Compound Investing.......

[08/04, 9:40 am] Jiten Patel: Commonly Made Mistakes......

If you Chase the Price you Will Only Become Rich

But if you Chase the Story ( Fundamentals.... Future Growth of the Companies) you will become Wealthy......

if you have noticed even in our Daily Lives we Evaluate everything in Prices and all the Time we Chase Prices......But hardly do we Give an thinking to the Value of any Things......

Our Brains takes short Cuts to Process all things we Buy or Sell in Prices.....But never in Terms the Value of the Item......

bhai yeh Saabji kitnae kii hae......

Bhaisaab yeh Shirt kitnae kii hae......

Bhai sahab cricket match ki Tickets kitnae kii hae .......

bhaisaab flat kitnae kaa hae.....

STOCK KAA PRICE KITNA HAE.....

this is how we evaluate each and every thing IN Price Terms and not Value Terms.....

So the same mistakes we make in Stock Market where Value of the Stock is given Zero Consideration and Price of the Stocks are Draws are Full Attention.....

[08/04, 10:02 am] Jiten Patel: there is Biological Answer to why do we evaluate everything in Prices and not on Value Bases and so we apply the same Short Cut Decisions in Selecting STOCKS as we select Vegetables.....Shirts......Shoes.......TV...... Laptop......etc

[10/04, 5:13 pm] Jiten Patel: Why STOCK MARKET is  The Biggest Auction House ......

 Every One is familiar with the Auction Process......And we all know what happens in any form of Auction Bidding..... Most of the Times and With Higher Probabilities the Bidder always ends Up Paying more ......i mean He bids way more and ends up paying more then the Instrinsic Value of the Product..........

Let us not fall in to the nitty gritty of why such things happen in Auction Bidding Process ......

Likewise same Auction Bidding Happens in Stock Market During Bull Market.....

The Buyer of a Particular a Stock always ends Up Paying More then he had Intended and way above the Intrinsic Value because Other Participants are also bidding for the same Stock simultaneously and Jacking Up the Prices to Higher and Higher Levels......

So the Desperate FOMO Buyer of Stock.....same as in the case of Auction Bidding..... ends up Paying exhorbitant High Price for the Stock and feels proud for Owning the Stock.......

But in the End he is the Loser because he Ends Up Paying more for The STOCKS........

[10/04, 5:13 pm] Jiten Patel: Constant Conflict Between Savers who Invests their Money In NSC..... Company Bonds......PPF .......Bank Deposit and Businesses........

Who Wins and Who Looses......

Before i start my explanation We keep aside the Inflation Criteria.......

In 2010 Interest Rates in Banks were around say 9:50% and Corporate Bonds Yields were somewhere around 12/14% depending on Companies.......PPF was also giving somewhere around 8:75% or 9% per annum interest......

But Businesses were having Tough time because Lending Rates were somewhere around 14% to 16%....... because of High Interest Rates businesses have Low Profits.........And so the Savers......Depositors were Winning by Earning High Interest Rates.......

now the Cycle has Turned........

Interest Rates are around 5:50% in Banks .......6:75% in PPF...... corporate Bonds yields around 7:50%.......

So in these Scenario Businesses are Winning and Savers ....... Depositors are loosing........

Net Net Sometimes Businesses Wins Against Savers/Depositors.......and Sometimes Savers/Depositors Wins Against Businesses.......

Grab as much as you can from my articles because no one will or can give you the understanding of what i am writing......... Connecting the Dots of Different Fields Subjects and  All what i am writing is not possible to any extent by any one person to understand and Write........