[3:52 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: Nifty TGT lvls for FY 20/21 as per my READING......
LOW ......@8400
LOW WORST CASE.....@7100 ( Pro Rata wise..... In 40 years of market history it has happened only once)
HIGH.....@14000......
So there is 90% Probabilities of Nifty range 8400/14000......
So there is 10% Probabilities of Nifty range 7100/14000......
It is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also.....
I am not a certified financial advisor......
Please consult your Financial Advisor before Investing......
[3:52 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: Above had sent earlier..... again sending it
[8:21 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: Friends today I like to tell all of you don't think of Short term of 2 years or 3 years .......
Think Big of 2028 or 2030......
We are going up Big Big time from where we are.....
IT is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also..... please consult your Financial Advisor....
I am not a certified financial advisor......
[10:45 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: 2008 low.....2250.....
2020 HIGH.....12400...…
Cagr 15%......
2008 low......2250.....
2030 High......53000....
Cagr........15.50%
2020 low 7512.....
2030 high......53000....
Cagr......21%
Happy long term Investing
Friends what I am sending in my article no one will tell you or no one will ever think of doing it .........
[11:01 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: Hypotheses of Business
Supposedly say a business is gone Bankrupt and is declared an NPA business......
And thereafter the business is auction and a New business owner COMES and by the business......
The new owner is flooded with money and is a billionaire.....
So he will pump money in the business and will revive it.......
The Business in India in Corona Virus Pandemic have gone down......80% will survive and 20% might not survive.....
But finally the government will have to will definitely intervine to take care of the Economy and will be forced to pump money in the Economy......
As previously I had sent the Chart of money supply in the Economy......
Eventually Once Corona Virus gets Over everything has to go up and up......
But there will be many [11:01 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: hiccups on the way......
IT is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also........
[2:20 PM, 6/6/2020] Jiten Patel: HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING........Let’s say I took that $20 and invested it in the stock market, which I can expect to return an average of 10% per year.
After three months, that $20 would grow to a whopping $20.48. Compare that to the $40 that was offered.
After a year, that $20 would grow to $22. Compare that to the $80 that was offered.
After three years, that $20 would grow to $26.62. Compare that to the $140 that was offered.
Now, 10% growth is a pretty nice low-effort investment return. You’ll be hard pressed to beat it consistently, year after year. Wise financial people would happily invest almost all of their money into things that returned 10% per year like clockwork.
Yet, the average person won’t just automatically take a 1,600% annual return because they won’t wait three months for the payoff. That’s the average annual return you’re getting if $20 turns into $40 in three months.
Is it really surprising that people aren’t lined up to invest everything they can to get a 10% average annual return?
Here’s another way of looking at the same issue.
Let’s say I offered to give you $20 today or $21 tomorrow, a delay in payment of a single day. Which would you take? Most would just grab that $20 today.
Now, let’s say I offered to give you $20 in 30 days or $21 in 31 days. We’re still talking about a delay in payment of a single day, but in that case, most people would take the $21 and wait an extra day.
(This phenomenon is very common and occurs at many different dollar amounts and time spans, as found in this study.)
Why do these things occur? The reason’s simple: We are extremely sensitive to the short term and much less sensitive to the long term.
Waiting a day right now seems like much more of an issue than waiting a day a month from now, so we will virtually always postpone that delay.
Having $20 in hand right now sounds just as good to most people as $40 in hand three months from now. Reduce that money in three months by just a little and most people would prefer the $20 in hand right away.
This is also a key element in why we tend to procrastinate. Doing a hard task now seems unpleasant and doing something fun now seems much more pleasant. However, the difference between doing an unpleasant hard task this weekend and a pleasant fun activity this weekend seems much less impactful. So, since the impact seems much bigger now, we choose to do the fun thing. Off to Netflix we go!
Most of us practice some hyperbolic discounting by default. We do it when we’re impatient or when we procrastinate or when we choose to spend frivolously rather than investing. Hyperbolic discounting is all about weighing your current desires over your future desires and needs, even if those future desires and needs may end up being far more important and valuable.
So, how do we overcome hyperbolic discounting? While I’m far from perfect at avoiding the hyperbolic discounting trap, here are some things I do to help nip it in the bud.
I try to put my current self in the shoes of my “future self.” If I put away $20 now, is my future self 20 years from now, probably in retirement, going to be happy that there’s approximately $100 more in that retirement account? Would the feeling of having another $100 exceed whatever fleeting joy I might get out of blowing that $20 today? I try to make that vision of my future self as real as I can, and the more effective I am at it, the more desirable saving for the future becomes.
I do the same with procrastination. I try to visualize as realistically as I can what I might do this weekend if I had a big block of free time. What would that be like? Then I compare that to the time-wasting thing I might do right now and, generally, the thing on the weekend appears much better. I use that as a motivation to do hard things now, which is why my weekdays sometimes seem like they’re packed to the gills with productive activity.
Establish big long-term goals, figure out a plan to get there, and think about the upside of that plan regularly. Where do you want to be in 10 years? Twenty years? Make that picture as clear in your mind’s eye as you can.
Now, what can you do today to take a step closer to that goal?
For me, this is a constant motivation to do something hard today so that I can be in a better place tomorrow. I envision myself as a healthy, wealthy, and wise person enjoying early retirement, working at a charity or working on a novel or exploring a national park and feeling good and happy with my wife and with my relationship with my children and having lots of good friends. What do I need to do today to make that amazing life happen? What do I need to do today to make sure that some aspects of it start happening now?
This eats into hyperbolic discounting because I’m focusing so intently on the big long-term goal. It inflates the value of that long-term goal in my head, and thus changes the terms of choosing between the short-term choice and the long-term choice today. I’m basically putting the finger on the “long-term” side of the scale to compensate for my own hyperbolic discounting.
When you’re feeling strongly motivated, make it easier to make good choices again in the near future. On a good day, I try really hard to ride that train of energy and motivation until the last drop. On a good writing day, I write and outline as much as possible so that on later days, I can devote full days to reading and brainstorming, which is a much healthier and efficient work cycle. On a high energy day, I do household tasks all day long, particularly ones that involve spending time and energy now to save money in the long run (like doing a meal prep day). This helps because then it becomes easier to make financially efficient choices down the road (with meals prepped in the freezer, I can just easily eat at home).
I try not to waste energetic days so that it’s okay for me to have lower energy days at other times and it’s also okay for me to have blocks of time later on to do more meaningful activities. I don’t feel guilty about spending a day doing hobby things on the weekend if I knocked it out of the park all week, so I try to knock it out of the park all week.
Automate, automate, automate. Whenever I’ve realized that something is clearly a good long-term choice, I try my best to automate that choice so that I actually have to take action to undo it.
For example, I automatically save for retirement each month, and my wife does the same. We save automatically for things like car purchases. We pay as many of our bills automatically as we can. I’ll do things like put a meal in the slow cooker in the morning so that supper is basically “automatic” that evening.
The reason that automation is so strong is that I only have to overcome hyperbolic discounting for a moment – the moment I set up that automation. After that, I have to actually put forth more effort to undo the automation than to just keep riding the wave.
In the end, hyperbolic discounting – our bias to way overvalue the present as compared to the future – is a known bias that almost all of us have. However, financial and personal success is often the result of overcoming and resisting hyperbolic discounting.
LOW ......@8400
LOW WORST CASE.....@7100 ( Pro Rata wise..... In 40 years of market history it has happened only once)
HIGH.....@14000......
So there is 90% Probabilities of Nifty range 8400/14000......
So there is 10% Probabilities of Nifty range 7100/14000......
It is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also.....
I am not a certified financial advisor......
Please consult your Financial Advisor before Investing......
[3:52 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: Above had sent earlier..... again sending it
[8:21 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: Friends today I like to tell all of you don't think of Short term of 2 years or 3 years .......
Think Big of 2028 or 2030......
We are going up Big Big time from where we are.....
IT is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also..... please consult your Financial Advisor....
I am not a certified financial advisor......
[10:45 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: 2008 low.....2250.....
2020 HIGH.....12400...…
Cagr 15%......
2008 low......2250.....
2030 High......53000....
Cagr........15.50%
2020 low 7512.....
2030 high......53000....
Cagr......21%
Happy long term Investing
Friends what I am sending in my article no one will tell you or no one will ever think of doing it .........
[11:01 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: Hypotheses of Business
Supposedly say a business is gone Bankrupt and is declared an NPA business......
And thereafter the business is auction and a New business owner COMES and by the business......
The new owner is flooded with money and is a billionaire.....
So he will pump money in the business and will revive it.......
The Business in India in Corona Virus Pandemic have gone down......80% will survive and 20% might not survive.....
But finally the government will have to will definitely intervine to take care of the Economy and will be forced to pump money in the Economy......
As previously I had sent the Chart of money supply in the Economy......
Eventually Once Corona Virus gets Over everything has to go up and up......
But there will be many [11:01 PM, 6/5/2020] Jiten Patel: hiccups on the way......
IT is my personal opinion and view only and not a recommendation to buy or sell and I reserved to be proved otherwise also........
[2:20 PM, 6/6/2020] Jiten Patel: HYPERBOLIC DISCOUNTING........Let’s say I took that $20 and invested it in the stock market, which I can expect to return an average of 10% per year.
After three months, that $20 would grow to a whopping $20.48. Compare that to the $40 that was offered.
After a year, that $20 would grow to $22. Compare that to the $80 that was offered.
After three years, that $20 would grow to $26.62. Compare that to the $140 that was offered.
Now, 10% growth is a pretty nice low-effort investment return. You’ll be hard pressed to beat it consistently, year after year. Wise financial people would happily invest almost all of their money into things that returned 10% per year like clockwork.
Yet, the average person won’t just automatically take a 1,600% annual return because they won’t wait three months for the payoff. That’s the average annual return you’re getting if $20 turns into $40 in three months.
Is it really surprising that people aren’t lined up to invest everything they can to get a 10% average annual return?
Here’s another way of looking at the same issue.
Let’s say I offered to give you $20 today or $21 tomorrow, a delay in payment of a single day. Which would you take? Most would just grab that $20 today.
Now, let’s say I offered to give you $20 in 30 days or $21 in 31 days. We’re still talking about a delay in payment of a single day, but in that case, most people would take the $21 and wait an extra day.
(This phenomenon is very common and occurs at many different dollar amounts and time spans, as found in this study.)
Why do these things occur? The reason’s simple: We are extremely sensitive to the short term and much less sensitive to the long term.
Waiting a day right now seems like much more of an issue than waiting a day a month from now, so we will virtually always postpone that delay.
Having $20 in hand right now sounds just as good to most people as $40 in hand three months from now. Reduce that money in three months by just a little and most people would prefer the $20 in hand right away.
This is also a key element in why we tend to procrastinate. Doing a hard task now seems unpleasant and doing something fun now seems much more pleasant. However, the difference between doing an unpleasant hard task this weekend and a pleasant fun activity this weekend seems much less impactful. So, since the impact seems much bigger now, we choose to do the fun thing. Off to Netflix we go!
Most of us practice some hyperbolic discounting by default. We do it when we’re impatient or when we procrastinate or when we choose to spend frivolously rather than investing. Hyperbolic discounting is all about weighing your current desires over your future desires and needs, even if those future desires and needs may end up being far more important and valuable.
So, how do we overcome hyperbolic discounting? While I’m far from perfect at avoiding the hyperbolic discounting trap, here are some things I do to help nip it in the bud.
I try to put my current self in the shoes of my “future self.” If I put away $20 now, is my future self 20 years from now, probably in retirement, going to be happy that there’s approximately $100 more in that retirement account? Would the feeling of having another $100 exceed whatever fleeting joy I might get out of blowing that $20 today? I try to make that vision of my future self as real as I can, and the more effective I am at it, the more desirable saving for the future becomes.
I do the same with procrastination. I try to visualize as realistically as I can what I might do this weekend if I had a big block of free time. What would that be like? Then I compare that to the time-wasting thing I might do right now and, generally, the thing on the weekend appears much better. I use that as a motivation to do hard things now, which is why my weekdays sometimes seem like they’re packed to the gills with productive activity.
Establish big long-term goals, figure out a plan to get there, and think about the upside of that plan regularly. Where do you want to be in 10 years? Twenty years? Make that picture as clear in your mind’s eye as you can.
Now, what can you do today to take a step closer to that goal?
For me, this is a constant motivation to do something hard today so that I can be in a better place tomorrow. I envision myself as a healthy, wealthy, and wise person enjoying early retirement, working at a charity or working on a novel or exploring a national park and feeling good and happy with my wife and with my relationship with my children and having lots of good friends. What do I need to do today to make that amazing life happen? What do I need to do today to make sure that some aspects of it start happening now?
This eats into hyperbolic discounting because I’m focusing so intently on the big long-term goal. It inflates the value of that long-term goal in my head, and thus changes the terms of choosing between the short-term choice and the long-term choice today. I’m basically putting the finger on the “long-term” side of the scale to compensate for my own hyperbolic discounting.
When you’re feeling strongly motivated, make it easier to make good choices again in the near future. On a good day, I try really hard to ride that train of energy and motivation until the last drop. On a good writing day, I write and outline as much as possible so that on later days, I can devote full days to reading and brainstorming, which is a much healthier and efficient work cycle. On a high energy day, I do household tasks all day long, particularly ones that involve spending time and energy now to save money in the long run (like doing a meal prep day). This helps because then it becomes easier to make financially efficient choices down the road (with meals prepped in the freezer, I can just easily eat at home).
I try not to waste energetic days so that it’s okay for me to have lower energy days at other times and it’s also okay for me to have blocks of time later on to do more meaningful activities. I don’t feel guilty about spending a day doing hobby things on the weekend if I knocked it out of the park all week, so I try to knock it out of the park all week.
Automate, automate, automate. Whenever I’ve realized that something is clearly a good long-term choice, I try my best to automate that choice so that I actually have to take action to undo it.
For example, I automatically save for retirement each month, and my wife does the same. We save automatically for things like car purchases. We pay as many of our bills automatically as we can. I’ll do things like put a meal in the slow cooker in the morning so that supper is basically “automatic” that evening.
The reason that automation is so strong is that I only have to overcome hyperbolic discounting for a moment – the moment I set up that automation. After that, I have to actually put forth more effort to undo the automation than to just keep riding the wave.
In the end, hyperbolic discounting – our bias to way overvalue the present as compared to the future – is a known bias that almost all of us have. However, financial and personal success is often the result of overcoming and resisting hyperbolic discounting.
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