Only thing which one can know about the market is its marKet cyCle and at which phase we are currently in that market cycle.....
Supposedly if 2008 is considered the bottom of the market cycle where the market was in full fear and pessimism (assuming a scale of "0") to the Euphoric phase of the market cycle which we might experience in the coming years (assuming a scale of 10)....
Then as per my understanding we are currently stAnDing in PHase 5.5 of these structural Bull market Trend......
But one should not forget that it won't be a smooth ride....in these journey towards the euphoric phase there are going to be many 6% .....10%..... and probably one or two18% corrections..... and there will be lots of volatility because of if and buts in between towards the Euphoric journey..... and not to forget hundreds of Stories which will result in market correction..... But I never ever give importance to any stories because they are just noises.....
The assumption is based on psychology and considering the market participation.....
Things which are to be expected in coming years....
SIP monthly figures shooting up to 15000 crore at one given point of time....
Hundreds of IPO issues coming in primary market......
Mother of IPO issue..... like Reliance power
Freely availablity of Money.....
Everyone will become expert in giving stock TIPs.....
In all Social gathering people will discuss only about stock market.....
This Time it is Different and we have Decoupled.....
Senseless Greed of making more and more easy money.....
Penny stocks will rule the stock market
The above are few things which will happen and until unless we don't go through all these phase...... the Euphoric market top as per my understanding is far far away.....
It is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.....
[10:21 AM, 3/22/2019] Jiten Patel: Common Human Bias..... human brain cannot interpret and read small changes happening around its surroundings......and it takes a very long time for the brain to really get to terms that changes are happening but by the time the brain realises these small changes happening..... the changes become so huge and prominent and known to everyone and everybody and thereafter become out of our reach and we are left with nothing..... not understanding small changes happening is a bias given to us by evolution.......so the market takes advantage of these human bias.....
MArket trend supposedly is upwards but market doesn't go up only in one direction......4 days it goes up.....then two days it goes down......then again it goes up 5 days.....then it goes down 3 days......again goes up 4 days..... correct for 2 days......but doing these small changes which becomes difficult for our brain to read the market will travel from 10100 to 10700.....then correct to 10500.....then go up to 11500.....but in between so many small ups and downs keep on happening.....many small changes happened but the trajectory of the market was up and up...... but because there were so many small ups and downs changes that our brain could not interpret and read that the market is going up and we should participate in the upwards trend.....
These anomally which we have will never allow us to take advantage of the market........
Uppar jayega......nechha aayegaa......wapass uppar jayega.....wapass.....nechha jayega...... how will you be able to read where the market or stock price is going......
[10:28 AM, 3/22/2019] Jiten Patel: Our brain wants certainty and any uncertainty makes our brain to be away from that particular things...... going up then again going down then again going up..... then again going down create lots of uncertainty doubts in our brain.....so it feels that there is danger in participating in the rally.....so for that reason unknowingly to us a fear is produced by our own brain and keeps us away from participating....
Supposedly if 2008 is considered the bottom of the market cycle where the market was in full fear and pessimism (assuming a scale of "0") to the Euphoric phase of the market cycle which we might experience in the coming years (assuming a scale of 10)....
Then as per my understanding we are currently stAnDing in PHase 5.5 of these structural Bull market Trend......
But one should not forget that it won't be a smooth ride....in these journey towards the euphoric phase there are going to be many 6% .....10%..... and probably one or two18% corrections..... and there will be lots of volatility because of if and buts in between towards the Euphoric journey..... and not to forget hundreds of Stories which will result in market correction..... But I never ever give importance to any stories because they are just noises.....
The assumption is based on psychology and considering the market participation.....
Things which are to be expected in coming years....
SIP monthly figures shooting up to 15000 crore at one given point of time....
Hundreds of IPO issues coming in primary market......
Mother of IPO issue..... like Reliance power
Freely availablity of Money.....
Everyone will become expert in giving stock TIPs.....
In all Social gathering people will discuss only about stock market.....
This Time it is Different and we have Decoupled.....
Senseless Greed of making more and more easy money.....
Penny stocks will rule the stock market
The above are few things which will happen and until unless we don't go through all these phase...... the Euphoric market top as per my understanding is far far away.....
It is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.....
[10:21 AM, 3/22/2019] Jiten Patel: Common Human Bias..... human brain cannot interpret and read small changes happening around its surroundings......and it takes a very long time for the brain to really get to terms that changes are happening but by the time the brain realises these small changes happening..... the changes become so huge and prominent and known to everyone and everybody and thereafter become out of our reach and we are left with nothing..... not understanding small changes happening is a bias given to us by evolution.......so the market takes advantage of these human bias.....
MArket trend supposedly is upwards but market doesn't go up only in one direction......4 days it goes up.....then two days it goes down......then again it goes up 5 days.....then it goes down 3 days......again goes up 4 days..... correct for 2 days......but doing these small changes which becomes difficult for our brain to read the market will travel from 10100 to 10700.....then correct to 10500.....then go up to 11500.....but in between so many small ups and downs keep on happening.....many small changes happened but the trajectory of the market was up and up...... but because there were so many small ups and downs changes that our brain could not interpret and read that the market is going up and we should participate in the upwards trend.....
These anomally which we have will never allow us to take advantage of the market........
Uppar jayega......nechha aayegaa......wapass uppar jayega.....wapass.....nechha jayega...... how will you be able to read where the market or stock price is going......
[10:28 AM, 3/22/2019] Jiten Patel: Our brain wants certainty and any uncertainty makes our brain to be away from that particular things...... going up then again going down then again going up..... then again going down create lots of uncertainty doubts in our brain.....so it feels that there is danger in participating in the rally.....so for that reason unknowingly to us a fear is produced by our own brain and keeps us away from participating....
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