Saturday, June 6, 2020

GENERAL

[12:22 AM, 3/2/2020] Jiten Patel: Biggest source of daily liquidity .....

Forbes list...this guy reaches 02 position 10 days back ...from 48 th position 03 yrs back..When Damani approaches Exchanges for IPO requisite form.....
It nothing wrong for this man to predict on Top of Forbes list very soon....
So risk ...Reward ratio can be nullified......

Buy DMart CMP..2350...
On every fall.....

By end of Dec 2021...Should see near 4500/-

100% return....As per my analysis....Send you my own research report why it should grow with this target.....

 One of the greatest cycle to hold Cash receipt and no credit business chain ......

No risk arising ...As nothing to mfg...

Zero investment.....15 days Credit available with their Supplier chain like HUL... Colgate...ITC.. Britannia..
.....It's not a big deal ...Even during recession ...Or bad times of this bear mkt worldwide....

Last month Dmart entered n finished the deal to Buy 569 Cr property deal on Western Exp Highway on Borivli East side...next to Kora Kendra..Property bought from Cable Corporation of India...

All 196 stores in India are the property of Dmart..Damani only.....

So no question of Debt with Balance Sheet...

Holding property and pledging make it risk free return with reference to Insolvency in future if arises due to bad decision by promoters....
[12:22 AM, 3/2/2020] Jiten Patel: The above is the forwadef message and below is my explanation
[12:23 AM, 3/2/2020] Jiten Patel: I can give fundamental reasons why not to buy DMART at current VALUATIONS but I cannot disclose it and share the information
[12:23 AM, 3/2/2020] Jiten Patel: Dmart Market Cap is @150000 lakh Crore.....

I don't think in any manner whatsoever that DMART is a good Buy at Current Valuation.....

It might be a good company doesn't mean it a good buy at current price.....

If the Value of your Shirt is say @1000/-..... And it is the best shirt in the market doesn't mean you buy it at 10000/-......

It beci a good buy only if it falls to 800/- because the value of the shirt is @1000/-.....

An investor should never ever forget about Tech Bubble of 2000.....

Infosys was a very good company but it's Valuation were very High in 2000 Tech Bubble...... thereafter the price of Infosys collapsed and it took Infosys in @2009  to break the year 2000 price and move Higher......

So one should be very careful in Investing in Hot Fancy Stories at Exorbitant High Prices.....

Also as written that the price of DMART can go to 4300/- but What is the Risk Reward Ratio.....

The Risk Reward Ratio is totally against the Investors at such high Valuations as respect to Current Market Price of DMART......

AND ALWAYS REMEMBER WHAT GOES UP FAST COMES DOWN SUPERFAST......

DMART WHEN ITS DOWN DAYS COMES NO ONE IN THE WORLD WILL WANT TO BUY IT.....

WHAT HAPPENED OF BOSCH..... CUMMINS.....SUN PHARMA.......EICHER......PAGE INDUSTRIES......

LEAVING SUN PHARMA ALL ARE DEBT FREE COMPANIES.......BUT AT THEIR PEAK PRICES THEY ALL WERE EXORBITANTLY PRICED AND VALUATIONS WERE AT SKYROCKET LEVELS.......
[12:23 AM, 3/2/2020] Jiten Patel: We Humans are Completely Biased to Process Information in the Format of PRICES.....SHARE PRICE WILL GO FROM 220/- TO 350/-..
IT IS EASY FOR OUR BRAIN TO PROCESS AND WE CATCH THE IDEA AND WITHOUT GIVING A SECOND THOUGHT WE BUY SHARES..... ANTICIPATING THAT IT MIGHT HAPPEN AND STOCK PRICE WILL GO FROM 220/- TO 350/-......


YES.......AM I RIGHT...

BUT WE HUMANS HAVE A FLAW IN OUR BRAIN SYSTEM SO WE CANNOT PROCESS IN TERMS OF VALUATIONS..... PROBABILITIES......RISK REWARD RATIO......

BECAUSE OF THESE NATURAL TENDENCY OF BRAIN TO GRAB THE EASIEST INFORMATION WE GET IN TO BIG FINANCIAL PROBLEMS AND PLAY WITH OUR HARD EARNED MONEY......
THE FIRST INFORMATION IS EASY FOR THE BRAIN TO PROCESS BUT THE SECOND PROCESS REQUIRES LOTS OF MENTAL EFFORTS LIKE TO READ THE FUNDAMENTAL OF THE COMPANIES.....TO CALCULATE THE PROBABILITIES.....TO CALCULATE THE RISK REWARD RATIO..... AND OUR BRAIN DOES NOT WANT TO DO THESE MENTAL EFFORTS SO WE FALL FOR THE EASI SOLUTION......THIS STOCK IS VERY GOOD...... FUNDAMENTAL ARE GOOD.....SO BUY AT 220/-....IT WILL GO TO 350/-......

THIS STORY WILL KEEP ON REPEATING AND INFACT 2% OF INVESTORS ARE WAITING FOR 98% OF INVESTORS TO LOSE MONEY ON SUCH INFORMATION
[12:33 AM, 3/2/2020] Jiten Patel: Now from tomorrow onwards only we will be thinking and concerned about whether Nifty from tomorrow will go to 11100 or 11300/-......ie it is always about the Price......

In all our Purchases and Negotiation it is always about PRICE.....
never ever it is about VALUATIONS of the Products you are Purchasing Or the Probabilities or About Risk Reward......

So the Trap of evaluating everything in Prices will always HAUNT US AND GET US IN PROBLEMS AT TIMES OF DECISION MAKING
[11:17 PM, 3/2/2020] Jiten Patel: Finally the Trading Range Support @11032 has been Reached hopefully Now the BOUNCE back has to come in a day to two......as written on 28th February
[5:56 PM, 3/5/2020] Anand bhai Emkay: Left office
[5:56 PM, 3/5/2020] Anand bhai Emkay: tomorrow
[5:58 PM, 3/5/2020] Jiten Patel: P1011
[10:16 AM, 3/6/2020] Anand bhai Emkay: hi
[10:16 AM, 3/6/2020] Anand bhai Emkay: tell me
[10:30 AM, 3/6/2020] Jiten Patel: Finally from 4th February I was writing about Correction which will extend till 10th to 20th March has finally happened.....

AND I will be waiting for the next 20% Correction from the Top of @12400......

Happy long term Investing
[10:35 AM, 3/6/2020] Jiten Patel: As written Earlier Now Waiting for 10years GSec which has a strong support @6:15% to break and go to @5:50% and below also......
[3:25 PM, 3/6/2020] Jiten Patel: As written Earlier NIFTY is at its Rectangular Channel Trendline Support @10900......

So one can see a bounce back to @11400/11600 if the Channel Trendline Support levels @10900 is not Broken in coming few days time......

But once the Rectangular Channel Trendline is Broken on the downside a good NIFty fall on downside can be expected.....

And if it NIFty breaks the Resistance Trendline of the Rectangular Channel on the upside a good move on the upside can be expected
[3:25 PM, 3/6/2020] Jiten Patel: So as what I expect coming Week ie from Wednesday or next week Wednesday NIFTY should end it's Current Correction and should move to @11400/11600.....

It is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also.....
Please consult your Financial Advisor before Investing......
[4:43 PM, 3/6/2020] Jiten Patel: These is what happens to people who Blindly Chase and Buy GREED.....
There are 6000 listed companies in stock market but idiot Investors still want to buy Yes BANK.....

So invest in stock market in a manner that you earn out of this poor idiotic Investors who come to LOSE MONEY.......

Be Wise and Stay Wise.....
[4:42 PM, 3/8/2020] Jiten Patel: From last 3/4 years have been writing in my earlier messages that 10 years GSec yields of Indian Bonds have to go below @5:50% and thereafter the Greatest Bull Market rally will start in the Indian STOCK Markets.....
The coming Decade Indian STOCK Market should OUTPERFORM all the other STOCK Markets of the World and Indian Economy will be on such a Strong Foothold that in Hindsight we might curse ourselves by saying we got a Brilliant Opportunity to Buy STOCKS when the Stock market Corrected in 2020.....
As I had also written Earlier that a 20% Correction in stock market is a Possibility and currently we have already Corrected by around 12/13% ....
There is a probability that we might still Correct more and move towards a Small Bear Phase which might Last till July August 2020.....But it is too early to Guess and Predict as of now......
BUT a Small Bear Phase or a Small Recession of 1 year is a welcome step and can be very good for the market Overall.....
But after this Stop in the Current Uptrend bull market the Road towards Prosperity should be very clear and the STOCK market should start making new Highs for the next  Decade or so......
BUT the Investors who believe in the Indian Economy and Buy in Staggered manner in the current Correction which have a possibility of NIFty levels Reaching @9300/9500 will be the One who will get the opportunity to create Immense wealth because the Current Dark Clouds will pass away and Sunshine is not far off Once the Dark Clouds of CORONA VIRUS fares away......

It is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also......
Please consult your Financial Advisor before Investing......
[9:06 AM, 3/9/2020] Jiten Patel: P1011
[9:45 AM, 3/9/2020] Jiten Patel: The DOWNTREND for 10 years GSec have started.....
Strong support @6:22% is Broken.....if it closes below @6:10%.....
If it closes below @6:10% then the next TGT lvls @5:20%......

AND Once it goes below @5:20% the biggest Bull market should start WHICH should last till 2028/2030 .....

BUT the current Correction is a good opportunity to invest for next 10 years or so......

IT is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also......
Please consult your Financial Advisor before Investing
[10:11 AM, 3/9/2020] Jiten Patel: Friends please note one Thing in the current Correction don't listen to the Media and So Called Expert Analyst.....
They will completely misguide you by creating Panic and Fear in the Investors Mindset Psychologically......
The Current Correction had to happen and it is happening irrespective of CORONA VIRUS......
Infact the Pandemic Event of CORONA VIRUS will be a good investment opportunity Once this Correction GETS Over .....

So it is very important to be invested for the long term and a good opportunity to buy Excellent STOCKS....... for the long term.....

The NIFty will Correct for 20%....25% or 30% ie @ 10000......9500 or 8400  nobody knows as of today but if you Miss buying good STOCKS in Correction and in staggered manner a golden opportunity can b…
[11:21 AM, 3/9/2020] Jiten Patel: There are and so many things to be learned in All Financial Markets and biggest amongst all was and is to learn from Warren Buffett.....
From last so many years Warren Buffett is sitting on a Cash Pile of 130 billion USD dollars......
Even when the S&P 500 was going up he maintained and stuck to his principles and did not invest and sat on the Cash Pile.....
I can understand the Psychologically Behaviour of FOMO he must be facing when the USA Markets were going up......
But he was waiting patiently for the Markets to fall down and Correct to his investment levels.......
Now if the market goes in a Mini Bear 🐻 phase and Corrects substantially I think he will deploy his Cash of Billions to buy good fundamental companies and will make a KILLING for sure in the long term Investing......
[11:29 AM, 3/9/2020] Jiten Patel: Most Important Thing......

If any one have the Courage to Buy STOCKS in the current Correction......
Then don't Buy AVERAGE and PENNY STOCKS.....
Buy good Fundamental STOCKS...... because when Mr. Market gives you an opportunity to Buy in Correction or in mini Bear Phase Buy the best and number one STOCKS in the sector.......
The biggest mistake Investors do and make is throwing good money after bad one......ie they try to AVERAGE the price of the STOCK they have Purchased earlier...... Yes if the company is good you can buy and AVERAGE at lower bottom Prices.......
But if the company is not good you have Purchased earlier don't AVERAGE and instead invest the money in other good companies which are the leaders in their sector.......

It is my personal opini…
[10:03 PM, 3/9/2020] Jiten Patel: NIFty today Completed 17% Correction..... tomorrow and in coming few days let's see whether NIFty touches levels of @10000 and COMPLETE the 20% Correction......
BUT I think THese week should be the last week of Correction and from 16th/17 th March onwards NIFty should start going upwards.....
ALSO Once the NIFty course Corrects it's current down trend the Pull Back rally Upwards is of Atmost Importance and HOW LONG THE upwards rally sustains and how much NIFty goes up is very important......

IT is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also......
[10:50 PM, 3/9/2020] Jiten Patel: The next fall in NIFTY will be thanks to Axis Bank and ICICI BANK...... Hopefully.......
[11:06 PM, 3/9/2020] Jiten Patel: Today I will give you one correlation in USA S&P 500.....
Somewhere in the years between 1970 and 1972 S&P500 MADE a Low of @61....
Then S&P500 went up till the year 1984 and made a High of @337.....
Then from a Life time High of @337 it Corrected to @216..... just within 4 months.....a Correction of almost 35%......

Now in 2007 s&p500 MADE a Low of 667.....
Then in 2020 it made a Life time High of @3390.... and from lifetime high the S& P500 has started Correction.....

Now from the above correlation of the above two data you can see a very good similarities.....

61..............337
667.............3390

So if the first scenario is repeated again then one can expect a Correction of @30% in s&p500......
AND if NIFty is to follow the same then God help us..…
[1:05 PM, 3/10/2020] Jiten Patel: Nifty TGT Range for FY 2020/21.....

High.....@13600
Low.....@8550

Happy holi to all.....

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